Severe Thunderstorm Warning 99, NWS St. Louis, MO

932 
WWUS53 KLSX 170919
SVSLSX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
419 AM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022

ILC013-083-MOC027-071-073-113-139-151-183-219-170945-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0099.000000T0000Z-220617T0945Z/
Calhoun IL-Jersey IL-St. Charles MO-Lincoln MO-Montgomery MO-
Callaway MO-Franklin MO-Osage MO-Warren MO-Gasconade MO-
419 AM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 AM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN CALHOUN...JERSEY...ST. CHARLES...LINCOLN...
MONTGOMERY...SOUTHEASTERN CALLAWAY...NORTHWESTERN FRANKLIN...
NORTHEASTERN OSAGE...WARREN AND NORTHERN GASCONADE COUNTIES...

At 419 AM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Hardin to near Fountain N' Lakes to 6 miles east
of Big Spring, moving east at 65 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
  Winfield, Hardin, Fountain N' Lakes, Chain of Rocks, Warrenton, 
  St. Paul, Truesdale, Treloar, Marthasville, Innsbrook, St. 
  Charles, Jerseyville, Dutzow, Grafton, Elsah, New Melle, Portage 
  Des Sioux, Augusta, Orchard Farms, Kemper, Hazelwood, Bridgeton, 
  Brighton, West Alton, Defiance and Weldon Spring Heights.

This also includes Deutschheim Historic Site, Cuivre River State
Park, Graham Cave State Park, First Missouri State Capitol Historic
Site, and Pere Marquette State Park.
 
This includes Interstate 70 in Missouri between exits 170 and 229.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

To report severe weather contact your nearest law enforcement agency.
They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in
St Louis.

&&

LAT...LON 3873 9182 3903 9142 3914 9119 3923 9118
      3924 9060 3912 9060 3918 9058 3917 9031
      3922 9031 3924 9015 3900 9015 3900 9027
      3892 9028 3882 9039 3882 9045 3869 9054
      3868 9067 3854 9090 3840 9178 3860 9207
TIME...MOT...LOC 0919Z 285DEG 56KT 3922 9070 3899 9090 3877 9137 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Gosselin

471 
WWUS53 KLSX 170929
SVSLSX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
429 AM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022

MOC027-139-170939-
/O.CAN.KLSX.SV.W.0099.000000T0000Z-220617T0945Z/
Montgomery MO-Callaway MO-
429 AM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR MONTGOMERY AND SOUTHEASTERN
CALLAWAY COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the warned 
area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 AM CDT for
southwestern Illinois...and northeastern and east central Missouri.

LAT...LON 3854 9192 3871 9142 3875 9142 3910 9102
      3923 9081 3924 9060 3912 9060 3918 9058
      3917 9031 3922 9031 3924 9015 3900 9015
      3900 9027 3892 9028 3882 9039 3882 9045
      3869 9054 3868 9067 3854 9090 3840 9178
TIME...MOT...LOC 0929Z 287DEG 70KT 3917 9048 3894 9068 3872 9115 

$$

ILC013-083-MOC071-073-113-151-183-219-170945-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0099.000000T0000Z-220617T0945Z/
Calhoun IL-Jersey IL-St. Charles MO-Lincoln MO-Franklin MO-Osage MO-
Warren MO-Gasconade MO-
429 AM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 AM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN CALHOUN...JERSEY...ST. CHARLES...LINCOLN...
NORTHWESTERN FRANKLIN...EAST CENTRAL OSAGE...WARREN AND NORTHERN
GASCONADE COUNTIES...

At 429 AM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Old Kane to near Winfield to near Treloar, moving
east at 80 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
O'Fallon, St. Charles, St. Peters, Chesterfield, Wentzville, Maryland
Heights, Hazelwood, Lake St. Louis, Washington, Bridgeton, Dardenne
Prairie, Troy, Jerseyville, Warrenton, Weldon Spring, Wright City,
Cottleville, Hermann, New Haven and Elsberry.

This also includes Cuivre River State Park, First Missouri State
Capitol Historic Site, and Pere Marquette State Park.
 
This includes Interstate 70 in Missouri between exits 188 and 229.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

To report severe weather contact your nearest law enforcement agency.
They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in
St Louis.

&&

LAT...LON 3854 9192 3871 9142 3875 9142 3910 9102
      3923 9081 3924 9060 3912 9060 3918 9058
      3917 9031 3922 9031 3924 9015 3900 9015
      3900 9027 3892 9028 3882 9039 3882 9045
      3869 9054 3868 9067 3854 9090 3840 9178
TIME...MOT...LOC 0929Z 287DEG 70KT 3917 9048 3894 9068 3872 9115 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Gosselin

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
339 AM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022

An elongated MCS stretched from west-central IL across northern
MO into southeast NE. The bowing portion of the MCS across
northeast MO has a well-defined cold pool at this time. Forward
propagating Corfidi Vectors support the observed SE motion thus
far, and effective shear of 25 kts or so should be sufficient to
maintain the MCS as it tracks SEWD this morning through a
reservoir of very unstable air featuring MLCAPE of 3500+ J/KG.
The heart of the MCS is expected to track along and north of I-70
in MO and I-64 in IL. It appears the predominant threat with the
MCS will be damaging winds, although a localized threat of heavy
rain and flash flooding is possible as well in association with
training within the warm advection wing and possibly trailing NW-
SE convection. Given the current motion along with some of the
CAM, guidance the heart of the MCS should pass to the east of the
CWA by 13z or so.

