Alert archive / Illinois / River Flood Warnings in 2022
River Flood Warning 10, NWS St. Louis, MO
NWS St. Louis, MO issued this river flood warning at Feb 23, 2022, 11:53 AM CST for Pike County, Scott County, Illinois. It took effect at Feb 26, 2022, 6:00 AM CST. It was in force for 18 days.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Feb 23, 2022, 11:53 AM CST (17:53 UTC)
- In effect from
- Feb 26, 2022, 6:00 AM CST
- Expired
- Mar 16, 2022, 12:53 PM CDT
- In force
- 18 days
- Issued by
- NWS St. Louis, MO
- Area
- Storm-based polygon
- Flood severity
- Minor
Counties Pike County, IL, Scott County, IL
The radar
The St Louis radar (KLSX), 108 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:52 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The river
Written for the forecast point Illinois River at Valley City (VALI2). The gauge peaked at 14.03 ft at Mar 2, 2022, 2:00 PM CST.
- Action stage
- 11 ft
- Minor stage
- 14 ft
- Moderate stage
- 21 ft
- Major stage
- 23 ft
This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests
Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 05586100, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.
The text
As transmitted.
131
WGUS43 KLSX 231753
FLWLSX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service St Louis MO
1153 AM CST Wed Feb 23 2022
...The National Weather Service in St Louis MO has issued a Flood
Warning for the following rivers in Illinois...
Illinois River at Valley City.
River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast
precipitation for the next 48 hours.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.
This product, along with additional weather and stream information,
is available at https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.
&&
ILC149-171-250600-
/O.NEW.KLSX.FL.W.0010.220226T1200Z-000000T0000Z/
/VALI2.1.ER.220226T1200Z.220301T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1153 AM CST Wed Feb 23 2022
...FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING UNTIL FURTHER
NOTICE...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Illinois River at Valley City.
* WHEN...From Saturday morning until further notice.
* IMPACTS...At 14.0 feet, The road to Norbut Fish and Wildlife area
is flooded.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 11:00 AM CST Wednesday the stage was 12.2 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
Saturday morning and continue rising to 15.5 feet Tuesday
morning. Additional rises are possible thereafter.
- Flood stage is 14.0 feet.
&&
Fld Observed Forecasts (12 pm CST)
Location Stg Stg Day/Time Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon
Illinois River
Valley City 14.0 12.2 Wed 11 am 13.0 13.5 14.1 14.7 15.2
&&
LAT...LON 3977 9067 3977 9053 3952 9052 3952 9064
$$
Fuchs17 follow-up statements
114
WGUS83 KLSX 240226
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
826 PM CST Wed Feb 23 2022
...The Flood Warnings continue for the following rivers in
Illinois...
Illinois River at Valley City.
Kaskaskia River at Carlyle TW.
River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast
precipitation for the next 48 hours.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.
This product, along with additional weather and stream information,
is available at https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.
&&
ILC149-171-251430-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0010.220226T2100Z-000000T0000Z/
/VALI2.1.ER.220226T2100Z.220302T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
826 PM CST Wed Feb 23 2022
...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL FURTHER
NOTICE...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Illinois River at Valley City.
* WHEN...From Saturday afternoon until further notice.
* IMPACTS...At 14.0 feet, The road to Norbut Fish and Wildlife area
is flooded.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 8:00 PM CST Wednesday the stage was 12.3 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
Saturday afternoon and continue rising to 15.7 feet Tuesday
evening. Additional rises are possible thereafter.
- Flood stage is 14.0 feet.
&&
Fld Observed Forecasts (6 pm CST)
Location Stg Stg Day/Time Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon
Illinois River
Valley City 14.0 12.3 Wed 8 pm 12.6 13.3 14.1 14.7 15.3
&&
LAT...LON 3977 9067 3977 9053 3952 9052 3952 9064
$$
ILC027-251430-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0008.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/CRLI2.1.ER.220220T2150Z.220224T0045Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
826 PM CST Wed Feb 23 2022
...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Kaskaskia River at Carlyle TW.
* WHEN...Until further notice.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 8:00 PM CST Wednesday the stage was 424.2 feet.
- Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
ending at 8:00 PM CST Wednesday was 424.2 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to remain steady above flood
stage at 424.2 feet.
- Flood stage is 423.5 feet.
&&
Fld Observed Forecasts (6 pm CST)
Location Stg Stg Day/Time Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon
Kaskaskia River
Carlyle TW 423.5 424.2 Wed 8 pm 424.2 424.2 424.2 424.2 424.
&&
LAT...LON 3862 8936 3861 8933 3851 8937 3849 8942
3854 8942
$$
MRM105
WGUS83 KLSX 241915
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
115 PM CST Thu Feb 24 2022
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Illinois...
Illinois River at Valley City.
River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast
precipitation for the next 48 hours.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.
This product, along with additional weather and stream information,
is available at https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.
&&
ILC149-171-260715-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0010.220226T2100Z-000000T0000Z/
/VALI2.1.ER.220226T2100Z.220302T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
115 PM CST Thu Feb 24 2022
...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL
FURTHER NOTICE...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Illinois River at Valley City.
* WHEN...From Saturday afternoon until further notice.
* IMPACTS...At 14.0 feet, The road to Norbut Fish and Wildlife area
is flooded.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 8:00 PM CST Wednesday the stage was 12.3 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
Saturday afternoon and continue rising to 15.7 feet Tuesday
evening. Additional rises are possible thereafter.
- Flood stage is 14.0 feet.
&&
Fld Observed Forecasts (12 pm CST)
Location Stg Stg Day/Time Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue
Illinois River
Valley City 14.0 12.3 Wed 8 pm 13.4 14.2 15.0 15.8 16.4
&&
LAT...LON 3977 9067 3977 9053 3952 9052 3952 9064
$$
Fuchs573
WGUS83 KLSX 250209
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
809 PM CST Thu Feb 24 2022
...The Flood Warnings are extended for the following rivers in
Illinois...
Illinois River at Valley City.
Kaskaskia River at Carlyle TW.
River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast
precipitation for the next 48 hours.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.
This product, along with additional weather and stream information,
is available at https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.
&&
ILC149-171-261415-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0010.220226T1800Z-000000T0000Z/
/VALI2.1.ER.220226T1800Z.220303T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
809 PM CST Thu Feb 24 2022
...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL FURTHER
NOTICE...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Illinois River at Valley City.
* WHEN...From Saturday afternoon until further notice.
* IMPACTS...At 14.0 feet, The road to Norbut Fish and Wildlife area
is flooded.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 7:30 PM CST Thursday the stage was 12.6 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
early Saturday afternoon and continue rising to 16.4 feet
Wednesday evening. Additional rises are possible thereafter.
- Flood stage is 14.0 feet.
&&
Fld Observed Forecasts (6 pm CST)
Location Stg Stg Day/Time Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue
Illinois River
Valley City 14.0 12.6 Thu 7 pm 13.3 14.2 14.9 15.5 16.1
&&
LAT...LON 3977 9067 3977 9053 3952 9052 3952 9064
$$
ILC027-261415-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0008.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/CRLI2.1.ER.220220T2150Z.220224T0045Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
809 PM CST Thu Feb 24 2022
...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Kaskaskia River at Carlyle TW.
* WHEN...Until further notice.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 7:30 PM CST Thursday the stage was 424.2 feet.
- Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
ending at 7:30 PM CST Thursday was 424.2 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to remain steady above flood
stage at 424.2 feet.
- Flood stage is 423.5 feet.
&&
Fld Observed Forecasts (6 pm CST)
Location Stg Stg Day/Time Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue
Kaskaskia River
Carlyle TW 423.5 424.2 Thu 7 pm 424.2 424.2 424.2 424.2 424.
&&
LAT...LON 3862 8936 3861 8933 3851 8937 3849 8942
3854 8942
$$
MRM808
WGUS83 KLSX 251719
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
1119 AM CST Fri Feb 25 2022
...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in
Illinois...
Illinois River at Valley City.
River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast
precipitation for the next 48 hours.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.
This product, along with additional weather and stream information,
is available at https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.
&&
ILC149-171-270530-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0010.220227T1800Z-000000T0000Z/
/VALI2.1.ER.220227T1800Z.220303T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1119 AM CST Fri Feb 25 2022
...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL FURTHER
NOTICE...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Illinois River at Valley City.
* WHEN...From Sunday afternoon until further notice.
* IMPACTS...At 14.0 feet, The road to Norbut Fish and Wildlife area
is flooded.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 11:00 AM CST Friday the stage was 12.9 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
early Sunday afternoon and continue rising to 15.6 feet early
Thursday morning. Additional rises are possible thereafter.
- Flood stage is 14.0 feet.
&&
Fld Observed Forecasts (12 pm CST)
Location Stg Stg Day/Time Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed
Illinois River
Valley City 14.0 12.9 Fri 11 am 13.4 14.0 14.6 15.1 15.4
&&
LAT...LON 3977 9067 3977 9053 3952 9052 3952 9064
$$
Byrd277
WGUS83 KLSX 260225
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
825 PM CST Fri Feb 25 2022
...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in
Illinois...
Illinois River at Valley City.
River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast
precipitation for the next 48 hours.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
This product, along with additional weather and stream information,
is available at https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.
