Wind Advisory 28, NWS Los Angeles, CA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
112 PM PST Wed Mar 9 2022

.SYNOPSIS...09/111 PM.

The cooling trend will continue into Thursday as an area of low
pressure brushes the area. Gusty northerly winds will develop
Thursday, then turning northeast Friday with warming temperatures
through Saturday. Temperatures are expected to remain above normal
through the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...09/1259 PM.

A cooler day today for coast/valleys as strong onshore trends
have ushered in much cooler air off the ocean. They are also
responsible for the increasing west winds in the Antelope Valley
which will reach advisory levels at times through tonight.

Not much change in the wind dominated forecast the next few days.
Yet another in a winters-long stretch of inside sliders is
currently moving through the Great Basin and will be continuing it
southward trek towards the Colorado River Valley through early
Friday. This trajectory is favorable for a strong push of
northerly flow through the area that will begin during the latter
half of Thursday and peak late Thursday night, mainly impacting
Ventura and LA Counties but with some tangential impacts to
SLO/Santa Barbara Counties as well. Cross sections through model
output continue to indicate deep upper level support for
widespread gusty northerly winds, though not as strong as the
January event as the jet core remains to the east mainly over AZ.
Still, places that typically are sheltered from these winds by
the Transverse Ranges, such as the San Gabriel and eastern San
Fernando Valleys will get some gusty winds at times. Temperatures
Thursday will trend much cooler across the interior with the cold
advection while lower elevations will get some reprieve due to
downsloping, though still on the cool side.

As the low moves farther south Friday the winds will take on more
of a traditional Santa Ana wind event, resulting in stronger winds
in some areas but lighter winds in others. A High Wind Watch was
previously issue for the LA County mountains, and will likely
need wind advisories across much of the rest of LA and Ventura
Counties by Thursday night. Temperatures will climb several
degrees Friday as a ridge moves in from the west and offshore flow
helps warm it even more for coast/valleys.

Saturday offshore flow remains in place but much weaker with much
less upper support. Temps should climb a few more degrees in all
areas with just some lingering morning offshore breezes.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...09/108 PM.

On Sunday the ridge flattens out as a weak trough moves into the
Pac NW. Gradients will trend onshore resulting in cooler temps for
coast/valleys but either little change or slight warming for far
interior areas.

The ridge pops back up Monday with some light offshore trends
which will lead to a few degrees of warming most areas. The little
roller coaster trend of temps continue Tuesday as the ridge moves
east and a weak trough rolls through bringing temps down a few
degrees. Models still hinting at some low rain chances for
northern SLO County with that trough but amounts would be very
light and even smaller chances that rain would get south of Pt
Conception. Main impacts would be cooler temperatures and
increasing clouds.

Longer range trends still not favorable for any significant storms
through the next couple of weeks at least.

&&

.AVIATION...09/1803Z.

At 1739Z at KLAX, the marine layer depth was 1600 feet. The top
of the inversion was at 3200 ft with a temperature of 10 C.

High confidence in most TAFs. Moderate confidence in KSBP, KSMX,
KSMO, KLAX, and KLGB. Mostly MVFR/IFR cigs expected at most
coastal TAF sites after 06z. Timing of cat changes at KLAX and
KLGB may be off by +/- 2 hours and cigs may be as low as BKN015
after 03Z Thursday.

KLAX...Good confidence in the 18z TAF through 03Z then lower
confidence. BKN015 conds could arrive as early as 03Z or as late
as 09Z. Good confidence that any east wind component will be 6 kt
or less. There is a 20 percent chance of east winds reaching 8
knots Thursday morning.

KBUR...High confidence in the 18z TAF through 08Z then lower
confidence as MVFR (30 percent chc of IFR) cigs could arrive as
early as 08Z. There is a 30 percent chc that skies will remain
clear.

&&

.MARINE...09/957 AM.

No changes to the marine forecast in the morning update.

Across the outer waters, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level NW
winds are expected this morning. Gale Force winds are very likely
this afternoon and night. After the gale force winds end SCA
level winds will take their place thru Thurs afternoon.

Across the inner waters N of Pt. Sal, SCA conds are likely this
afternoon and tonight, with a 30% chance of SCA conds lingering
into Thu. There is a 20% chance of Gale Force winds this evening.

SCA level winds are likely across the western half of the SBA
channel later this afternoon and overnight. Good confidence that
the winds across the eastern half will remain below SCA
thresholds.

SCA level N-NE winds are expected Thursday night through Friday
from Ventura to Santa Monica and out to Anacapa and Santa Cruz
Islands, as well as from Orange county out to Catalina Island.
Winds 20+ kt winds are expected with possibility of 30 kt gusts
reaching Avalon and Two Harbors. Steep, short-period, breaking
waves are expected during this time.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...High Wind Watch in effect from Thursday afternoon through
      Friday afternoon for zone 54. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect until midnight PST tonight for zone
      59. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Thursday for
      zones 645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 7 PM Thursday to noon PST
      Friday for zone 655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PST this afternoon
      for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect until 9 AM PST Thursday for zones
      670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK (SAT-WED).

No significant hazards expected.

&&

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...Sweet/Rorke
MARINE...Sweet/Rorke
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox