Severe Thunderstorm Warning 21, NWS Baltimore/Washington

954 
WWUS51 KLWX 261751
SVSLWX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
151 PM EDT Tue Apr 26 2022

VAC015-079-125-165-820-261801-
/O.CAN.KLWX.SV.W.0021.000000T0000Z-220426T1800Z/
Nelson VA-Rockingham VA-Greene VA-Augusta VA-City of Waynesboro VA-
151 PM EDT Tue Apr 26 2022

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN NELSON...SOUTH
CENTRAL ROCKINGHAM...WESTERN GREENE...AND EAST CENTRAL AUGUSTA
COUNTIES AND THE EASTERN CITY OF WAYNESBORO IS CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has weakened.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3804 7862 3814 7871 3825 7863 3807 7850
TIME...MOT...LOC 1751Z 250DEG 24KT 3816 7863 

$$

VAC003-261800-
/O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0021.000000T0000Z-220426T1800Z/
Albemarle VA-
151 PM EDT Tue Apr 26 2022

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 PM EDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN ALBEMARLE COUNTY...

At 151 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Free Union, or
11 miles northwest of Charlottesville, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to 
         fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage 
         homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed 
         trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured 
         light objects may become projectiles.

Locations impacted include...
Free Union, Ivy, White Hall and Flordon. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3804 7862 3814 7871 3825 7863 3807 7850
TIME...MOT...LOC 1751Z 250DEG 24KT 3816 7863 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

JMG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1024 AM EDT Tue Apr 26 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the area this afternoon. High pressure
will build southward from Canada from Wednesday through the end
of the week. A warm front will approach on Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Visible satellite imagery clearly showed the outline of low
clouds on the cool side of a wedge front as of mid morning,
generally north of I-64 east of the Blue Ridge and into the far
eastern West Virginia panhandle. These areas will stay
relatively cooler and more stable for much of the day, though
the clouds should slowly erode into the afternoon hours.

Meanwhile, thicker clouds bearing rain showers were encroaching
upon the Allegheny Highlands as of mid morning. This is in
association with a cold front approach from the Ohio River
Valley. This front will sweep across the Mid-Atlantic this
afternoon, with much of the latest high resolution model
guidance as well as near term trends in mesoanalysis suggesting
convection may develop as early as noon over the central
Shenandoah Valley. Cloud streets are evident in this area, and
although instability is relatively weak (a few hundred J/kg),
forcing along the front and some added dynamics aloft in a
moderate deep layer shear environment may result in a few
stronger updrafts capable of producing gusty winds and perhaps
small hail this afternoon. The main corridor for any strong to
perhaps severe thunderstorms looks to be from Rockingham and
Augusta Counties eastward through the Charlottesville and
Fredericksburg areas, and then into extreme southern Maryland.

Further north, a band of showers with perhaps a few embedded
thunderstorms rooted above the surface are expected, along with
a wind shift to the northwest and a few gusts to around 30 mph
as the front crosses.

Once the front sweeps offshore in the evening, a gusty northwest
wind will ensue ushering in much cooler air overnight tonight. Lows
tonight will be noticeably cooler than last night with temperatures
dropping into the lower to middle 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Dry conditions and colder than normal temperatures and near frost
and freeze conditions expected Wednesday night and again Thursday
night. Daytime temperatures may struggle to reach 60 degrees on
Wednesday and Thursday. Nighttime temperatures will be widespread
middle 30s with near or below freezing temperatures along I-81 and
west.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Blocky/slow moving upper level pattern will be in place to start
the long term. For Friday and Saturday, Canadian high pressure
will likely remain in place between upper level lows over the
Rockies/Plains and Canadian Maritimes. After below normal
temperatures continue through the day, frost concerns could
renew Friday night as winds will be less of an issue. Saturday
should see some moderation to the airmass.