&&
ILC149-171-271430-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0010.220228T0600Z-000000T0000Z/
/VALI2.1.ER.220228T0600Z.220303T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
825 PM CST Fri Feb 25 2022
...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT UNTIL FURTHER
NOTICE...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Illinois River at Valley City.
* WHEN...From late Sunday night until further notice.
* IMPACTS...At 14.0 feet, The road to Norbut Fish and Wildlife area
is flooded.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 8:00 PM CST Friday the stage was 13.0 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
early Monday morning and continue rising to 14.8 feet
Wednesday evening. Additional rises are possible thereafter.
- Flood stage is 14.0 feet.
&&
Fld Observed Forecasts (6 pm CST)
Location Stg Stg Day/Time Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed
Illinois River
Valley City 14.0 13.0 Fri 8 pm 13.5 13.9 14.3 14.6 14.8
&&
LAT...LON 3977 9067 3977 9053 3952 9052 3952 9064
$$
Carney188
WGUS83 KLSX 261716
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
1116 AM CST Sat Feb 26 2022
...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in
Illinois...
Illinois River at Valley City.
River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast
precipitation for the next 48 hours.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
This product, along with additional weather and stream information,
is available at https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.
&&
ILC149-171-280530-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0010.220228T1200Z-000000T0000Z/
/VALI2.1.ER.220228T1200Z.220301T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1116 AM CST Sat Feb 26 2022
...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING UNTIL FURTHER
NOTICE...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Illinois River at Valley City.
* WHEN...From Monday morning until further notice.
* IMPACTS...At 14.0 feet, The road to Norbut Fish and Wildlife area
is flooded.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 11:00 AM CST Saturday the stage was 13.2 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
Monday morning and continue rising to a crest of 14.4 feet
early Tuesday afternoon.
- Flood stage is 14.0 feet.
&&
Fld Observed Forecasts (12 pm CST)
Location Stg Stg Day/Time Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu
Illinois River
Valley City 14.0 13.2 Sat 11 am 13.7 14.1 14.4 14.4 14.4
&&
LAT...LON 3977 9067 3977 9053 3952 9052 3952 9064
$$
Byrd304
WGUS83 KLSX 270120
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
720 PM CST Sat Feb 26 2022
...The Flood Warnings are continued for the following rivers in
Illinois...
Illinois River at Valley City.
Kaskaskia River at Carlyle TW.
River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast
precipitation for the next 48 hours.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
This product, along with additional weather and stream information,
is available at https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.
&&
ILC149-171-281330-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0010.220228T1800Z-000000T0000Z/
/VALI2.1.ER.220228T1800Z.220301T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
720 PM CST Sat Feb 26 2022
...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL FURTHER
NOTICE...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Illinois River at Valley City.
* WHEN...From Monday afternoon until further notice.
* IMPACTS...At 14.0 feet, The road to Norbut Fish and Wildlife area
is flooded.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 7:00 PM CST Saturday the stage was 13.4 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
early Monday afternoon and continue rising to 14.3 feet
Tuesday morning. Additional rises are possible thereafter.
- Flood stage is 14.0 feet.
&&
Fld Observed Forecasts (6 pm CST)
Location Stg Stg Day/Time Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu
Illinois River
Valley City 14.0 13.4 Sat 7 pm 13.7 14.1 14.3 14.3 14.3
&&
LAT...LON 3977 9067 3977 9053 3952 9052 3952 9064
$$
ILC027-281330-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0008.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/CRLI2.1.ER.220220T2150Z.220224T0045Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
720 PM CST Sat Feb 26 2022
...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Kaskaskia River at Carlyle TW.
* WHEN...Until further notice.
* IMPACTS...At 423.5 feet, FLOOD STAGE. Rural damage begins.
Township roads in Covington become inundated.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 7:00 PM CST Saturday the stage was 424.2 feet.
- Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
ending at 7:00 PM CST Saturday was 424.2 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 424.2
feet just after midnight tonight.
- Flood stage is 423.5 feet.
&&
Fld Observed Forecasts (6 pm CST)
Location Stg Stg Day/Time Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu
Kaskaskia River
Carlyle TW 423.5 424.2 Sat 7 pm 424.2 424.2 424.2 424.2 424.
&&
LAT...LON 3862 8936 3861 8933 3851 8937 3849 8942
3854 8942
$$
MRM716
WGUS83 KLSX 271501
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
901 AM CST Sun Feb 27 2022
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Illinois...
Illinois River at Valley City.
River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast
precipitation for the next 48 hours.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
This product, along with additional weather and stream information,
is available at https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.
&&
ILC149-171-010315-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0010.220228T1800Z-000000T0000Z/
/VALI2.1.ER.220228T1800Z.220301T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
901 AM CST Sun Feb 27 2022
...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL
FURTHER NOTICE...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Illinois River at Valley City.
* WHEN...From Monday afternoon until further notice.
* IMPACTS...At 14.0 feet, The road to Norbut Fish and Wildlife area
is flooded.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 8:30 AM CST Sunday the stage was 13.5 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
early tomorrow afternoon and continue rising to 14.3 feet
Tuesday morning. Additional rises are possible thereafter.
- Flood stage is 14.0 feet.
&&
Fld Observed Forecasts (12 pm CST)
Location Stg Stg Day/Time Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri
Illinois River
Valley City 14.0 13.5 Sun 8 am 14.0 14.3 14.3 14.3 14.3
&&
LAT...LON 3977 9067 3977 9053 3952 9052 3952 9064
$$
Byrd440
WGUS83 KLSX 280128
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
728 PM CST Sun Feb 27 2022
...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in
Illinois...
Illinois River at Valley City.
River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast
precipitation for the next 48 hours.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive
cars through flooded areas.
This product, along with additional weather and stream information,
is available at https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.
&&
ILC149-171-011330-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0010.220301T0600Z-000000T0000Z/
/VALI2.1.ER.220301T0600Z.220304T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
728 PM CST Sun Feb 27 2022
...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT UNTIL FURTHER
NOTICE...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Illinois River at Valley City.
* WHEN...From late Monday night until further notice.
* IMPACTS...At 14.0 feet, The road to Norbut Fish and Wildlife area
is flooded.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 7:00 PM CST Sunday the stage was 13.7 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
early Tuesday morning and continue rising to a crest of 14.5
feet early Friday morning.
- Flood stage is 14.0 feet.
&&
Fld Observed Forecasts (6 pm CST)
Location Stg Stg Day/Time Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri
Illinois River
Valley City 14.0 13.7 Sun 7 pm 13.9 14.2 14.4 14.4 14.5
&&
LAT...LON 3977 9067 3977 9053 3952 9052 3952 9064
$$
KD489
WGUS83 KLSX 281629
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
1029 AM CST Mon Feb 28 2022
...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in
Illinois...
Illinois River at Valley City.
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Illinois...
Kaskaskia River at Carlyle TW.
River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast
precipitation for the next 48 hours.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive
cars through flooded areas.
This product, along with additional weather and stream information,
is available at https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.
&&
ILC149-171-020430-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0010.220301T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/VALI2.1.ER.220301T0000Z.220303T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1029 AM CST Mon Feb 28 2022
...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING UNTIL FURTHER
NOTICE...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Illinois River at Valley City.
* WHEN...From this evening until further notice.
* IMPACTS...At 14.0 feet, The road to Norbut Fish and Wildlife area
is flooded.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 10:00 AM CST Monday the stage was 13.8 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
this evening and continue rising to a crest of 14.5 feet
early Thursday afternoon.
- Flood stage is 14.0 feet.
&&
Fld Observed Forecasts (12 pm CST)
Location Stg Stg Day/Time Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Illinois River
Valley City 14.0 13.8 Mon 10 am 14.2 14.3 14.5 14.5 14.4
&&
LAT...LON 3977 9067 3977 9053 3952 9052 3952 9064
$$
ILC027-020430-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0008.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/CRLI2.1.ER.220220T2150Z.220224T0045Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
1029 AM CST Mon Feb 28 2022
...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Kaskaskia River at Carlyle TW.
* WHEN...Until further notice.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 10:00 AM CST Monday the stage was 424.1 feet.
- Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
ending at 10:00 AM CST Monday was 424.1 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to remain steady above flood
stage at 424.1 feet.
- Flood stage is 423.5 feet.
&&
Fld Observed Forecasts (12 pm CST)
Location Stg Stg Day/Time Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Kaskaskia River
Carlyle TW 423.5 424.1 Mon 10 am 424.1 424.1 424.0 424.0 424.
&&
LAT...LON 3862 8936 3861 8933 3851 8937 3849 8942
3854 8942
$$
Kimble520
WGUS83 KLSX 010159
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
759 PM CST Mon Feb 28 2022
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Illinois...
Illinois River at Valley City.
Kaskaskia River at Carlyle TW.
River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast
precipitation for the next 48 hours.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive
cars through flooded areas.
This product, along with additional weather and stream information,
is available at https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.
&&
ILC149-171-021400-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/VALI2.1.ER.220301T1200Z.220304T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
759 PM CST Mon Feb 28 2022
...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Illinois River at Valley City.
* WHEN...Until further notice.
* IMPACTS...At 14.0 feet, The road to Norbut Fish and Wildlife area
is flooded.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 7:30 PM CST Monday the stage was 13.9 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
tomorrow morning and continue rising to a crest of 14.4 feet
early Friday morning.
- Flood stage is 14.0 feet.
