Red Flag Warning 2, NWS Lubbock, TX

Bailey County, TX, Briscoe County, TX, Castro County, TX, Childress County, TX, Cochran County, TX, Cottle County, TX, Crosby County, TX, Dickens County, TX, Floyd County, TX, Garza County, TX, Hale County, TX, Hall County, TX, Hockley County, TX, Kent County, TX, King County, TX, Lamb County, TX, Lubbock County, TX, Lynn County, TX, Motley County, TX, Parmer County, TX, Stonewall County, TX, Swisher County, TX, Terry County, TX, Yoakum County, TX

592 
WWUS84 KLUB 142358
RFWLUB

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
558 PM CST Fri Jan 14 2022

TXZ021>044-150100-
/O.EXP.KLUB.FW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-220115T0000Z/
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-
Floyd-Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-
Yoakum-Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
558 PM CST Fri Jan 14 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE EXTREME
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE, SOUTH PLAINS, AND ROLLING PLAINS...

Following the passage of a cold front this afternoon, relative
humidity values are slowly rising across the region. Relative
humidity is now higher than 30 percent north of a line from Morton
to Lubbock to Paducah and is expected to rise above 35 percent
across the entire area through the remainder of the evening.
The Red Flag Warning will therefore expire at 6 PM. However,
strong north winds will persist with gusts to 50 mph still 
possible for several more hours before winds weaken slightly
overnight.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1016 PM CST Thu Jan 13 2022

.AVIATION...
VFR will prevail through the forecast period. A strong cold front
will push south through all three terminals from late morning to
early Friday afternoon. Westerly winds out ahead of the strong
northerly winds associated with the cold front will be gusty at
times.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 215 PM CST Thu Jan 13 2022/

SHORT TERM...
Tonight will be rather mild with lows in the low 30s to low 40s.
This will be due to an increase in southwesterly winds responding to
a surface lee trough that is expected to develop ahead of an
approaching upper trough. The source of the upper trough is the
closed low currently over the Pacific Northwest. Upper flow will
become more meridional early tomorrow afternoon as the upper trough
approaches the Central Plains and takes a sharp negative tilt. This
meridional flow will help push a cold front quickly through the
region tomorrow afternoon into early evening. Winds will be near
advisory level as surface pressure rises behind the front average 7
mb over three hours. Dried, cured fuels coupled with windy and dry
conditions will create elevated to near critical fire weather
conditions tomorrow afternoon. For now the Fire Weather Watch will
remain as is. A combination RFD/RFW may be warranted tomorrow
depending on how the system evolved overnight.

LONG TERM...
Beginning on Friday evening, a cold front will be moving through the
area. Strong winds will continue behind the front but from the north
with healthy pressure rises around 8mb/3hr. The surface pressure
gradient and rises will weaken around sunrise Saturday lessening
winds just a bit. The strongest height gradient from the short wave
aloft will pass overhead Saturday morning. This will lead to winds
quickly picking up again after sunrise as strong winds aloft mix
down to the surface. Another result of the front will be
significantly cooler temperatures on Saturday. Temperatures may only
get into the 30s during the day. Early next week will see lee
surface cyclogenesis resulting in downsloping winds and quickly
warming temperatures. This will continue through Tuesday when
another front is expected to move through the region. By mid-week,
models differ in how far south this cold air will move through the
Midwest. Ensemble means generally show a 1035-1040mb surface ridge
moving southeastward from the northern Plains into the Midwest with
the cold air making its way into West Texas. Unfortunately,
measurable precipitation looks to evade the area through at least
next week.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday afternoon
for TXZ021>044.

&&

99/99/55

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
854 PM CST Thu Jan 13 2022

TXZ021>044-150300-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-
Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum-
Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
854 PM CST Thu Jan 13 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Dry, warm, and windy conditions will bring near-critical fire
weather conditions to much of the area on Friday. A Fire Weather
Watch is in effect from 11 AM Friday morning until 6 PM Friday
evening.

Strong north winds will develop on Friday afternoon behind a cold
front. Sustained wind speeds will approach 30 mph across the entire
area, with winds only slightly weakening on Friday night. North
winds will strengthen on Saturday, with sustained wind speeds again
approaching 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph possible. A Wind Advisory
will likely be needed for much of the area during portions of the
period from Friday afternoon through Saturday evening.

Beyond Saturday, the probability for widespread hazardous weather is
low.