Flash Flood Warning 14, NWS Lubbock, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1245 PM CDT Wed Aug 31 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 244 AM CDT Wed Aug 31 2022

Early morning water-vapor imagery continues to depict the center of
the upper-level low positioned over far southeastern New Mexico. A
plume of moisture continues to be advected northward into the
forecast area and this plume is expected to remain over the forecast
area through the day today as the low continues to slowly drift WSW.
This will allow showers to continue across the region through the
morning hours but with limited instability no thunder is expected.
With the recent rainfall, light winds, and abundant moisture, some
patchy fog and low clouds may develop around sunrise however dense
fog is not expected to be widespread. Late this morning and into the
afternoon a vort max is expected to lift NNW from central TX which
should reinvigorate showers and thunderstorms with the main focus
being across the southern half of the forecast area. With very high
PWAT values across the region, the main concern today will be
localized flooding due to efficient heavy rainfall with the stronger
showers and thunderstorms. The persistent cloud cover should keep
instability values generally at or below 1000 J/Kg and with a
saturated column no severe weather is anticipated today. The
persistent cloud cover will also keep high temperatures below normal
today generally ranging from the mid 70s to the mid 80s. With the
loss of daytime heating, thunderstorm activity should begin to wane.
However, with the vort max and moisture plume over the forecast area
light to moderate rain showers may continue through the overnight
hours. /WCI

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 244 AM CDT Wed Aug 31 2022

Unsettled weather will continue on Thursday for most of the CWA as a
shortwave trough departs to the east of the region. Meanwhile, the
expanding anticyclonic flow over the Great Basin, in tandem with the
position of the departing shortwave trough, will send a mid-level
cold front southward over the CWA and therefore shunt shower and
thunderstorm potential to the south and southeast throughout the
course of the day Thursday. Dense overcast will encompass most of
the forecast area during the morning hours and gradually scour out
as the drier air advects overhead, with conditions clearing
altogether near sunset Thursday across the CWA. Despite the presence
of weak, southerly flow, the dense overcast will inhibit insolation
with temperatures peaking in the lower 80s area-wide. Temperatures
will increase a few degrees on Friday into the middle-upper 80s with
benign weather as the anticyclonic flow aloft noses into the region,
and blended PoPs were removed as dry air/northerly flow within the
700-300 mb layer continues to advect overhead. PoPs return on
Saturday as a high-level shortwave trough pivots into the southern
Great Plains with the possibility of a compact 500 mb cutoff low
over North Texas. This will send a cold front southward into the
region by Saturday morning, shifting winds to the north initially
post-FROPA before transitioning to the east by late afternoon.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop during
the afternoon hours, perhaps in the form of a loosely-organized
complex. Precipitable water content is forecast to remain well below
the 99th percentile on Saturday, and a generally brisk storm motion
out of the north-northeast will preclude a pertinent flooding risk
despite the recent rainfall across the region over the last few
weeks. The CWA is forecast to remain along the eastern periphery of
the mid/upper-level ridge centered over the Great Basin for the
remainder of the weekend into early next week while the sub-tropical
ridge over the western Atlantic Basin remains locked over the
southeastern U.S., potentially maintaining the position of the weak
cutoff low over North Texas. Regardless if a mid-level circulation
is present or not, low PoPs have been maintained through the end of
the forecast period as a few subtle shortwave perturbations rotate
along the downstream portion of the mid/upper-level ridge to the
west of the region.

Sincavage

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Wed Aug 31 2022

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected in
the vicinity of all three terminals through the remainder of this
afternoon and evening with coverage and intensity to lessen after
sunset and shift south of KCDS, but persist near KPVW and KLBB.
Periods of MVFR/IFR visibility and ceilings will be possible when
this activity is overhead of the terminals. Low clouds and patchy
fog development will also be possible early Thursday morning.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...58
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...55

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