Wind Advisory 69, NWS Los Angeles, CA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
439 AM PDT Mon May 16 2022

.SYNOPSIS...16/138 AM.

Zonal to northwest flow will continue across the region for much
of next week. This will support a cooling trend through Tuesday
with an increase in northwest winds focused across the mountains
and the Santa Barbara county south coast. Low clouds and fog will
gradually return to many coastal and some valley areas through at
least Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)...16/244 AM.

Weak cyclonic flow and moderate onshore flow to the east along
with a weak eddy have begun to produce this morning's stratus
deck. By dawn the LA coast and lower vlys as well as the Central
Coast should have good stratus coverage. North winds across the
SBA south coast will keep that area cloud free. The VTA coast
will likely only see patchy low clouds. North winds ushered in by
ydy's trof passage will keep advisory level winds going for a few
more hours in the LA mtns and through the day for the western
portion of the SBA south coast. A reinforcing shot of NW winds
aloft and cold air advection will bring a big boost in the north
winds later this afternoon. Warning level gusts to 60 mph will
develop across the western SBA south coast while the eastern
portion will see gusts to 45 or 50 mph. The I-5 corridor and the
NW portions of the Antelope Vly will also see advisory level gusts
between 45 and 50 mph. Cool air advection will lower max temps 4
to 8 degrees today every where except for the SBA south coast and
the Central Coast where there will be offshore flow.

Tonight's stratus pattern will be similar to this morning's but
it will likely develop a little quicker as the eddy should spin up
faster due to stronger winds across the outer waters. The
afternoon's wind warnings and advisories will continue into the
early hours of Tuesday morning (but not the Antelope Vly where
winds will subside by mid evening)

Short range deterministic guidance as well as ensemble based
metrics support the idea of weak troffing on Tuesday and weak
ridging on Wednesday. Ensemble based wind guidance shows another
round of advisory level sundowners across the SBA south coast on
Tuesday evening. Hier hgts and offshore trends will combine to
reduce the marine layer stratus pattern on Wednesday morning. The
troffing will bring cooling to the area. The SBA south coast will
really cool (12-15 degrees) due to lack of offshore flow. On
Wednesday the increased hgts will lead to about 6 degrees of
warming across the board.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...16/316 AM.

he GFS and EC as well as their ensembles are in decent agreement
for Thursday and Friday but then the deterministic mdls diverge
and the ensemble spread grows over the weekend which leads to
decreased confidence for the weekend forecast.

Thursday looks to be a breezy day with the GFS forecasting an 10.5
mb onshore push to the east - the EC is a little tamer at 7 mb.
This strong an onshore push will likely bring advisory level wind
gusts to the Central Coast and the Antelope Vly. It will also
bring a powerful seabreeze and most areas can expect 2 to 4
degrees of cooling. Ensemble cloud forecast is underwhelming and
somewhat in contradiction to the amount of onshore flow forecast
would not be surprised if the morning is a little cloudier than
currently forecast. Most areas will likely cool a few degrees.

An inside slider moves down the CA/NV state line Thursday evening
and early Friday and sets up strong NW flow over the area. The
north push should limit stratus formation and will likely set up
another round of advisory level wind gusts across the SBA south
coast and the I-5 corridor. Max temps will wind up a few degrees
above normal esp south of Point Conception.

As mentioned above there is some disagreement for the forecast
next weekend. The EC and most of its ensembles are troffier and
cooler on Saturday with more stratus and stronger onshore flow. On
Sunday the situation is reversed with the GFS and the bulk of its
ensembles troffier and cooler while the EC has higher hgts and
warmer temps. Oddly the ensembles, when combined, forecast some
warming each day.

&&

.AVIATION...16/1138Z.

At 1000Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1500 ft deep. The top of
the inversion was around 3100 feet with a temperature near 21 C.

Good confidence in TAFs for KPRB, KSBA, KPMD and KWJF.

Low confidence for TAFs for KBUR, KVNY, KOXR and KCMA where there
is a 40 percent chc of IFR cigs 13Z-17Z.

Moderate confidence in remainder of TAFs. Cig hgts could be off
by 300 ft and timing off by +/- 90 minutes.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF through 17Z then good
confidence. There is a 25 percent chc of BKN006 conds through 16Z.
VFR conds could be delayed until 18Z. Lower confidence in return
of low clouds this evening with onset as late as 09Z possible.
Good confidence any east wind component will be less than 7 kt.
KBUR...Low confidence in TAF through 17Z then good confidence.
There is a 40 percent chc of OVC006 conds 13Z-17Z.

&&

.MARINE...16/315 AM.

Moderate-to-high confidence in the current forecast. Poor marine
weather conditions will persist over much of the coastal waters
through midweek. Steep short-period seas will be predominant and
likely will affect most of the coastal waters.

For the waters from southwest through northwest of the Channel
Islands, winds have fallen below gale warning criteria this
morning, but winds are expected to increase again to gale force
later this morning and will likely continue through at least
late tonight. There is a good chance gale force winds will
prevail much of the time later Tuesday through Thursday.

For the nearshore waters along the Central Coast, Small Craft
Advisory (SCA) level winds are likely mainly during the afternoon
and evening hours through at least Thursday.

Inside the southern California bight, gale force winds will very
likely affect the western two- thirds of the Santa Barbara Channel
and the waters in the vicinity of the Channel Islands this
afternoon and evening and a gale warning has been added.
Otherwise, SCA level winds are expected during the afternoon and
evening hours through Tuesday and again on Thursday. Elsewhere
inside the bight, conditions should remain below SCA levels
through the period, but there is a chance of stronger southeast
winds affecting the San Pedro Channel during the overnight and
morning hours with a strengthening eddy circulation.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM PDT
      Tuesday for zones 53-54. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT this morning for zone
      54. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT
      Tuesday for zones 59-350-352. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for
      zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     High Wind Warning in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM
      PDT Tuesday for zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for
      zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 1 PM PDT this afternoon
      for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect from 1 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT
      Tuesday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect until 9 AM PDT Tuesday for zones
      673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

PUBLIC...Rorke
AVIATION...Rorke
MARINE...Hall
SYNOPSIS...Munroe/TF

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox