Red Flag Warning 13, NWS Lubbock, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1249 AM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022

.AVIATION...
Relatively moist southeast low level flow with a low level jet
overhead early this morning leading to low level wind shear (LLWS)
and also an MVFR cloud layer will move in over the coming several
hours. Solutions indicate potential for light showers to develop
near or just after daybreak just east of KLBB and KPVW and
especially near KCDS. Ceilings at KCDS could approach IFR levels
by daybreak. A strong storm system just west of the area will
move overhead later this afternoon. Instability will increase
enough for thunderstorm chances this afternoon mainly KCDS.
Surface drying expected KLBB and KPVW late morning and afternoon
with relatively strong southwest winds. Then a cold front will
move southward early this evening with the storm still overhead
leading to increasing shower and thunder chances again. This
should favor MVFR ceilings through the upcoming overnight period
and still northwest to north winds near 25 knots. Lots going on
over the next 24 hours. The Storm Prediction Center has indicated
a marginal severe thunderstorm risk over KCDS and close to both
KLBB and KPVW. Keep a close eye on RADAR and ceiling and
visibility trends. RMcQueen

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 918 PM CDT Sun Mar 20 2022/

UPDATE...
The Red Flag Warning has been allowed to expire on schedule at 9
pm as winds ease, temperatures cool and humidity levels rise.
Otherwise, the forecast remains on track. Stratus will fill in
late tonight as low-level moisture eventually arrives on the stout
southerly LLJ. Monday promises to be an interesting weather day
locally as a powerful mid/upper level storm system approaches and
passes. This will include the potential development of elevated
showers and storms Monday morning across roughly the eastern half
of the CWA. Surface-based convection could result in a couple of
strong/severe storms over our eastern sections Monday afternoon,
while a period of elevated to critical fire weather is possible
further west, ahead of a late-day cold front. Our
northwestern/northern counties could even see a little snow to
finish things out Monday night into Tuesday morning. Plenty to pay
attention to over the next 24-36 hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 756 PM CDT Sun Mar 20 2022/

UPDATE...
Winds have dropped below advisory levels a little ahead of
schedule, prompting us to cancel the Wind Advisory. Even so,
solidly breezy southerly winds will continue through the night.
Given cooling temperatures and gradually weakening winds, fire
weather concerns will ease through the evening. A Red Flag Warning
does remain in effect until 9 pm.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 621 PM CDT Sun Mar 20 2022/

AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected for the remainder of this evening and
most of overnight period. Expect LLWS to develop after sunset
tonight at all three terminals. MVFR to IFR ceilings are possible
around sunrise Monday morning. Showers and thunderstorms are
possible late Monday morning into the evening hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 239 PM CDT Sun Mar 20 2022/

SHORT TERM...
Windy conditions will continue across the area through the early
evening hours. Winds will decrease slightly after sunset but will
still remain around the 20 mph range. The upper low currently
nearing the California/Arizona state line will continue pushing
eastward through the night and deepen as it approaches New Mexico.
Surface dewpoints are expected to increase ahead of the upper low as
surface winds become more southeasterly. This will allow for showers
and thunderstorms to develop around sunrise tomorrow morning as a
surface low approaches the southwestern Texas Panhandle. The best
rain chances will exist from around I27/US87 eastward. Thunderstorm
chances will increase, mainly across the Rolling Plains, late
morning into the afternoon as the upper low approaches the
Texas/New Mexico state line and lapse rates steepen producing
MLCAPE around 500-750 J/kg. The main severe threats will be hail
and wind. A brief tornado threat will exist near the surface low
as it moves eastward across the northern Rolling Plains and
southeastern Texas Panhandle. Guidance is in decent agreement with
having most storms east of the FA by mid to late afternoon as the
upper low begins to move overhead. A cold front will begin
pushing into the extreme southwestern Texas Panhandle shortly
before sunset ushering in much cooler temperatures and a chance
for additional precip.

LONG TERM...
By Monday evening, the center of the closed upper low will be
crossing over the Texas Panhandle. Surface low pressure will exit
eastward into Oklahoma, bringing the cold front and associated
northerly wind shift through the entire area. Lower atmospheric
moisture will increase in the wake of the front, and guidance
indicates a deformation band and additional lift will set up over
the TX Panhandle on Monday night as the upper low pulls
northeastward into Oklahoma. This setup suggests a relatively
prolonged period of additional banded precipitation is possible into
Tuesday morning. Hi-res guidance generally supports this scenario
favoring a rather broad area of precip continuing late Monday night
across much of the TX Panhandle and into the northern South/Rolling
Plains. Exactly where this precip occurs and its overall spatial
extent still remains highly uncertain and will depend heavily on
the track of the upper low. Regarding precip type, a gradual
transition to snow is likely by early Tuesday morning across the
far southwestern Panhandle, with precipitation expected to remain
all rain east of the Caprock at this point. Enough elevated
instability will linger to also support a thunder mention for much
of the region on Monday night as well. While there is certainly
the potential for periods of heavy precip under any bands that set
up, any snow that does fall early Tuesday morning is expected to
remain quite wet with marginal surface temperatures near or only
just below freezing. The current snowfall forecast therefore keeps
totals under an inch and limited to the southern Panhandle;
however this setup will need to be watched closely as uncertainty
is still high and there is a nonzero potential for higher snowfall
accumulations across the southern Panhandle.

While general upper longwave troughing will continue to gradually
broaden on Tuesday to eventually encompass much of the central
CONUS, the 500mb low center is progged to remain progressive and
eject northeastward out of Oklahoma by early Tuesday afternoon. The
low levels will accordingly dry out relatively quickly and any
lingering precipitation will end by noon Tuesday. A continued robust
surface pressure gradient will keep north winds strong and near
advisory levels Tuesday with cool temperatures persisting. An
additional impulse will rotate southward along the western edge of
the broad upper trough on Wednesday. At this time it appears the
surface will remain too dry for any notable precip, but enough
midlevel moisture will remain in place to support a chance of
sprinkles across our northwestern zones on Wednesday afternoon.
Upper troughing will depart eastward on Thursday, and warm and dry
conditions will return to the region late this week into the weekend
as a broad upper ridge builds across western North America. /DWK

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

99/99/05

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
901 PM CDT Sun Mar 20 2022

TXZ021>044-220215-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-
Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum-
Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
901 PM CDT Sun Mar 20 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Widespread hazardous weather is not expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Increasing thunderstorm chances Monday afternoon and evening will
include a risk for severe weather from the Rolling Plains into the
eastern South Plains. Large hail near the size of quarters and high
wind gusts to 60 mph will be possible with these storms. Strong
north winds will develop late Monday into Tuesday, with speeds from
25 to 35 mph.

A gradual transition from rain to snow is expected Monday night and
early Tuesday from the central and northern South Plains into the
southern Panhandle. Only very light snow accumulations are expected
with up to one inch possible over the southern Texas Panhandle.