Wind Advisory 11, NWS Lubbock, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
638 AM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022

.AVIATION...
LLWS will come to an end shortly after sunrise this morning as
stronger winds begin to mix to the surface. Southwest winds will
quickly become gusty with sustained winds of 25-35 kts by late
this morning with stronger wind gusts this afternoon. These strong
winds will lead to blowing dust at KLBB and KPVW reducing the
visibility below VFR conditions for much of the afternoon. During
the strongest wind gusts these visibilities will drop into IFR
criteria especially at KLBB. The strongest wind gusts will come to
an end shortly after sunset however winds will remain breezy
through the night. Early tomorrow morning a cold front will drop
south through the area leading to a northerly wind shift but
continued breezy winds.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 426 AM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022/

SHORT TERM...
Water vapor imagery this morning shows an upper-level low located
over the southern Great Basin. This low will open up as it moves
across the Desert Southwest today ending up across the southern
Rockies tonight. Strong upper-level wind fields have begun to
overspread the forecast area this morning and are expected to peak
late this afternoon and evening as a 90kt 500 mb jet streak moves
across the region. The TTU SODAR at Reese Center is also indicating
that a 45 kt LLJ has developed early this morning and with the
approaching system this jet won't dissipate much through day.
Additionally, a surface low will continue to deepen through the day
across western Kansas which will lead to increased sustained west-
southwesterly winds. Model guidance continues to indicate that our
early morning high cloud cover should dissipate late this morning
with skies remaining mostly clear for the western half of the
forecast area through the early afternoon. This full insolation will
allow us to effectively mix up to 600 mb allowing for very strong
surface wind gusts up to 70 mph to reach the surface for locations
on the Caprock. Due to this potential we have upgraded the High Wind
Watch to a High Wind Warning for most of the South Plains and far
southern Texas Panhandle. The greatest potential to see these
damaging wind gusts will be this afternoon and early evening as the
core of the stronger winds aloft move over the forecast area. The
next slug of moisture ahead of the upper-level system should arrive
over the forecast area late this afternoon and early evening leading
to increasing cloud cover once again which should dampen the High
Wind gust potential. However, with the increasing moisture at mid-
levels and cooling of temperatures aloft there is some signal that
elevated showers may develop across the eastern South Plains and
shift eastward. Closer to the surface, temperatures today will be
5-10 degrees cooler than yesterday.

With very dry sub- cloud air remaining in place tonight this
could lead to a few microbursts with the potential to see wind
gusts to 70 mph possible (a virga shower early this morning near
Hart had a 69 mph gust recorded at the Hart West Texas Mesonet
Site and the overall environment won't change much tonight). Winds
will slowly dissipate late tonight but remain breezy for much of
the night. Fire weather details can be found in the fire weather
discussion below.

As the stronger lift associated with the approaching trough
overspreads the area tonight a few thunderstorms should develop
along and east of the dryline which should be located across the
eastern Rolling Plains. With MUCAPE values increasing to around
750 J/Kg to the east of the boundary along with strong deep layer
shear these thunderstorms may become strong to severe. With strong
winds aloft if thunderstorms can become established there would
be the potential for a few strong wind gusts to be brought to the
surface before these storms quickly move east of the forecast
area. Latest high resolution guidance indicates that Stonewall and
southeastern King Counties will have the highest chances of
seeing any precipitation with the rest of the forecast area
remaining dry this evening. A cold front will move across the
region beginning early tomorrow morning and just behind this front
there should be a few light showers that mainly impact the far
southern Texas Panhandle and northern South Plains. /WCI

LONG TERM...
As the potent system bringing the strong wind, dust and other
hazards associated with it today, begins to exit east tonight, we
will not yet be finished with the broader synoptic upper level
trough responsible for it. A strong secondary upper level closed
low will rotate south and east from the Northern Plains through
the Central Plains tomorrow and Thursday. Once the secondary
trough exits the region, a lower amplitude and progressive
longwave pattern will take hold for the remainder of the week and
weekend bringing chances for some light rain early Thursday and
Friday and again for the beginning of next week.

Before hoping for some much needed rainfall though, strong N-NW
surface winds in the wake of todays trough may necessitate a Wind
Advisory across the southern Texas Panhandle, northern South Plains
and Rolling Plains from sunrise Wednesday until around noon, when
the surface pressure gradient begins to ease and surface ridging
settles in over the Rolling Plains.

As the secondary upper trough axis approaches Wednesday
afternoon/evening, surface pressure falls over SE New Mexico and the
Permian Basin will produce chances for light rain in an area of
deformation over our CWA into the late evening hours of Wednesday
and early overnight hours Thursday morning. Shortwave ridging on
Thursday will produce light surface winds and slightly cooler than
normal temperatures for a pleasant Spring day across our area. There
is a limited amount of instability with the progressive upper trough
on Friday that will brush our northern zones with rainfall chances
and isolated thunderstorms Friday afternoon/evening, especially
across the northern Rolling Plains. Low amplitude ridging to zonal
flow will take us through the weekend with warmer than normal
temperatures expected Sunday along with breezy S/SW surface winds

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 11 PM CDT this
evening for TXZ021>044.

High Wind Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this
evening for TXZ021>031-033>036-039-040.

&&

58/58/55

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