Outflow with the MCS will bring some cooling along with lower dew
points this morning, and then the cold front will begin to push
southward this afternoon bringing slightly cooler air and lower
dew points as well. Cumulatively much of the area will see reduced
heat and humidity from yesterday and only parts of central MO
into southeast MO will still flirt with dangerous heat index
values. The heat advisory issued yesterday and valid until early
this evening captures this area well.

The cold front will slide through southern MO and southern IL this
evening in response to deepening of the upper trof from eastern
Canada through the northeast quarter of the Nation. At this time I
have kept the forecast dry this evening with very limited
convergence indicated with the front. Otherwise the aforementioned
deepening eastern trof will allow surface high pressure to build
into the area and bring cooler and drier/less humid air.

Glass

.LONG TERM...  (Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022

A slowly progressive omega block will dominate the CONUS this
weekend with a prominent upper trof along the eastern seaboard,
and the upper ridge/upper high having retrograded initially by
Saturday to a position centered through the Plains into Canada.
The upper ridge axis and upper high will slowly progress eastward
into the Mississippi Valley on Sunday. The deep eastern trof
however will exert the greatest influence bringing the center of a
prominent building surface high/low level anticyclone into the
Great Lakes/Ohio Valley on Saturday, with the center of this high
shifting slowly east on Sunday. The high pressure system will
dominate weekend weather with easterly low level flow, and cooler
and less humid air on Saturday. A slight moderation of
temperatures is expected on Sunday however the lower dew
point/lower humidity air will persist as surface flow remains
easterly. Low temperatures on Sunday morning will actually be
below normal, and some 15-20 degrees cooler than mins experienced
much of this week.

The deterministic models and ensembles are in exceptionally good
agreement with the evolution of the large scale pattern next week
with the upper high intensifying Monday-Tuesday as it takes up
residence over the lower MS Valley. Large scale subsidence
attendant with the high, along with the return of low level south-
southwest flow will bring a return of dangerous heat. At this
point in time, while we will see a return of hot temperatures
generally in the 95- 100 range on Monday and especially Tuesday,
the dew points and thus humidity look less than what we saw this
week.

By midweek the upper high expands and the center shifts further
south as the westerlies become established across the northern
tier of the CONUS. This pattern evolution will likely bring an
east-west cold front either into the area by Wednesday or wavering
just to our north, along with associated shower and storms
chances.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022

Showers and thunderstorms are still expected to move southeast
into the region from eastern Nebraska overnight into the morning
hours tomorrow. Additional thunderstorm development is possible
overnight along the stalled frontal boundary stretching from KMCI
to KHAE to KBMI. Both chances for thunderstorms will impact the
terminals between 08 and 13Z. MVFR flight conditions due to heavy
rain and lower cigs. Once thunderstorms move out of terminals,
conditions will improve to VFR flight conditions and remain there
through the remainder of the TAF period.

Winds will slowly shift from the southwest to the north as the
boundary slides southward overnight and through the day tomorrow.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to move into the terminal
area overnight into the morning tomorrow, largely between 9 and
13Z. MVFR flight conditions are possible underneath individual
thunderstorms from heavy rain and lowering cigs. Conditions will
improve to VFR flight conditions once the thunderstorms exit the
area. Winds will shift from the southwest to the north through the
morning.

MRM

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Cole MO-Crawford
     MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Madison MO-Moniteau MO-Osage MO-
     Reynolds MO-Washington MO.

IL...None.
&&

WFO LSX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
837 PM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-180145-
Greene IL-Macoupin IL-Montgomery IL-Bond IL-Fayette IL-Clinton IL-
Marion IL-Washington IL-Randolph IL-Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL-
Calhoun IL-Jersey IL-Madison IL-Saint Clair-Monroe IL-Knox MO-
Lewis MO-Shelby MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-Pike MO-Boone MO-
Audrain MO-Moniteau MO-Cole MO-Osage MO-Callaway MO-Montgomery MO-
Lincoln MO-Gasconade MO-Warren MO-Saint Charles MO-Franklin MO-
Saint Louis MO-Saint Louis City MO-Jefferson MO-Crawford MO-
Washington MO-Saint Francois MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Iron MO-
Madison MO-Reynolds MO-
837 PM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern and
central Missouri as well as west central and southwest Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A Heat Advisory remain in effect for extreme heat index values
across southern and central Missouri.

There is a chance of thunderstorms tonight. A few of the storms may
be strong to severe with the main threats being large hail, damaging
winds and locally heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

A Heat Advisory continues for southern and central Missouri into
Friday.

Heat returns next week with Heat Index values likely topping 100
degrees for several days beginning on Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report hail size and wind damage to the
NWS.

MRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1027 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1010 PM     HAIL             3 NW GRANVILLE          39.60N 92.13W
06/16/2022  E1.00 INCH       MONROE             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGEST HAIL WAS ONE INCH. MOST HAIL WAS
            MUCH SMALLER. WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 MPH.

&&

MRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
317 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0304 AM     TSTM WND GST     2 NW GRANVILLE          39.59N 92.13W
06/17/2022  E50 MPH          MONROE             MO   PUBLIC

            REPORT OF 50 MPH WIND GUST AS WELL AS RAIN
            RATE OF 2.3 INCHES PER HOUR.

&&

LSJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
341 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0321 AM     TSTM WND GST     1 SSE MONROE CITY       39.64N 91.72W
06/17/2022  M74 MPH          MONROE             MO   MESONET

            MISSOURI MESONET.

&&

BRITT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
353 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0343 AM     TSTM WND DMG     CENTER                  39.51N 91.53W
06/17/2022                   RALLS              MO   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON HOUSE IN CENTER. TREE DOWN ON
            HIGHWAY HH NORTH OF NEW LONDON AND MULTIPLE
            REPORTS OF POWER OUT IN HANNIBAL.

&&

BRITT