Gale Warning 40, NWS Los Angeles, CA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1141 PM PDT Tue Jun 7 2022

.SYNOPSIS...07/1259 PM.

High pressure will build over southern California through the week
bringing very warm and dry weather to interior areas, peaking on
Friday and Saturday. A few record high temperatures will be
possible. Coastal areas will be much cooler with continued late
night and morning clouds with patchy fog. Locally gusty north
winds will occur in the Santa Ynez Range through Wednesday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TUE-FRI)...07/755 PM.

***UPDATE***

Short term forecast concerns include locally gusty north winds,
mainly affecting the far western Santa Barbara South Coast with
gusts 40-45 mph with isolated gusts near 50 mph. A Wind Advisory
has been issued for this area, including the western South Coast
and western Santa Ynez Foothills, through late tonight. In
addition, west wind gusts 30-35 mph are affecting the Antelope
Valley, and they should begin to diminish later tonight.

The remaining issue is low cloud coverage near the coast. As high
pressure builds over the area, the marine layer will shrink, with
mainly coastal areas affected. The biggest question marks are with
the Central Coast, with only the Santa Barbara section likely to
see low clouds. There is also a chance that low clouds will move
west from Ventura County along the coast to Santa Barbara,
affecting mainly the eastern beaches. For Ventura and LA Counties,
only the coastal plain and San Gabriel Valley are expected to see
low clouds and fog overnight.

***From Previous Discussion***

One of the first heat waves of the season is expected late this
week as a strong high pressure ridge builds across most of the
western states. The hottest conditions will spread in from the
north and east with the potential for record-breaking high
temperatures on Friday and Saturday for places like Paso Robles,
Cuyama, and Lancaster or Palmdale, mainly from the mountains
northward. The coolest places will be nearest the coastal zones
where onshore gradients and June Gloom will persist.

A weak upper level trough sweeps over the ridge on Wednesday so
heights do not change much from today. Temperatures will continue
to climb a few more degrees and some locations (mainly AV) will
start to see more triple digit readings (Lancaster reached 100
degrees today). Northerly pressure gradients increase slightly
for the potential of stronger wind gusts for the western Santa
Ynez Range Wednesday evening/night.

Thursday and Friday will see heights building to 590dm or higher
with warmer nights leading to warmer day time highs. Coastal areas
will see less low clouds in the morning and more sunshine so
temperatures will climb a few degrees there as well through
Friday. Record highs will be within reach for places like Paso
Robles, Lancaster, and Palmdale on Friday. Burbank even looks good
to see a record warm low minimum that morning. An excessive heat
watch has been issued from the mountains northward to include the
Santa Clarita Valley, Antelope Valley, Cuyama Valley, and eastern
SLO County valleys. EPS, GEFS, and ensemble members have been
advertising this heat event for a few days now and the latest EFI
shows an 80% probability of being an unusual high temperature
event on Friday. There is some uncertainty yet on whether it will
get hot enough for warning levels in the mountains, but with an
approaching summer weekend the message needs to be heat
preparedness. We can figure out the 2 degree details as we get
closer to Friday. Several heat advisories may be necessary on
Friday for the SFV and SGV areas as well.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...07/158 PM.

The ridge axis shifts to the east on Saturday, however, heights
remain much above normal near 590dm and heat waves often continue
to hang on a little longer while the next trough is approaching
the northern CA coast. The excessive heat watch will remain in
place through Saturday evening to account for this, plus that
will be the last hot day of a longer 3-4 day stretch with heat
stress duration becoming a factor on human and animal health.
There could still be a couple of record highs set on Saturday
afternoon as well.

There is very good agreement with GFS and ECM data, and EPS
ensembles for a cool down and onshore pressure gradient increases
to finish out the weekend. Heights drop to about 582-585dm late
Sunday and Monday for the coolest period in the next 7-days, but
still above normal for most areas. Then computer models diverge
toward midweek with GFS solutions being much cooler as another low
pressure trough moves to the West Coast. ECM and EPS ensembles are
more summer-like with heights rebounding above 588dm and possibly
another heat wave from about Tuesday to Thursday next week. This
is favored for now as that has been the more consistent pattern
for several model runs.

&&

.AVIATION...08/0638Z.

At 0513Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1000 ft deep. The top of
the inversion was near 4300 ft with a temperature around 24 C.

Low-to-moderate confidence in the current forecast for KSMX,
Ventura, and L.A. County coastal and valley terminals. High
confidence for remaining TAFs.

There is a 30 percent chc of no low clouds at KSMX. Timing of
flight cat changes could be off by as much as 90 minutes at KBUR,
KVNY, KLGB, KOXR and KVNY. There is a 30 percent chc of no cigs
at KSMO and KLAX from 18Z-02Z.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 30 percent chc of no
LIFR conds overnight. There is a 30 percent chc of SCT conds
18Z-02Z. Good confidence that any east wind component will remain
less than 5 kt.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF through 16Z then good confidence.
There is a 30 percent chance no low clouds.

&&

.MARINE...07/827 PM.

Moderate to high confidence in the current forecast.

Gusty northwest winds and short-period hazardous seas will very
likely persist through at least Thursday, focused over the outer
waters beyond 10 NM off the Central Coast down to San Nicolas
Island in the late afternoons and evenings. A Gale Warning is in
effect through early Wednesday morning. The GALE WATCH remains in
effect for the outer waters. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level
winds with lingering short- period seas could linger into Friday
and Saturday.

Inside the southern California bight, gusty winds and short-period
seas will also affect the Santa Barbara Channel, mainly each
afternoon and evening through Thursday. Gusty winds should become
more isolated farther to the west each day after Wednesday
night.

Winds could strengthen over the weekend with a decent chance of
GALES for the outer waters between Sunday and Monday night.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Excessive Heat Watch in effect from Friday morning through
      Saturday evening for zones 53-54-59-88-343>345-353. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for zones
      349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for
      zones 645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for zones
      670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Watch in effect from Wednesday afternoon through late
      Wednesday night for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

PUBLIC...EB/Smith
AVIATION...Rorke
MARINE...Sweet/Hall
SYNOPSIS...EB

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox