Severe Thunderstorm Warning 73, NWS Lubbock, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
630 PM CDT Mon May 16 2022

.AVIATION...
Continued VFR outside of TS. Area of TS from near Dora, NM
southeast to Seminole continues to be the concern through 11 PM
or so from LBB to PVW. This convection will likely pose a risk for
strong winds and low visbys in blowing dust, although some hail
is also possible at times. Uncertainty increases a bit toward CDS
as this initial round of storms may falter, although additional
activity is likely at some point tonight. Convection should clear
the terminals from W-E overnight with gusty S-SW winds by mid-
morning. Outside chance exists for spotty TS by late Tuesday
afternoon near CDS, but confidence in this is too low for any
further mention.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 221 PM CDT Mon May 16 2022/

SHORT TERM...
A well defined short wave on water vapor imagery was moving away
from the four-corners region this afternoon. This short wave will
continue to weaken as it moves eastward through the rest of the
afternoon into the evening. At the same time, an upper level ridge
to our southwest will be expanding overhead. The combination of the
short wave and ridge battling will be nearly neutral height changes
this evening. A couple of weak jet maxes around 50-60kt at 250mb or
so will affect the area. One of these is associated with the short
wave while the other is moving around the upper ridge to the
southwest. The combination of these will allow weak upper level
divergence to spread overhead the rest of this afternoon and evening.
Closer to the surface, broad east to southeasterly upslope flow will
continue as a warm front moves back north today. Therefore, no
strong surface convergence is evident in the near surface wind
fields. The boundary layer is slow to mix out this afternoon after
higher surface dew points than expected. Although, this may prove
detrimental to convective chances this evening. This may add to the
convective inhibition being slower to erode or not erode at all.
Areas near the Texas/New Mexico state line stand the best chance of
becoming uncapped late this afternoon with increasing CIN to the
east. Extremely steep mid level lapse rates exist overhead with
values on the order of 8.5-9 C/km. With deeply mixed parcels, this
will yield around 1500 J/kg of instability. However, it will also
generate about 1000-1500 J/kg of DCAPE. Additionally, cloud layer
flow is not impressive for May standards. High based storms with
severe outflow gusts is the most likely scenario from convection
late this afternoon through the evening.

On Tuesday, another short wave will approach from the west. However,
convective chances will be much lower. Surface cyclogenesis in
southeastern Colorado moving into the Oklahoma panhandle will lead
to broad south to southwest low level flow. The dryline will be well
east of the area just west of the I-35 corridor leaving much drier
air in the region. In fact, most of the atmosphere will be dry with
the exception of a little mid level moisture. So, even though we
will have some lift over the area, it will be mostly lifting dry air.

LONG TERM...
Upper flow will generally weaken and become more zonal by midweek
as low amplitude upper troughing meanders over the Desert Southwest.
A weakening cold front will push southward through the TX Panhandle
early Wednesday, but with little in the way of sensible weather
impacts besides a modest increase in low level moisture as hot
temperatures return during the afternoon. Guidance suggests a weak
impulse aloft may result in thunderstorm formation off the high
terrain in SE Colorado Wednesday evening which may drift into the
TX Panhandle overnight. Steering flow is weak and lacks a strong
northerly component and therefore this activity is expected to
remain north of our area, though we can't quite rule out a few
isolated cells infringing on the extreme southern Panhandle during
the late evening. The heat ramps up even more on Thursday as
southwesterly surface flow increases in response to strong surface
cyclogenesis over eastern Colorado. This will drive afternoon
highs into the upper 90s to mid 100s and bring a return of
elevated to potentially critical fire weather conditions across
much of the region.

The upper level flow pattern will begin to amplify on Friday as
deeper upper troughing overspreads much of the NW US. This will
mark the beginning of a period of slightly stronger zonal flow
aloft which is set to last through the weekend as a series of
disturbances passes by well to our north. At the surface, a cold
front will exit from the TX Panhandle into the South Plains on
Friday morning, though the southward progression of the front
during the morning remains uncertain and thus complicates Friday's
high temperature forecast. At this time, it appears surface
troughing over eastern NM and associated westerly flow will be
sufficient to allow afternoon temperatures to warm back into the
90s. A significantly stronger front will surge southward through
the region Friday night, bringing a notable cool-down just in time
for the weekend. Temperatures on Saturday morning are expected to
fall into the upper 40s to lower 50s with pleasant daytime highs
in the 70s and lower 80s expected both Saturday and Sunday.
Forecast uncertainty increases heading into next week, though
ensemble guidance hints at a potential return of better low level
moisture and low precip chances early next week. /DWK

FIRE WEATHER...
Widespread elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions are
expected on Tuesday afternoon. A dryline will move well east of the
region leaving relatively dry air over the South Plains and Rolling
Plains. Temperatures will warm again to near record values and with
the dry air in place, will lead to afternoon relative humidity
values in the single digits. Winds will be strongest in the Rolling
Plains with 20 foot speeds 20-25 mph and 15-20 mph on the Caprock.
There is some uncertainty, however, with areas that could see
rainfall this evening which may limit fire weather potential on
Tuesday. There is a very small chance of isolated dry thunderstorms
to develop on Tuesday afternoon as well as an upper level disturbance
approaches the region. Elevated to potentially critical fire
weather conditions will are expected over much of the region again
on Thursday as hot and breezy weather returns.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening
for TXZ021>044.

&&

99/99/93

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
616 PM CDT Mon May 16 2022

TXZ021>044-172330-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-
Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum-
Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
616 PM CDT Mon May 16 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains, and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for much of the South
Plains, far southern Texas Panhandle and adjacent portions of the
northern Rolling Plains until 1 AM. Scattered strong to severe
thunderstorms are expected to form in eastern New Mexico or along the
state line this evening and move east across the area tonight. The
highest probabilities for severe weather will be over the southern
Panhandle and northern South Plains where damaging wind gusts up to
70 mph along with a few instances of very large hail up to tennis
ball size possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will be possible on the
Caprock and across the Rolling Plains on Tuesday and again on
Thursday. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for the entire area from
10 AM to 9 PM CDT on Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.