&&
Fld Observed Forecasts (6 pm CST)
Location Stg Stg Day/Time Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Illinois River
Valley City 14.0 13.9 Mon 7 pm 14.1 14.3 14.3 14.4 14.3
&&
LAT...LON 3977 9067 3977 9053 3952 9052 3952 9064
$$
ILC027-021400-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0008.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/CRLI2.1.ER.220220T2150Z.220224T0045Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
759 PM CST Mon Feb 28 2022
...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Kaskaskia River at Carlyle TW.
* WHEN...Until further notice.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 7:30 PM CST Monday the stage was 424.1 feet.
- Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
ending at 7:30 PM CST Monday was 424.1 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to remain steady above flood
stage at 424.1 feet.
- Flood stage is 423.5 feet.
&&
Fld Observed Forecasts (6 pm CST)
Location Stg Stg Day/Time Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Kaskaskia River
Carlyle TW 423.5 424.1 Mon 7 pm 424.1 424.1 424.0 424.0 424.
&&
LAT...LON 3862 8936 3861 8933 3851 8937 3849 8942
3854 8942
$$
MRB944
WGUS83 KLSX 011547
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
947 AM CST Tue Mar 1 2022
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Illinois...
Illinois River at Valley City.
River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast
precipitation for the next 48 hours.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive
cars through flooded areas.
This product, along with additional weather and stream information,
is available at https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.
&&
ILC149-171-030400-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/VALI2.1.ER.220301T1800Z.220303T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
947 AM CST Tue Mar 1 2022
...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Illinois River at Valley City.
* WHEN...Until further notice.
* IMPACTS...At 14.0 feet, The road to Norbut Fish and Wildlife area
is flooded.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 9:30 AM CST Tuesday the stage was 14.0 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
this afternoon and continue rising to a crest of 14.3 feet
early Thursday morning.
- Flood stage is 14.0 feet.
&&
Fld Observed Forecasts (12 pm CST)
Location Stg Stg Day/Time Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun
Illinois River
Valley City 14.0 14.0 Tue 9 am 14.2 14.3 14.3 14.3 14.2
&&
LAT...LON 3977 9067 3977 9053 3952 9052 3952 9064
$$
Carney458
WGUS83 KLSX 020229
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
829 PM CST Tue Mar 1 2022
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Illinois...
Illinois River at Valley City.
Kaskaskia River at Carlyle TW.
River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast
precipitation for the next 48 hours.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive
cars through flooded areas.
This product, along with additional weather and stream information,
is available at https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.
&&
ILC149-171-031430-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-220308T1200Z/
/VALI2.1.ER.220302T0200Z.220303T1200Z.220307T0600Z.NO/
829 PM CST Tue Mar 1 2022
...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Illinois River at Valley City.
* WHEN...Until Tuesday morning.
* IMPACTS...At 14.0 feet, The road to Norbut Fish and Wildlife area
is flooded.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 8:00 PM CST Tuesday the stage was 14.0 feet.
- Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
ending at 8:00 PM CST Tuesday was 14.0 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 14.2
feet Thursday morning. It will then fall below flood stage
early Monday morning.
- Flood stage is 14.0 feet.
&&
Fld Observed Forecasts (6 pm CST)
Location Stg Stg Day/Time Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun
Illinois River
Valley City 14.0 14.0 Tue 8 pm 14.1 14.2 14.2 14.1 14.0
&&
LAT...LON 3977 9067 3977 9053 3952 9052 3952 9064
$$
ILC027-031430-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0008.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/CRLI2.1.ER.220220T2150Z.220224T0045Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
829 PM CST Tue Mar 1 2022
...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Kaskaskia River at Carlyle TW.
* WHEN...Until further notice.
* IMPACTS...At 423.5 feet, FLOOD STAGE. Rural damage begins.
Township roads in Covington become inundated.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 8:00 PM CST Tuesday the stage was 424.1 feet.
- Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
ending at 8:00 PM CST Tuesday was 424.1 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 424.1
feet just after midnight tonight.
- Flood stage is 423.5 feet.
&&
Fld Observed Forecasts (6 pm CST)
Location Stg Stg Day/Time Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun
Kaskaskia River
Carlyle TW 423.5 424.1 Tue 8 pm 424.1 424.0 424.0 424.0 423.
&&
LAT...LON 3862 8936 3861 8933 3851 8937 3849 8942
3854 8942
$$
MRM344
WGUS83 KLSX 021552
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
952 AM CST Wed Mar 2 2022
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Illinois...
Illinois River at Valley City.
River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast
precipitation for the next 48 hours.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive
cars through flooded areas.
This product, along with additional weather and stream information,
is available at https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.
&&
ILC149-171-040400-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-220307T1800Z/
/VALI2.1.ER.220302T0200Z.220303T1200Z.220306T1200Z.NO/
952 AM CST Wed Mar 2 2022
...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Illinois River at Valley City.
