Flash Flood Warning 9, NWS Los Angeles, CA

158 
WGUS76 KLOX 090035
FFSLOX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
435 PM PST Tue Nov 8 2022

CAC037-090045-
/O.CAN.KLOX.FF.W.0009.000000T0000Z-221109T0045Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Los Angeles CA-
435 PM PST Tue Nov 8 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR THE FISH BURN SCAR IS CANCELLED FOR EAST 
CENTRAL LOS ANGELES COUNTY...

The heavy rain has ended. Flash flooding and debris flows are no 
longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to heed remaining 
road closures. Rainfall will continue over the area through tonight.

A Flood Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM PST for a portion of 
southwest California.

LAT...LON 3415 11795 3416 11794 3415 11794 3414 11794
      3414 11795

$$

Phillips

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
203 PM PST Tue Nov 8 2022

.SYNOPSIS...08/153 PM.

Rain and gusty winds will taper off overnight into Wednesday
morning with dry and slightly warmer weather the rest of the
week. A minor Santa Ana wind event Friday will bring gusty winds
to parts of LA/Ventura Counties and warming temperatures closer to
normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...08/149 PM.

The primary cold front is moving through the region this
afternoon with an active narrow band of heavy rain that has
dropped close to 1" per hour in some of the foothill and mountain
areas of southern Santa Barbara and western Ventura Counties. This
will continue moving east through the afternoon reaching Western
LA County by 2pm and then mostly out of the CWA by early evening.
Will be closely watching for any small rotating storms and
waterspouts which aren't uncommon with these convective lines.
There hasn't been any lightning strikes or flashes with this band
since it reached Point Conception but can't rule out some isolated
storms as it moves through the coastal waters.

Winds have been impressive in the LA mountains with multiple 80+
mph reports from automated weather stations with some of that wind
getting into the Antelope Valley foothills. Those will continue
until the cold front pushes through this evening and the mountain
wave dissipates.

Snow levels have been over 7000' for the event so far but are
dropping with the cold front approaching. Radars now indicating
snow levels down to around 6000' as the band comes through and as
low as 5500' in the showers behind it. Overnight as more cold air
filters in and the flow shifts to northwest expect the snow levels
to drop to around 4500 feet. Chances of sticking snow at pass
level of Interstate 5 are still quite low but not zero.

Behind this cold front the heavy rain will turn showery and
scattered in the evening and through the overnight hours. Likely
not too much additional rainfall overnight but some locally heavy
showers are possible, especially in LA County which will still
have the benefit of at least some orographic assistance through
the night.

Aside from a small chance of lingering showers Wednesday morning
most of the area will be clearing out with plenty of sunshine by
afternoon, if not earlier. A cool day still with the cold air
aloft. Highs expected to 10-15 degrees below normal at lower
elevations and up to 25 degrees below normal in the mountains.

Morning lows will be chilly through the rest of the week with some
possible frost in the valleys. Otherwise, a slight warming trend
expected for most areas. Models indicating a minor Santa Ana wind
event Friday with offshore gradients up to -6mb. Not a lot of
upper support with this but high res models indicating winds
peaking in the 30-45 mph across the valleys and mountains of
LA/Ventura Counties. Could be a low end wind advisory event but
will see how the pattern unfolds over the next day or two.

$

MW

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...08/202 PM.

Lower confidence still for the weekend and early next week, though
impacts appear to be minimal either way. EPS solutions are
trending away from any precip this weekend and same for early next
week so it looks like an extended period of dry weather with
fairly high chances that will continue into Thanksgiving week as
the long wave West Coast ridge returns and sends all incoming
storms well north of the area. Some ECMWF EPS solutions are
suggesting another possible Santa Ana event the middle of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...08/1835Z.

At 1735Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer.

Low confidence in TAFs. A relatively fast moving cold front was
pushing through the central coast this morning with moderate to
locally heavy rain. Out ahead of the front, skies were partly to
mostly cloudy with scattered showers. The front will quickly push
east into Ventura and LA counties within the next 2-3 hours. The
front and associated shower activity should be through the
district by late this afternoon or evening. Until then, expect
rapidly changing conditions between VFR and IFR.

Weak to brief moderate LLWS is probably near the cold front, with
periods of moderate LLWS possible for KPMD and KWJF through the
period.

KLAX...Low confidence in TAF. Timing of rain/flight cat changes
may be off by three hours and more than one flight cat. Brief 1sm
+RA ovc003-006 is possible along and just ahead of cold front
(likely after 18Z) and in isolated TSRA (10-20% chance 18Z-00Z),
with a wind shift of at least 30 degrees probable.

KBUR...Low confidence in TAF due to approaching cold front.
Timing of rain and associated flight cat changes may be off by
three hours and one flight cat. Brief 1sm +RA ovc003-006 is
possible along and in isolated TSRA (10-20% chance
18Z-00Z), and just ahead of a cold front (likely after 21Z).

&&

.MARINE...08/903 AM.

An early season strong winter storm will bring strong winds,
large choppy seas, and rain today. Winds will continue to
increase to Gale Force this morning as the front nears, though
exact timing may vary across the waters due to variation in the
arrival time of the front. This will be a relatively faster moving
system once arriving, where the strongest winds may be short-
lived, but could affect a large area over time. Following the
front, winds shift toward the west and are more likely to be
Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels.

Seas may trend a few feet higher than forecast, as Buoy 46028
peaked at 18 feet and Buoy 46011 reached 12 feet early this
morning. Then, SCA seas should linger into early
Wednesday/Wednesday night, most likely across the outer waters.
There is a 40% chance for northwest SCA level winds across areas
near the California Bight on Wednesday afternoon/evening.

Furthermore, there is also 10-20% chance of isolated
thunderstorms that can create gusty and erratic winds, steep seas,
and dangerous lightning. Please see MWSLOX for more details.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Winter Storm Warning in effect until 10 AM PST Wednesday for
      zones 53-54. (See LAXWSWLOX).
     Flood Watch in effect until 10 PM PST this evening for zones
      54-59-88-548. (See LAXFFALOX).
     High Wind Warning in effect until 10 PM PST this evening for
      zone 59. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect until 9 PM PST this evening for zone
      87. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Wednesday morning
      for zones 87-354-362-364. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect until 6 PM PST this evening for zones
      88-349>352-354>359-362>365-547-548. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     High Surf Advisory in effect until 9 AM PST Wednesday for
      zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Gale Warning in effect until 8 PM PST this evening for zones
      650-655-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...Sweet/Lund
MARINE...Sweet/Lund
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox