Severe Thunderstorm Warning 101, NWS Baltimore/Washington

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
248 PM EDT Thu Jun 2 2022

.SYNOPSIS...

A strong upper level shortwave will combined with a strong
surface trough to bring strong to severe thunderstorms to the
region through this evening. High pressure builds in Friday and
remains in place through early next week. Multiple fronts may
affect the region during the middle and later parts of next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Clearing skies this morning has led to an increasing
destabilized environment this afternoon. Diurnal heating has
led to temperatures in mid to upper 80s this afternoon with SFC
dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. SPC mesoanalysis indicates
that widespread CAPE values of 2000 j/kg with DCAPE over 1000
along and east of the I-95 corridor. Storms have broken out in
multiple areas where we are observing surface convergence due to
a strong surface trough. A strong westerly flow along with 34
to 40 knots of mid-level shear may lead to some organized lines
of storms. SPC HREF has 4 hr probability for a max updraft
greater than 20 of 50 to 70 percent along the I-95 corridor.
Strong thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage
through this afternoon with the main threat window being 2pm to
9pm this evening. A SVR watch has been issued for most of the
region until 9pm with the main threats being damaging winds and
large hail.

A strong south to southwesterly flow has led to increasing
advection of warm and moist air into the region this afternoon.
PW's are expected to increase into the 1.7 to 2.0 inch range
this afternoon. Storm motion overall should be progressive this
afternoon but training of multiple storms could lead to extended
periods of heavy rain. Rain rates of an inch to an inch and a
half of precipitation will be possible with storms this
afternoon with isolated rain rates between 2 and 3 inches per
hour possible. HREF 3 hr PMM indicates there is a the potential
that some areas could receive locally higher amounts of 2 to 3
inches over a 3 hour period.

The threat for strong to severe thunderstorms should start to
diminish after 9pm this evening with skies expected to slowly
clear through early Friday morning. Overnight lows will be mild
in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

High pressure will build into our region Friday and remain in
place through the weekend. Dry conditions along with partly
cloudy to mostly clear conditions expected through Saturday.
Cooler temperatures should return Saturday with highs expected
in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Overnight lows will be mild in
the 50s and lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

High pressure, mostly dry conditions and seasonable temperatures
will prevail through the tail of the weekend and into the early work
week as a zonal flow pattern sets up. Model guidance is in fairly
good agreement with a series of shortwaves and weak surface fronts
followed by a cold front approaching the area Tuesday/Wednesday. The
GFS has come more inline with the CMC and ECMWF in recent runs. Some
isolated showers are possible Sunday/Monday from a shortwave and
nearby frontal boundary, but otherwise the best chance for
precipitation is Tuesday/Wednesday with the stronger cold front.
From there, with a zonal pattern in place, there is the potential
for the front to stall in the region, acting as a focus for
convection and unsettled conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Strong to severe thunderstorms may affect all terminals through
this evening. Damaging wind gusts and large hail will be
possible with these storms. The threat for storms should taper
off for all terminals after 8 pm this evening. Skies will
slowly scatter out overnight and into Saturday leading to a
return of VFR conditions with winds becoming west to
northwesterly.

VFR conditions are expected Sunday and most of Monday. Conditions
may deteriorate at times on Monday with any showers or thunderstorms
that move through.

&&

.MARINE...

Strong storms will likely impact our waters through this
evening. Strong winds and large hail will be the main threat
for boaters through 9 pm this evening. The threat for strong
storms should taper off by midnight with few showers possible
into early Friday. SubSCA conditions should return Friday
evening and continue through Sunday.

Winds are expected to approach SCA criteria in the afternoon of
Sunday and Monday, but should subside overnight.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 6 PM EDT Friday for
     ANZ530>543.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...CAS
AVIATION...JMG/CAS
MARINE...JMG/CAS

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