River Flood Warning 47, NWS St. Louis, MO

272 
WGUS83 KLSX 031454
FLSLSX

Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
954 AM CDT Tue May 3 2022

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following river in 
Missouri...

  Hinkson Creek at Columbia.

River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast 
precipitation for the next 24 hours.

MOC019-031600-
/O.CAN.KLSX.FL.W.0047.000000T0000Z-220503T1454Z/
/TGRM7.1.ER.220503T0827Z.220503T1115Z.220503T1242Z.NO/
954 AM CDT Tue May 3 2022

...FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Hinkson Creek at Columbia.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 9:00 AM CDT Tuesday the stage was 13.9 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall to 5.4 feet tomorrow
    evening.


&&

               Fld   Observed  Forecasts (10 am CDT)
Location       Stg   Stg 10 am Wed   Thu   Fri   Sat   Sun

Hinkson Creek
  Columbia     15.0    13.9    5.4   MSG   MSG   MSG   MSG


&&

LAT...LON 3895 9231 3894 9230 3891 9232 3891 9241
      3893 9241


$$

Gosselin

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
612 AM CDT Tue May 3 2022

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Tue May 3 2022

Now through Wednesday

The widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms from the evening
and overnight are continuing to shift eastward this morning, and are
expected to fully exit the eastern portion of the forecast area by
by the early afternoon. A surface high will slide across the
Canadian border behind this mornings system, and combined with
ridging aloft will provide a period of dry weather today and most of
Wednesday ahead of the next approaching system. Heavy cloud cover
behind this system and cold air advection along the northwesterly
flow will keep temperatures cool, 5 or so degrees cooler than
Monday.

A mid-level closed off low is currently sliding through the Mountain
West into the Four Corners region today, and will continue to
traverse east into the central Plains on Wednesday. By mid-day
Wednesday the departing mid-level ridge and advancing trough will
throw the region into southwesterly flow aloft. A shortwave is
expected to slide northeast along this flow into the region
Wednesday afternoon into the evening, bringing a chance for showers
and a few thunderstorms mainly to central and southeast Missouri.
This precipitation will form ahead of the approaching surface low
that will form and deepen during this period across the south-
central US in response to the deepening trough aloft. The
southwesterly flow along the back side of the ridge Wednesday will
kickstart warm air advection and combined with southeasterly winds
at the surface, Wednesday will be slightly warmer than Tuesday.

MRM

.LONG TERM...  (Wednesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Tue May 3 2022

Wednesday night through the end of the period

The cut off mid-level trough will slide east overnight Wednesday
into Thursday into the central Plains, while at the surface the low
will move into the mid-Mississippi Valley. The shortwave disturbance
that will move into the area Wednesday afternoon and evening will
continue across the region overnight, followed by another shortwave
that will keep a chance for showers and thunderstorms across the
area Thursday. As the low and attendant cold front approach the
region Thursday afternoon, showers and thunderstorms will continue
across the region. While some deterministic model runs are
indicating 1500-2000 J/kg of both SBCAPE and MUCAPE available across
the southern half of the CWA during the afternoon and early evening,
the SREF guidance is showing less than 500 J/kg of both. Uncertainty
remains in how much on going showers and thunderstorms will allow
for instability to build into the area during the day. 50-70 kts of
0-6 km shear will be able to organize thunderstorms that do develop
into strong to severe thunderstorms, particularly overnight along
the nose of the LLJ across southeastern Missouri. Damaging winds
will be the primary threat with any storms that become strong to
severe. Numerous rounds of showers and thunderstorms on an already
primed soil does raise the potential for flooding, particularly in
areas that see thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall. Uncertainty
currently remains in how prolonged widespread precipitation will be
in advance of the low and attendant cold front, and as these
details come into focus, so too will the flooding threat.

Showers and an isolated thunderstorm will continue into the morning
Friday. As the mid-level trough begins to lift northeast out of the
region Friday morning the surface low will follow suit. Rising
heights aloft Friday night into Saturday and the departing surface
low will encourage precipitation to clear out of the region.

The exit of the system will usher in a dramatic pattern change. A
mid-level ridge will build into the Mississippi Valley over the
weekend, finally stalling over the Eastern Seaboard. A deep trough
will build into the western half of the CONUS over the weekend into
the first half of the week, keeping the mid-Mississippi Valley in
southwesterly flow. Guidance is indicating temperatures will warm
under the influence of the stout southwesterly flow. The ECMWF
and NAEFS guidance are indicating 850 temperatures pushing into
the 90th climatological percentile. Uncertainty remains however,
and the NBM surface temperatures are still showing a 10 degree
spread.

MRM

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 603 AM CDT Tue May 3 2022

IFR stratus has engulfed the mid-Missouri and west-central
Illinois terminals and is steadily moving eastward on the back
side of a surface low pressure. The stratus is expected to move
into the St. Louis metro terminals, including KSTL during the
morning, though there is some uncertainty in the exact timing. The
stratus will hang around through the overnight period, though
could begin to break at KUIN, KCOU, and KJEF during the evening.

Winds will shift from the southwest to the northwest over the day
as the surface low moves across the terminal area. Initially calm
or light winds will become gusty during the morning and afternoon.
Gusts will cease after nightfall.

MRM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis     66  49  68  56 /  10   0  10  40
Quincy          56  45  63  53 /  20   0   5  50
Columbia        57  48  65  55 /  10   0  40  70
Jefferson City  58  48  66  55 /  10   0  40  70
Salem           70  49  68  55 /  30   5   0  20
Farmington      67  48  68  54 /  20   5  20  40

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

WFO LSX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
405 AM CDT Tue May 3 2022

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-040915-
Adams IL-Audrain MO-Bond IL-Boone MO-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Callaway MO-
Clinton IL-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Fayette IL-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-
Greene IL-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Jersey IL-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-
Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Madison MO-Marion IL-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-
Monroe IL-Monroe MO-Montgomery IL-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike IL-
Pike MO-Ralls MO-Randolph IL-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-
Saint Clair-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-
Sainte Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington IL-Washington MO-
405 AM CDT Tue May 3 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern and
central Missouri as well as west central and southwest Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Thunderstorms are possible Wednesday night through Thursday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated through tonight.

MRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
556 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0455 PM     HAIL             MINNITH                 37.80N 90.05W
04/30/2022  E2.00 INCH       STE. GENEVIEVE     MO   PUBLIC

            PICTURES OF LARGE HAIL RECEIVED FROM
            MINNITH. SIZE ESTIMATED FROM PICTURES. TIME
            ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

CK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
601 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0604 PM     HAIL             MILLSTADT               38.46N 90.09W
04/30/2022  E0.70 INCH       ST. CLAIR          IL   PUBLIC

            DIME SIZED HAIL REPORTED.

&&

CK