Wind Advisory 35, NWS Los Angeles, CA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
159 PM PDT Sat Mar 19 2022

.SYNOPSIS...19/158 PM.

Increasing clouds with some light rain and light mountain snow
can be expected over area through early Sunday. Additionally,
strong and gusty winds will develop tonight through Monday for
many areas. For Tuesday through Thursday, a significant warming
trend is expected with a few record highs possible. Dry and
slightly cooler conditions with some night and morning coastal low
clouds and fog can be expected Friday and Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)...19/154 PM.

A fair amount of sunshine developed over VTU/L.A. Counties early
this afternoon, while an upper level trof and surface cold front
was moving into the Central Coast with some light rain and
showers. There has been up to 0.04 inch noted in NW SLO County
thus far. This system will continue to move E and SE thru the rest
of the day, with some light rain possibly reaching into western
VTU County by sunset. Some gusty W winds will develop this
afternoon as well for many areas as good onshore pressure
gradients peak out around +7.8 mb LAX-DAG by 5 PM.

The upper level trof and surface cold will swing thru the rest of
swrn CA tonight with increasing chances of rain across all areas
altho the highest POPs will be over portions of SLO/SBA Counties
and the N mtn slopes of VTU/L.A. Counties. Additional chances of
rain are expected mainly on the N slopes into the Antelope Vly Sun
morning as the system moves slowly E of the region.

The latest rainfall estimates thru Sun morning are for between
0.05-0.20 inch across SLO/SBA counties as well as for the
northern slopes, except locally 0.25-0.50 inch on the far northern
higher slopes around the Kern County line. For most of VTU/L.A.
Counties, less than 0.10 inch can be expected. Snow levels are
expected to remain above 7000 feet through this afternoon, but
should drop to around 5000 feet tonight and Sun morning. The
higher elevations will likely see some light snow accumulations,
but no issues are anticipated at the Grapevine level.

Strong northerly pressure gradient trends are forecast to take
place tonight and Sun and continue into Mon. With good upper
level and thermal support, widespread moderate to strong northwest
to north winds will impact most areas tonight through Mon. The
strongest winds will likely be in the mountains and are expected
to reach warning levels Sunday and Sunday night. As a result, a
HIGH WIND WARNING will be issued for the mountains of Santa
Barbara/Ventura/LA counties with the afternoon zones. In addition,
widespread advisory-level northwesterly winds are expected later
tonight through Sunday night from the SBA County S coast thru the
vlys of VTU County, as well as the Santa Clarita Vly, San
Fernando Vly, Antelope Vly, and Santa Monica Mtns. Wind Advisories
for these areas will also be issued with the afternoon zones.

The upper level trof will move well E of the region Sun afternoon,
followed by upper level ridging building over the E Pac and into
swrn CA Sun night and Mon. A drier airmass will move into the region
Sun afternoon and continue thru Mon, with skies becoming mostly
clear.

Temperatures across the region will be much cooler this afternoon
with most areas S and W of the mtns 3-7 deg below normal, while
the interior mtns and deserts will be a few degrees above normal.
It will turn warmer S and W of the mtns on Sun thanks to
downsloping northerly flow and increased sunshine, but turn
cooler-than-normal for the mtns and deserts. Further warming is
expected on Mon, with temps increasing to 4-8 deg above seasonal
norms for many areas.

Upper level ridging will continue to build into CA Mon night and
Tue. H5 heights over swrn CA will increase to around 582-584 dam
Tue afternoon, along with northerly flow aloft as the ridge exits
stays to the W. Increasing offshore flow to the E can be expected
Mon night and Tue morning, and a round of Advisory-level gusty NE
winds will be possible for the usual areas in VTU/L.A. County, but
should also affect the Central Coast. Mostly clear skies will
continue Mon night and Tue. It will turn much warmer on Tue, with
temps 10-20 deg above normal for many areas. Highs in the warmest
vlys and inland coastal areas should reach well into the 80s to
near 90, with a few record highs possible.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...19/146 PM.

