Severe Thunderstorm Warning 156, NWS St. Louis, MO

035 
WWUS53 KLSX 282151
SVSLSX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
451 PM CDT Sun Aug 28 2022

ILC061-083-282200-
/O.CAN.KLSX.SV.W.0156.000000T0000Z-220828T2215Z/
Greene IL-Jersey IL-
451 PM CDT Sun Aug 28 2022

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL GREENE AND
NORTHEASTERN JERSEY COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3934 8970 3914 9015 3946 9015 3952 9010
      3952 8989
TIME...MOT...LOC 2150Z 235DEG 30KT 3933 9003 

$$

ILC117-282215-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0156.000000T0000Z-220828T2215Z/
Macoupin IL-
451 PM CDT Sun Aug 28 2022

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CDT
FOR NORTHERN MACOUPIN COUNTY...

At 450 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles south of
Palmyra, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Carlinville, Palmyra, Medora, Nilwood, Modesto, Chesterfield,
Hettick, Standard City, Scottville and Atwater.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3934 8970 3914 9015 3946 9015 3952 9010
      3952 8989
TIME...MOT...LOC 2150Z 235DEG 30KT 3933 9003 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Maples

747 
WWUS53 KLSX 282159
SVSLSX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
459 PM CDT Sun Aug 28 2022

ILC117-282215-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0156.000000T0000Z-220828T2215Z/
Macoupin IL-
459 PM CDT Sun Aug 28 2022

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CDT
FOR NORTHERN MACOUPIN COUNTY...

At 459 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Carlinville,
moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Palmyra, Nilwood, Modesto, Hettick, Standard City and Scottville. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3934 8970 3930 9015 3946 9015 3952 9010
      3952 8989
TIME...MOT...LOC 2159Z 270DEG 30KT 3935 8994 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Maples

720 
WWUS53 KLSX 282210
SVSLSX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
510 PM CDT Sun Aug 28 2022

ILC117-282220-
/O.EXP.KLSX.SV.W.0156.000000T0000Z-220828T2215Z/
Macoupin IL-
510 PM CDT Sun Aug 28 2022

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN MACOUPIN COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 515 PM CDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However gusty
winds are still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 3934 8970 3930 9015 3946 9015 3952 9010
      3952 8989
TIME...MOT...LOC 2210Z 235DEG 30KT 3940 8985 

$$

Maples

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
319 PM CDT Sun Aug 28 2022

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Monday Night)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Sun Aug 28 2022

Thunderstorms have developed this afternoon in axis of deep moisture
convergence from west central Illinois into south central Missouri.
These storms were occurring in an area 2000+ J/kg with deep layer
shear around 30 knots.  This band of storms will slowly move east
through the late afternoon into the early evening before diminishing
with the loss of daytime heating.  Before then, there could a strong
storm or two with hail and strong wind gusts.

While there will likely be a lull in rain chances this evening, both
the NAM/GFS is showing an a low level jet late tonight which should
cause an increase in showers and thunderstorms after midnight. Rain
chances will continue into Monday morning as the weak low moisture
convergence continues over the area. Better chances will ramp up
over northeast Missouri into west central Illinois during the late
afternoon as a line of thunderstorms develops ahead of cold front
that will drop south of Iowa.  There will also be ascent from a mid-
level trough moving from the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes.
This line of storms will move southeast into the central CWA during
the evening.   MLCAPES during the afternoon will likely exceed 3000
J/kg with deep layer shear of 30 knots, so a few severe storms will
be possible capable of producing some large and and damaging winds
late tomorrow afternoon into the evening hours. While the most
likely area for severe storms will be over parts of the northern
CWA, the threat for a few severe storms will continue into the
evening as the storms move south through the CWA.  The front will
move south of the CWA by Tuesday morning, though a few showers and
thunderstorm will linger across southeast Missouri through mid-
morning before high pressure builds in during the afternoon.

Temperatures will be above normal tonight with clouds and near
normal on Monday ahead of the front.  Temperatures will be a few
degrees cooler on Monday night behind the front.

Britt

.LONG TERM...  (Tuesday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Sun Aug 28 2022

Global ensemble means continue to show that we will enter a
generally dry pattern from midweek into next weekend. There is
generally good agreement starting that the highly amplified
pattern with a trough over eastern Canada and ridge over the
western CONUS will breakdown by the weekend as the trough lifts
out and the westerlies become more confined to the northern CONUS.
At the same time, a large surface high will move slowly across
the central and eastern U.S. The only concern for precipitation
during the extended is not until Friday into the weekend when the
operational GFS is showing an closed low bringing some rain to the
area. The low looks climatologically anomalous and the GEFS QPF
plumes are showing that only a few of the ensemble members are
picking up on this solution. In addition, the NBM precipitation
percentiles remain relatively low during this period, so will keep
the forecast dry.

850mb temperatures will be in the 15-17C range through the period
which support near or just below normal temperatures.  Surface winds
will be out of the north to east which will make it difficult to
warm back up above normal.  This is reflected well in both the NBM
and raw model guidance plumes.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Sun Aug 28 2022

Showers and thunderstorms have been developing across parts of
central and east central Missouri and will likely affect KJEF/KCOU
through 21Z and the St. Louis metro terminals through 00Z. The
heavier showers and thunderstorms will be capable of producing
MVFR/possible IFR ceilings and visibilities as well as some hail
and wind gusts to 30 knots. Otherwise outside of thunderstorms,
mainly dry and VFR conditions are expected with southerly winds
around 10 knots.

Britt

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

WFO LSX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service St Louis MO
231 PM CDT Sun Aug 28 2022

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-291945-
Greene IL-Macoupin IL-Montgomery IL-Bond IL-Fayette IL-Clinton IL-
Marion IL-Washington IL-Randolph IL-Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL-
Calhoun IL-Jersey IL-Madison IL-Saint Clair-Monroe IL-Knox MO-
Lewis MO-Shelby MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-Pike MO-Boone MO-
Audrain MO-Moniteau MO-Cole MO-Osage MO-Callaway MO-Montgomery MO-
Lincoln MO-Gasconade MO-Warren MO-Saint Charles MO-Franklin MO-
Saint Louis MO-Saint Louis City MO-Jefferson MO-Crawford MO-
Washington MO-Saint Francois MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Iron MO-
Madison MO-Reynolds MO-
231 PM CDT Sun Aug 28 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern and
central Missouri as well as west central and southwest Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

There is a chance of thunderstorms across much of the area.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

There is a chance of thunderstorms over parts of the area from
Monday through Tuesday morning. A few strong to severe thunderstorms
are possible Monday afternoon into evening in portions of northeast
Missouri and west-central Illinois. The primary severe weather
threat is damaging winds and large hail.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Britt