Red Flag Warning 25, NWS Lubbock, TX

Bailey County, TX, Briscoe County, TX, Castro County, TX, Childress County, TX, Cochran County, TX, Cottle County, TX, Crosby County, TX, Dickens County, TX, Floyd County, TX, Garza County, TX, Hale County, TX, Hall County, TX, Hockley County, TX, Kent County, TX, King County, TX, Lamb County, TX, Lubbock County, TX, Lynn County, TX, Motley County, TX, Parmer County, TX, Stonewall County, TX, Swisher County, TX, Terry County, TX, Yoakum County, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1219 PM CDT Tue Apr 12 2022

.AVIATION...
VFR is expected to prevail but blowing dust is likely to reduce
visibility at KLBB and KPVW into MVFR category at times. Winds
will veer more northwest after midnight tonight with LLWS possible
at KPVW KLBB after midnight as well.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 254 AM CDT Tue Apr 12 2022/

SHORT TERM...
We remain on track for a warm, windy, and dusty day today. A strong,
deep upper level low centered over eastern Idaho and southwestern
Montana early this morning will move east to a position over eastern
Montana and northeastern Wyoming by the end of the day. A tightening
mid level height gradient and 50-plus knot mid level jet streak
rotating northeastward from eastern New Mexico will result in
increasing southwest winds across the forecast area by mid morning
with peak wind speeds expected early to mid afternoon when mixing
maximizes. The core of stronger winds will clip the northwestern
corner of the forecast area with good potential for meeting high
wind criteria there. Through the heart of the forecast area from the
southwestern corner to the northeast solid wind advisory criteria
wind speeds are expected, while the lower elevations of the southern
Rolling Plains furthest away from the mid level wind max will likely
remain below headline criteria for most/all of the event.

The increased downslope component and strong low level warm
advection will result in high temperatures in the 80s on the Caprock
and 90s to the east. Expected wind speeds will pick up dust with the
greatest amount likely to affect the northwestern counties where
winds are expected to be the strongest and the sandy soils there and
to the west/southwest of there will be easy to lift.

Heading into tonight, only modest decoupling of the boundary layer
is expected as fast flow aloft on the south side of the parent
mid/upper low will keep wind speeds on the breezy side for much of
the night. A cold front moving through the forecast area will bring
some cooler air into the forecast area, although the breezy
downslope component from west-northwest winds will help keep them on
the mild side despite the cold advection.

LONG TERM...
An intensifying synoptic-scale cyclone is forecast to become
vertically stacked and positioned over the northern Great Plains by
14/00Z, with an attendant mid-level jet streak between 80-90 kt
moving over the CWA during the day Wednesday. At the surface, the
Pacific cold front will have cleared the CWA with northwesterly,
post-frontal winds nearing Wind Advisory criteria as vertical mixing
heights ascend to around 600 mb in vicinity of the TX/NM state line
and to around 700 mb along the I-27 corridor eastward into the
Rolling Plains. While the surface pressure gradient will not be
particularly tight across the CWA, the compact 700-500 mb height
gradient combined with the boundary-layer (PBL) mixing depths will
facilitate low-end windy conditions. A sharp increase in theta-e
with height is forecast to be present atop the deep PBL depth in
response to the magnitude of the zonal westerlies aloft, and despite
the strength of the mid-level jet streak overhead, the latter will
inhibit more-efficient downward momentum transport and therefore
dampen the overall strength of wind speeds at the surface. Blowing
dust can be expected throughout the day, particularly across the
Caprock, in addition to a heightened fire danger. Please refer to
the Fire Weather section below for additional information.
Temperatures are forecast to peak in the lower 60s to middle 70s
from west-to-east, respectively, owing to moderate CAA in wake of
the Pacific cold front. Winds will diminish quickly near sunrise,
becoming light and variable after dark area-wide. The combination of
the light winds and a clear sky will enhance near-surface radiative
cooling effects, with morning lows ranging from the middle 20s to
lower 40s from northwest-to-southeast, respectively.

The CWA will remain beneath zonal flow later this week and into the
weekend as the stacked cyclone rotates northward into southwestern
Ontario. Return flow is forecast to re-establish across the region
on Thursday as surface troughing sharpens in response to a lee
cyclone developing in vicinity of the Raton Mesa, with high
temperatures around 5-10 deg F warmer than Wednesday. Medium-range
NWP guidance indicates that surface cyclogenesis will continue into
Friday ahead of a southward-advancing cold front as a few subtle
shortwave perturbations rotate through the low-amplitude ridging,
with frontolysis occurring as the front moves into the CWA by
Saturday. No convection is expected with this front, though another
temperature swing is expected between Friday and Saturday as a
result. Otherwise, the weekend will be very dry and warm with the
potential for another frontal intrusion early next week.

Sincavage

FIRE WEATHER...
A potentially dangerous fire weather scenario will exist today as
another Southern Great Plains Wildfire Outbreak pattern sets up over
the mid-section of the nation. Briefly, wind speeds will ramp up
this morning and remain strong and gusty, especially to the north
and west of a line from Post to Paducah, into early evening. Max
RFTI values of 6 to 8 are expected areawide and these values will be
persistent through the event. Given the extreme state of the fuels,
very rapid growth will be possible with any fire starts.

Critical fire weather conditions are forecast to develop across the
Caprock and Rolling Plains on Wednesday, with the potential for
localized, extremely critical fire weather conditions across the
extreme southwestern Texas Panhandle and northwestern South Plains.
A Pacific cold front will have passed through the region early
Wednesday morning, with northwesterly winds increasing to 25-35 mph
at the 20 foot level with locally higher gusts. Surface temperatures
on Wednesday afternoon will range from the lower 60s to middle-upper
70s from northwest-to-southeast across the Caprock and Rolling
Plains, respectively. The combination of low-end windy conditions
and the extremely dry airmass accentuated by vertical mixing heights
ascending up to 600 mb will result in favorable conditions for
potentially rapid growth and spread of fires, especially across the
extreme southwestern Texas Panhandle and northwestern South Plains,
despite the milder temperatures compared to the previous day. The
Fire Weather Watch remains in effect between 10 AM to 9 PM CDT on
Wednesday across the entire forecast area. Winds will diminish
quickly after dark, becoming light and variable thereafter with
generally poor RH recovery. RH recovery above 30 percent is forecast
to occur along a line from Aspermont extending northwestward to
Friona, and all areas northeast of that line while approaching 40
percent near Childress and vicinity.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for TXZ021>044.

Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
evening for TXZ021>044.

Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ023>026-028>031-
033>036-039>041.

High Wind Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ021-022-027.

&&

99/99/55

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