* WHEN...Until early Monday afternoon.
* IMPACTS...At 14.0 feet, The road to Norbut Fish and Wildlife area
is flooded.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 9:30 AM CST Wednesday the stage was 14.0 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
this afternoon to a crest of 14.1 feet tomorrow morning. It
will then fall below flood stage Sunday morning.
- Flood stage is 14.0 feet.
&&
Fld Observed Forecasts (12 pm CST)
Location Stg Stg Day/Time Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon
Illinois River
Valley City 14.0 14.0 Wed 9 am 14.1 14.1 14.0 13.9 13.8
&&
LAT...LON 3977 9067 3977 9053 3952 9052 3952 9064
$$
Carney599
WGUS83 KLSX 030156
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
756 PM CST Wed Mar 2 2022
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Illinois...
Illinois River at Valley City.
Kaskaskia River at Carlyle TW.
River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast
precipitation for the next 48 hours.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive
cars through flooded areas.
This product, along with additional weather and stream information,
is available at https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.
&&
ILC149-171-041400-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-220307T0000Z/
/VALI2.1.ER.220302T0200Z.220302T2030Z.220305T1800Z.NO/
756 PM CST Wed Mar 2 2022
...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Illinois River at Valley City.
* WHEN...Until Sunday evening.
* IMPACTS...At 14.0 feet, The road to Norbut Fish and Wildlife area
is flooded.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 7:30 PM CST Wednesday the stage was 14.0 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to remain around 14.0 feet
through tonight. It will then fall below flood stage early
Saturday afternoon.
- Flood stage is 14.0 feet.
&&
Fld Observed Forecasts (6 pm CST)
Location Stg Stg Day/Time Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon
Illinois River
Valley City 14.0 14.0 Wed 7 pm 14.0 14.0 13.9 13.8 13.6
&&
LAT...LON 3977 9067 3977 9053 3952 9052 3952 9064
$$
ILC027-041400-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0008.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/CRLI2.1.ER.220220T2150Z.220224T0045Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
756 PM CST Wed Mar 2 2022
...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Kaskaskia River at Carlyle TW.
* WHEN...Until further notice.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 7:30 PM CST Wednesday the stage was 424.2 feet.
- Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
ending at 7:30 PM CST Wednesday was 424.2 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 424.2
feet just after midnight tonight.
- Flood stage is 423.5 feet.
&&
Fld Observed Forecasts (6 pm CST)
Location Stg Stg Day/Time Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon
Kaskaskia River
Carlyle TW 423.5 424.2 Wed 7 pm 424.1 424.1 424.0 424.0 424.
&&
LAT...LON 3862 8936 3861 8933 3851 8937 3849 8942
3854 8942
$$
MRB337
WGUS83 KLSX 031640
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
1040 AM CST Thu Mar 3 2022
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Illinois...
Illinois River at Valley City.
River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast
precipitation for the next 48 hours.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive
cars through flooded areas.
This product, along with additional weather and stream information,
is available at https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.
&&
ILC149-171-050445-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-220306T1200Z/
/VALI2.1.ER.220302T0200Z.220302T2030Z.220305T0600Z.NO/
1040 AM CST Thu Mar 3 2022
...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Illinois River at Valley City.
* WHEN...Until Sunday morning.
* IMPACTS...At 14.0 feet, The road to Norbut Fish and Wildlife area
is flooded.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 10:00 AM CST Thursday the stage was 14.0 feet and
cresting.
- Forecast...The river is expected to crest near 14.0 feet
today and begin a slow fall. The river is likely to fall
below Flood Stage by Saturday morning.
- Flood stage is 14.0 feet.
&&
Fld Observed Forecasts (12 pm CST)
Location Stg Stg Day/Time Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue
Illinois River
Valley City 14.0 14.0 Thu 10 am 14.0 13.9 13.8 13.7 13.4
&&
LAT...LON 3977 9067 3977 9053 3952 9052 3952 9064
$$
Kimble073
WGUS83 KLSX 040240
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
840 PM CST Thu Mar 3 2022
...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in
Illinois...
Illinois River at Valley City.
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Illinois...
Kaskaskia River at Carlyle TW.
River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast
precipitation for the next 48 hours.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive
cars through flooded areas.
This product, along with additional weather and stream information,
is available at https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.
&&
ILC149-171-040345-
/O.CAN.KLSX.FL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-220304T0240Z/
/VALI2.1.ER.220302T0200Z.220302T2030Z.220303T1433Z.NO/
840 PM CST Thu Mar 3 2022
...FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED...
The Flood Warning is cancelled for
the Illinois River at Valley City.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 8:30 PM CST Thursday the stage was 13.9 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to fall to 13.0 feet
Wednesday evening.
&&
Fld Observed Forecasts (6 pm CST)
Location Stg Stg Day/Time Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue
Illinois River
Valley City 14.0 13.9 Thu 8 pm 13.8 13.8 13.7 13.5 13.3
&&
LAT...LON 3977 9067 3977 9053 3952 9052 3952 9064
$$
ILC027-051445-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0008.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/CRLI2.1.ER.220220T2150Z.220224T0045Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
840 PM CST Thu Mar 3 2022
...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Kaskaskia River at Carlyle TW.
* WHEN...Until further notice.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 8:00 PM CST Thursday the stage was 424.2 feet.
- Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
ending at 8:00 PM CST Thursday was 424.2 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 424.2
feet just after midnight tonight.
- Flood stage is 423.5 feet.
&&
Fld Observed Forecasts (6 pm CST)
Location Stg Stg Day/Time Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue
Kaskaskia River
Carlyle TW 423.5 424.2 Thu 8 pm 424.1 424.1 424.0 424.0 424.
&&
LAT...LON 3862 8936 3861 8933 3851 8937 3849 8942
3854 8942
$$
MRBWhat forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS St. Louis, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Feb 23, 11:47 AM CST, 6 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Feb 23, 11:47 AM CST, 6 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1147 AM CST Wed Feb 23 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1108 AM CST Wed Feb 23 2022
Short-range guidance is notably slower than reality depicts in
terms of the onset of our first round of winter weather. An
impressive wave of snow and sleet is moving northeast through
southwest Missouri, forced by isentropic ascent, strong 850-700mb
WAA and strong 925mb CAA beneath the warm nose. Moderate to heavy
sleet has been observed in southwest Missouri, and travel
conditions are deteriorating there. Mid-level lapse rates are
beginning to rise ahead of the precipitation shield, which gives
me concern that we may see and slightly more widespread round of
snow and sleet this afternoon.
PoPs were updated to reflect a quicker onset of the wintry
precipitation and an expansion north of the previous forecast.
Light snow is expected just north of I-70 this afternoon and
evening, with sleet along and south of I-70. Even a little sleet
on roadways can drastically cool pavement temperatures, as seen
last week, which would cause issues for untreated roadways. While
the more robust accumulations are still expected tomorrow, impacts
this afternoon and evening are still expected along and south of
the I-70 corridor.
MRB
&&
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Thursday Night)
Issued at 425 AM CST Wed Feb 23 2022
Confidence remains high in a winter event impacting the region
today through Thursday night. The main points are below, followed
by the forecast details.
1) Timing: The first wave will impact primarily southern portions of
the region this afternoon into this evening. The second wave will
impact the entire region late Thursday morning through Thursday
evening. Light wintry precipitation is possible between the two
waves.
2) Precipitation Type: Primarily snow north of I-44 in MO and I-70
in IL, snow/sleet mix in along the I-44 MO/I-70 IL corridor, and
primarily freezing rain over southeastern MO and southwestern IL.
3) Amounts: 1-3" of snow for areas of primarily snow, around 0.5" of
sleet and an inch or two of snow along the I-44 MO/I-70 IL corridor,
and up to 0.25" of freezing rain accumulation in southeastern MO and
southwest IL.
4) Confidence: Confidence is lower in precipitation amounts along
the snow to snow/sleet transition zone, and snow/sleet to freezing
rain transition zone.
Details:
Today, a disturbance within southwesterly flow aloft will
ripple across the CWA, with the best associated forcing being over
the southern half of the area where deeper moisture resides. The
lift and ample moisture will result in precipitation moving into the
CWA primarily along and south of I-70 early this afternoon and
continuing through this evening. Snow is expected along and just
south of the I-70 corridor, with a wintry mix further south over
southeastern Missouri and southwestern Illinois. Accumulations are
expected to be relatively low from this first wave, with roughly a
half inch of snow along and just south of I-70, and a couple of
tenths of sleet and a glaze of ice over southeastern MO and
southwest IL. Despite these lower amounts, concern for impacts is
high given the timing of precipitation around the evening rush hour.
As the upper-level disturbance moves eastward, the relatively
heavier, more widespread precipitation will dwindle this evening.
However, deterministic guidance consensus is that subtle forcing
aloft will still be present overnight, leading to a slight chance of
intermittent precipitation mainly along and south of I-70. Cloud ice
for some locations will dwindle, particularly south of I-70, and
this will lead to some of this precipitation falling as a mix of
freezing rain or sleet.
Thursday will see the more notable of the two precipitation waves.
Then, ample lift will overspread the region ahead of a shortwave
digging across the central CONUS and a surface low tracking across
the Mid-South, causing wide-spread precipitation to blossom from the
southwest to the northeast during the late morning and continue
through the evening. From this wave, snow accumulations of 1-3" is
expected north of the I-44 MO/I-70 IL corridor. There is some
concern that the deformation zone may produce greater snowfall as it
moves through this portion of the region during the afternoon, but
confidence in this occurring at this time is low. Further south over
the I-44 MO/I-70 IL corridor, model soundings generally support a
mix of sleet and snow. There are still subtle differences among
deterministic guidance in the strength of the warm nose in this
corridor, which may have implications on the predominant
precipitation type (sleet or snow) in the mix over this corridor.
More sleet will lead to less snow, and more snow will lead to less
sleet. Current indications are that this corridor will see 0.5" of
sleet and an inch or two of snow. Finally, freezing rain will be the
predominant precipitation type over southeastern Missouri and
southern Illinois. Here, there is still minor spread in surface
temperatures, which is centered near the freezing point. This spread
is the difference in freezing rain accumulations of 0.1-0.2" on the
low end or 0.25-0.35" on the high end. For areas that see the higher-
end totals, isolated power outages could occur.
As precipitation begins to move out of the region Thursday evening,
the consensus among deterministic guidance is that cloud ice will
diminish, leading to a short window of all precipitation types
changing over to freezing drizzle. Precipitation is anticipated to
clear the CWA by around midnight.
Elmore
.LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 425 AM CST Wed Feb 23 2022
With so much going on in the short-range period, only the highlights
will be touched upon in the extended period. A weakening shortwave
will pass through the Middle Mississippi Valley Saturday into early
Sunday, but moisture will be lacking. Therefore, precipitation is
not anticipated with its passing, and this is supported by the
majority of ensemble members being dry currently.
A broad upper-level trough will dig across the eastern U.S. on
Sunday into the early workweek as a ridge builds across the western
portion of the country. The placement of these upper-level features
will have the Middle Mississippi Vally under northwest flow aloft,
and both deterministic and ensemble consensus is that a shortwave
within this flow will dive southeastward across the region Tuesday.
Despite the consensus among guidance in the passage of this
shortwave, there are understandably difference in its magnitude,
speed, and track at this lead time, leading to uncertainty in
surface conditions. A minority of ensemble members have
precipitation across our CWA associated with this disturbance's
passage, which is also seen in some recent deterministic runs. This
has lead to the most recent NBM initialization blanketing the CWA
with a slight chance of precipitation. With the variability in
guidance in the handling of this feature, I do not have confidence
to alter the initialization. Given that moisture is not currently
expected to be plentiful or deep at that point in the period, and
that what ensemble members that do have precipitation have very
light amounts, confidence is currently high that if precipitation
does occur, it will be very light.
Elmore
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1145 AM CST Wed Feb 23 2022
Ceilings will briefly lift to VFR this afternoon before lowering
back down to MVFR as first round of wintry weather moves into TAF
sites along I-70 corridor. KCOU, KJEF and KUIN will remain mostly
dry with this round, while St. Louis metro area will have brief
MVFR visibility restrictions in light snow through this evening.
Otherwise, most significant round of wintry weather will move in
between 14z and 16z Thursday for TAF sites along I-70 corridor.
Light snow for central Missouri while east central Missouri will
experience a mix of sleet and snow. North surface winds will veer
to the northeast by this evening.
Byrd
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST Thursday night for
Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Madison MO-
Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis
City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Washington MO.
Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST Thursday night for
Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Gasconade MO-
Lincoln MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-
Pike MO-Ralls MO-Warren MO.
IL...Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST Thursday night for Bond
IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-
Randolph IL-Saint Clair-Washington IL.
Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST Thursday night for
Calhoun IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Montgomery IL-
Pike IL.
&&
WFO LSXHazardous weather outlook, Feb 23, 4:57 AM CST, 6 hours 56 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 457 AM CST Wed Feb 23 2022 ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027- 034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-241100- Adams IL-Audrain MO-Bond IL-Boone MO-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Callaway MO- Clinton IL-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Fayette IL-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO- Greene IL-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Jersey IL-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO- Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Madison MO-Marion IL-Marion MO-Moniteau MO- Monroe IL-Monroe MO-Montgomery IL-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike IL- Pike MO-Ralls MO-Randolph IL-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO- Saint Clair-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO- Sainte Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington IL-Washington MO- 457 AM CST Wed Feb 23 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern and central Missouri as well as west central and southwest Illinois. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Accumulating wintry precipitation is expected this afternoon and this evening. A Winter Weather Advisory and a Winter Storm Warning have been issued for portions of the region. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Accumulating wintry precipitation is expected late Thursday morning through Thursday evening. A Winter Weather Advisory and a Winter Storm Warning have been issued for portions of the region. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated through tonight. Elmore
Nearby
River Flood Warnings in Illinois, 2022Every river flood warning in 2022
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.