Surface low will approach the upper Great Lakes by Sunday with a
warm front extending southeast and approaching our area. This
front may struggle making it through the area given strong high
pressure to the north and displacement from forcing. However,
there may be enough moisture/lift for some showers. While models
generally agree the upper low to the northwest will open early
next week, spread increases on how systems will progress
thereafter. Some low rain chances will continue into Monday due
to the disparate solutions. Temperatures should be closer to or
even above normal by this time as the Canadian airmass loses
influence, even if the surface front lingers nearby.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Stratus should slowly lift through 18z, with VFR then prevailing
through Thursday night, although there could be some restrictions
with showers and a few thunderstorms this afternoon. Winds
northwest 5 to 10 knots late this morning and afternoon. Wind
gusts higher in showers and any thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening, especially in the CHO area, though a few gusts of 20-25
kts are possible into the metros as the front crosses 20z-00z.
Winds 10 knots tonight out of the NW with gusts to 20 kts.
Winds northwest 15 to 20 knots gusts 25 to 30 knots Wednesday
through Thursday night.

VFR conditions and light winds expected Friday and Saturday with
high pressure.

&&

.MARINE...
Special Marine Warnings may be needed late this afternoon and early
evening with heavy showers and gusty thunderstorms, mainly near
southern Maryland. Otherwise, Small Craft Advisories are in
effect late this afternoon through Wednesday night. Threshold
gales could occur on Wednesday into Wednesday evening, but
confidence is low. Breezy conditions continue into Thursday but
at slightly lesser speeds.

Winds should weaken Friday as high pressure takes a stronger
hold, though it still could be close to SCA thresholds. North to
northwest winds will continue into Saturday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tidal anomalies will remain elevated through today until
stronger northwest winds push the water out tonight. At this
time, a few of the more sensitive locations may reach caution
stage, but flooding is not expected.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EDT
     Thursday for ANZ530>543.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ADS/DHOF
NEAR TERM...KLW/DHOF
SHORT TERM...KLW
LONG TERM...ADS
AVIATION...ADS/KLW/DHOF
MARINE...ADS/KLW/DHOF
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ADS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1112 AM EDT Tue Apr 26 2022

ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ008-011-013-014-016>018-504-506-508-
VAZ052>057-271515-
Chesapeake Bay north of Pooles Island MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Sandy Point to North Beach MD-
Chesapeake Bay from North Beach to Drum Point MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point MD to Smith Point VA-
Tidal Potomac from Key Bridge to Indian Head MD-
Tidal Potomac from Indian Head to Cobb Island MD-
Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island MD to Smith Point VA-
Patapsco River including Baltimore Harbor-
Chester River to Queenstown MD-Eastern Bay-
Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little Choptank River-
Patuxent River to Broomes Island MD-
Tangier Sound and the inland waters surrounding Bloodsworth
Island-District of Columbia-Cecil-Southern Baltimore-
Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert-
Central and Southeast Montgomery-Central and Southeast Howard-
Southeast Harford-Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax-
Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Spotsylvania-
King George-
1112 AM EDT Tue Apr 26 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Maryland portion of the
Chesapeake Bay, Tidal Potomac River, and I-95 corridor through
central Maryland, northern Virginia, and District of Columbia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Showers and thunderstorms may produce strong winds on the waters
this afternoon and early evening, mainly south of Drum Point on
the Chesapeake Bay and downstream of the 301 bridge on the
Potomac River. Also, thunderstorms may produce isolated wind
damage from near Fredericksburg to southern Maryland.

Gale conditions are possible over the waterways late tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Gale conditions are possible over the waterways Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MDZ003>006-503-505-507-VAZ025>031-036>040-050-051-501-502-505>508-
WVZ050>053-055-271515-
Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-
Northwest Montgomery-Northwest Howard-Northwest Harford-Augusta-
Rockingham-Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page-Warren-Clarke-Nelson-
Albemarle-Greene-Madison-Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper-
Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-
Eastern Loudoun-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-
Central Virginia Blue Ridge-Hampshire-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson-
Hardy-
1112 AM EDT Tue Apr 26 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern West
Virginia, northern and central Virginia, and central and western
Maryland.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Thunderstorms may produce isolated instances of wind damage near
and south of Interstate 64 this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Frost or freeze conditions are possible during the overnight and
early morning hours Wednesday night through early Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MDZ001-501-502-VAZ503-504-WVZ501>506-271515-
Garrett-Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany-
Western Highland-Eastern Highland-Western Grant-Eastern Grant-
Western Mineral-Eastern Mineral-Western Pendleton-
Eastern Pendleton-
1112 AM EDT Tue Apr 26 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Allegheny Front
counties in western Maryland, eastern West Virginia, and Highland
County Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Gusty winds may produce a few instances of wind damage Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

DHOF