The 12Z EC/GFS were in good agreement. The upper level ridge axis
is forecast to move into CA on Wed, then linger over the region
onto Thu altho H5 heights will slowly lower. The ridge axis will
slowly move E into Fri with a broad SW flow aloft over srn CA. It
looks like a rather deep E Pac upper level trof will start to
approach the region on Sat, with H5 heights lowering further while
the broad SW flow aloft persists.

Skies will be mostly clear across the region Wed thru Sat, except
for some night and morning low clouds and fog along the coast Fri
and Sat. Offshore gradients to the N and E are expected Wed and
Thu, but will be weaker than Tue. However, the upper level ridge
and a warming airmass should lead to temps remaining well above
normal each day, with near record highs especially on Wed. Some
increasing onshore flow Fri and Sat should result in a slight
cooling trend, altho temps should remain well above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...19/1838Z.

At 1816Z, the marine layer at KLAX was 1100 feet deep. The top of
the inversion was at 2200 feet and 12 degrees C.

MVFR conds continuing into tonight. There will likely be some
showers north of Pt Conception from early this afternoon into
this evening as a frontal system moves into the area. As that
front moves southeastward, it will bring a period of MVFR cigs to
areas south of Pt Conception late this afternoon or evening
through late tonight, with a chance of showers. Skies should begin
to clear late tonight and Sun morning, though clouds may linger
on northern slopes.

KLAX...Overall, low to moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. There is a
30% chance that MVFR cigs will arrive as early as 23Z this
afternoon.

KBUR...Overall, moderate confidence the 18Z TAF. There is a
20-30% chance that MVFR cigs will arrive as early as 23Z this
afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...19/144 PM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. Winds will be close to Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels
at times today, especially early this morning, and toward evening,
when local gusts to 25 kt are possible. Gale Force NW winds are
expected to develop quickly this evening in the northern outer
waters zone (PZZ670), spreading into the southern zone (PZZ676)
by late tonight. Gale Force winds will continue thru late Sun
night across the northern zone, but thru at least Mon morning and
probably into Mon afternoon across the southern two zones. SCA
level winds are likely Mon afternoon thru Wed, except winds may be
just below SCA levels across the northern zone Tue into Wed.

For the Inner Waters north of Pt Sal, moderate to high confidence
in current forecast. SCA level NW winds are expected to develop
this evening, then continue for much of the time through late Sun
night. Winds may briefly drop below SCA levels Sun morning.
However, seas will build to SCA levels by late tonight, and remain
that way through mid Mon morning. There is a 40% chance of SCA
level winds Mon afternoon and Mon evening, then winds and seas
should be below SCA levels Tue thru Wed.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. SCA level W-NW winds are expected
to develop this evening, then continue through late Sun night,
except through mid morning Mon across western portions of the SBA
Channel. There is a 30% chance of Gale force winds across western
portions of both zones (PZZ650/PZZ655) late Sun afternoon and
evening. There is a 30% chance of SCA level winds late Mon
afternoon and evening. SCA conds are not expected Tue thru Wed.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory in effect from 6 AM Sunday to 6 AM PDT Monday
      for zones 39-44-45-59-88. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect from 3 PM Sunday to 6 AM PDT Monday
      for zone 46. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     High Wind Warning in effect from 6 AM Sunday to 6 AM PDT
      Monday for zones 52>54. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect from midnight tonight to 6 AM PDT
      Sunday for zones 53-54. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect from 3 AM Sunday to 6 AM PDT Monday
      for zone 547. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM
      PDT Monday for zones 645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 9 PM this evening to 3 AM
      PDT Monday for zone 655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect from 6 PM this evening to 3 AM PDT
      Monday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect from 9 PM this evening to 3 PM PDT
      Monday for zone 673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 9 PM this evening to 3 AM
      PDT Sunday for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect from 3 AM Sunday to 3 PM PDT Monday
      for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

PUBLIC...Sirard
AVIATION...Sweet/BB
MARINE...Sweet/DB
SYNOPSIS...Sirard

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox