Beach Hazards Statement 26, NWS Los Angeles, CA

376 
WHUS46 KLOX 110246
CFWLOX

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
646 PM PST Sat Dec 10 2022

CAZ340-346-111700-
/O.CON.KLOX.SU.Y.0020.221211T1700Z-221213T0400Z/
San Luis Obispo County Beaches-
Santa Barbara County Central Coast Beaches-
646 PM PST Sat Dec 10 2022

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 8 PM
PST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Large breaking waves of 10 to 14 feet with local sets 
  to 16 feet with dangerous rip currents.

* WHERE...San Luis Obispo County Beaches and Santa Barbara 
  County Central Coast Beaches, especially west and northwest 
  facing shores.

* WHEN...From 9 AM Sunday to 8 PM PST Monday.

* IMPACTS...There is an increased risk for ocean drowning. Rip 
  currents can pull swimmers and surfers out to sea. Large 
  breaking waves can cause injury, wash people off beaches and 
  rocks, and capsize small boats near shore.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Minor coastal flooding is possible on 
  Sunday morning around the morning high tide.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remain out of the water due to dangerous surf conditions, or stay
near occupied lifeguard towers. Rock jetties can be deadly in
such conditions, stay off the rocks.

&&

$$

CAZ087-354-364-111700-
/O.CON.KLOX.SU.Y.0020.221211T1700Z-221213T0400Z/
Catalina and Santa Barbara Islands-Ventura County Beaches-
Los Angeles County Beaches-
646 PM PST Sat Dec 10 2022

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 8 PM
PST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Large breaking waves of 5 to 9 feet with dangerous rip 
  currents.

* WHERE...Catalina and Santa Barbara Islands, Ventura County 
  Beaches and Los Angeles County Beaches.

* WHEN...From 9 AM Sunday to 8 PM PST Monday.

* IMPACTS...There is an increased risk for ocean drowning. Rip
  currents can pull swimmers and surfers out to sea. Large
  breaking waves can cause injury, wash people off beaches and
  rocks, and capsize small boats near shore.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remain out of the water due to dangerous surf conditions, or stay
near occupied lifeguard towers. Rock jetties can be deadly in
such conditions, stay off the rocks.

&&

$$

CAZ349-350-111700-
/O.CON.KLOX.BH.S.0026.221211T1700Z-221213T0400Z/
Santa Barbara County Southwestern Coast-
Santa Barbara County Southeastern Coast-
646 PM PST Sat Dec 10 2022

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Dangerous rip currents and breaking waves due to 
  elevated surf of 3 to 6 feet expected.

* WHERE...Santa Barbara County Southwestern Coast and Santa 
  Barbara County Southeastern Coast.

* WHEN...From Sunday morning through Monday evening.

* IMPACTS...There is an increased risk of ocean drowning. Rip 
  currents can pull swimmers and surfers out to sea. Waves can 
  wash people off beaches and rocks, and capsize small boats 
  nearshore.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remain out of the water due to hazardous swimming conditions, or
stay near occupied lifeguard towers. Rock jetties can be deadly
in such conditions, stay off the rocks.

&&

$$

176 
WHUS46 KLOX 111707
CFWLOX

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
907 AM PST Sun Dec 11 2022

CAZ340-346-120115-
/O.CON.KLOX.SU.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-221213T0400Z/
San Luis Obispo County Beaches-
Santa Barbara County Central Coast Beaches-
907 AM PST Sun Dec 11 2022

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Large breaking waves of 10 to 14 feet with local sets 
  to 16 feet with dangerous rip currents.

* WHERE...San Luis Obispo County Beaches and Santa Barbara 
  County Central Coast Beaches, especially west and northwest 
  facing shores.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM PST Monday.

* IMPACTS...There is an increased risk for ocean drowning. Rip 
  currents can pull swimmers and surfers out to sea. Large 
  breaking waves can cause injury, wash people off beaches and 
  rocks, and capsize small boats near shore.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Minor coastal flooding is possible this 
  morning around the morning high tide.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remain out of the water due to dangerous surf conditions, or stay
near occupied lifeguard towers. Rock jetties can be deadly in
such conditions, stay off the rocks.

&&

$$

CAZ087-354-364-120115-
/O.CON.KLOX.SU.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-221213T0400Z/
Catalina and Santa Barbara Islands-Ventura County Beaches-
Los Angeles County Beaches-
907 AM PST Sun Dec 11 2022

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Large breaking waves of 5 to 9 feet with dangerous rip 
  currents.

* WHERE...Catalina and Santa Barbara Islands, Ventura County 
  Beaches and Los Angeles County Beaches.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM PST Monday.

* IMPACTS...There is an increased risk for ocean drowning. Rip 
  currents can pull swimmers and surfers out to sea. Large 
  breaking waves can cause injury, wash people off beaches and 
  rocks, and capsize small boats near shore.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Minor coastal flooding is possible this
  morning around the morning high tide, mainly for Ventura County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remain out of the water due to dangerous surf conditions, or stay
near occupied lifeguard towers. Rock jetties can be deadly in
such conditions, stay off the rocks.

&&

$$

CAZ349-350-120115-
/O.CON.KLOX.BH.S.0026.000000T0000Z-221213T0400Z/
Santa Barbara County Southwestern Coast-
Santa Barbara County Southeastern Coast-
907 AM PST Sun Dec 11 2022

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING...

* WHAT...Dangerous rip currents and breaking waves due to 
  elevated surf of 3 to 6 feet expected.

* WHERE...Santa Barbara County Southwestern Coast and Santa 
  Barbara County Southeastern Coast.

* WHEN...Through Monday evening.

* IMPACTS...There is an increased risk of ocean drowning. Rip 
  currents can pull swimmers and surfers out to sea. Waves can 
  wash people off beaches and rocks, and capsize small boats 
  nearshore.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remain out of the water due to hazardous swimming conditions, or
stay near occupied lifeguard towers. Rock jetties can be deadly
in such conditions, stay off the rocks.

&&

$$

Sweet

415 
WHUS46 KLOX 120300
CFWLOX

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
700 PM PST Sun Dec 11 2022

CAZ340-346-121530-
/O.CON.KLOX.SU.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-221213T0400Z/
San Luis Obispo County Beaches-
Santa Barbara County Central Coast Beaches-
700 PM PST Sun Dec 11 2022

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Large breaking waves of 10 to 14 feet with dangerous rip
  currents.

* WHERE...San Luis Obispo County Beaches and Santa Barbara 
  County Central Coast Beaches, especially west and northwest 
  facing shores.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM PST Monday.

* IMPACTS...There is an increased risk for ocean drowning. Rip 
  currents can pull swimmers and surfers out to sea. Large 
  breaking waves can cause injury, wash people off beaches and 
  rocks, and capsize small boats near shore.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remain out of the water due to dangerous surf conditions, or stay
near occupied lifeguard towers. Rock jetties can be deadly in
such conditions, stay off the rocks.

&&

$$

CAZ087-354-364-121530-
/O.CON.KLOX.SU.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-221213T0400Z/
Catalina and Santa Barbara Islands-Ventura County Beaches-
Los Angeles County Beaches-
700 PM PST Sun Dec 11 2022

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Large breaking waves of 5 to 8 feet with dangerous rip 
  currents.

* WHERE...Catalina and Santa Barbara Islands, Ventura County 
  Beaches and Los Angeles County Beaches.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM PST Monday.

* IMPACTS...There is an increased risk for ocean drowning. Rip
  currents can pull swimmers and surfers out to sea. Large
  breaking waves can cause injury, wash people off beaches and
  rocks, and capsize small boats near shore.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remain out of the water due to dangerous surf conditions, or stay
near occupied lifeguard towers. Rock jetties can be deadly in
such conditions, stay off the rocks.

&&

$$

CAZ349-350-121530-
/O.CON.KLOX.BH.S.0026.000000T0000Z-221213T0400Z/
Santa Barbara County Southwestern Coast-
Santa Barbara County Southeastern Coast-
700 PM PST Sun Dec 11 2022

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING...

* WHAT...Dangerous rip currents and breaking waves due to 
  elevated surf of 3 to 6 feet expected.

* WHERE...Santa Barbara County Southwestern Coast and Santa 
  Barbara County Southeastern Coast.

* WHEN...Through Monday evening.

* IMPACTS...There is an increased risk of ocean drowning. Rip 
  currents can pull swimmers and surfers out to sea. Waves can 
  wash people off beaches and rocks, and capsize small boats 
  nearshore.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remain out of the water due to hazardous swimming conditions, or
stay near occupied lifeguard towers. Rock jetties can be deadly
in such conditions, stay off the rocks.

&&

$$

172 
WHUS46 KLOX 121019
CFWLOX

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
219 AM PST Mon Dec 12 2022

CAZ340-346-121830-
/O.CON.KLOX.SU.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-221213T0400Z/
San Luis Obispo County Beaches-
Santa Barbara County Central Coast Beaches-
219 AM PST Mon Dec 12 2022

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Large breaking waves of 10 to 14 feet with dangerous 
  rip currents.

* WHERE...San Luis Obispo County Beaches and Santa Barbara 
  County Central Coast Beaches, especially west and northwest 
  facing shores.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM PST this evening.

* IMPACTS...There is an increased risk for ocean drowning. Rip
  currents can pull swimmers and surfers out to sea. Large
  breaking waves can cause injury, wash people off beaches and
  rocks, and capsize small boats near shore.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remain out of the water due to dangerous surf conditions, or stay
near occupied lifeguard towers. Rock jetties can be deadly in
such conditions, stay off the rocks.

&&

$$

CAZ087-354-364-121830-
/O.CON.KLOX.SU.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-221213T0400Z/
Catalina and Santa Barbara Islands-Ventura County Beaches-
Los Angeles County Beaches-
219 AM PST Mon Dec 12 2022

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Large breaking waves of 5 to 8 feet with dangerous rip 
  currents.

* WHERE...Catalina and Santa Barbara Islands, Ventura County 
  Beaches and Los Angeles County Beaches.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM PST this evening.

* IMPACTS...There is an increased risk for ocean drowning. Rip 
  currents can pull swimmers and surfers out to sea. Large 
  breaking waves can cause injury, wash people off beaches and 
  rocks, and capsize small boats near shore.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remain out of the water due to dangerous surf conditions, or stay
near occupied lifeguard towers. Rock jetties can be deadly in
such conditions, stay off the rocks.

&&

$$

CAZ349-350-121830-
/O.CON.KLOX.BH.S.0026.000000T0000Z-221213T0400Z/
Santa Barbara County Southwestern Coast-
Santa Barbara County Southeastern Coast-
219 AM PST Mon Dec 12 2022

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM PST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Dangerous rip currents and breaking waves due to 
  elevated surf of 3 to 6 feet expected.

* WHERE...Santa Barbara County Southwestern Coast and Santa 
  Barbara County Southeastern Coast.

* WHEN...Through this evening.

* IMPACTS...There is an increased risk of ocean drowning. Rip 
  currents can pull swimmers and surfers out to sea. Waves can 
  wash people off beaches and rocks, and capsize small boats 
  nearshore.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remain out of the water due to hazardous swimming conditions, or
stay near occupied lifeguard towers. Rock jetties can be deadly
in such conditions, stay off the rocks.

&&

$$

031 
WHUS46 KLOX 121822
CFWLOX

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1022 AM PST Mon Dec 12 2022

CAZ340-346-130230-
/O.CON.KLOX.SU.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-221213T0400Z/
San Luis Obispo County Beaches-
Santa Barbara County Central Coast Beaches-
1022 AM PST Mon Dec 12 2022

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Large breaking waves of 10 to 14 feet with dangerous 
  rip currents.

* WHERE...San Luis Obispo County Beaches and Santa Barbara 
  County Central Coast Beaches, especially west and northwest 
  facing shores.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM PST this evening.

* IMPACTS...There is an increased risk for ocean drowning. Rip 
  currents can pull swimmers and surfers out to sea. Large 
  breaking waves can cause injury, wash people off beaches and 
  rocks, and capsize small boats near shore.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remain out of the water due to dangerous surf conditions, or stay
near occupied lifeguard towers. Rock jetties can be deadly in
such conditions, stay off the rocks.

&&

$$

CAZ087-354-364-130230-
/O.CON.KLOX.SU.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-221213T0400Z/
Catalina and Santa Barbara Islands-Ventura County Beaches-
Los Angeles County Beaches-
1022 AM PST Mon Dec 12 2022

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Large breaking waves of 5 to 8 feet with dangerous rip 
  currents.

* WHERE...Catalina and Santa Barbara Islands, Ventura County 
  Beaches and Los Angeles County Beaches.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM PST this evening.

* IMPACTS...There is an increased risk for ocean drowning. Rip 
  currents can pull swimmers and surfers out to sea. Large 
  breaking waves can cause injury, wash people off beaches and 
  rocks, and capsize small boats near shore.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remain out of the water due to dangerous surf conditions, or stay
near occupied lifeguard towers. Rock jetties can be deadly in
such conditions, stay off the rocks.

&&

$$

CAZ349-350-130230-
/O.CON.KLOX.BH.S.0026.000000T0000Z-221213T0400Z/
Santa Barbara County Southwestern Coast-
Santa Barbara County Southeastern Coast-
1022 AM PST Mon Dec 12 2022

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Dangerous rip currents and breaking waves due to 
  elevated surf of 3 to 6 feet expected.

* WHERE...Santa Barbara County Southwestern Coast and Santa 
  Barbara County Southeastern Coast.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM PST this evening.

* IMPACTS...There is an increased risk of ocean drowning. Rip 
  currents can pull swimmers and surfers out to sea. Waves can 
  wash people off beaches and rocks, and capsize small boats 
  nearshore.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remain out of the water due to hazardous swimming conditions, or
stay near occupied lifeguard towers. Rock jetties can be deadly
in such conditions, stay off the rocks.

&&

$$

373 
WHUS46 KLOX 130219
CFWLOX

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
619 PM PST Mon Dec 12 2022

CAZ340-346-130400-
/O.CON.KLOX.SU.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-221213T0400Z/
San Luis Obispo County Beaches-
Santa Barbara County Central Coast Beaches-
619 PM PST Mon Dec 12 2022

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Large breaking waves of 10 to 12 feet with dangerous rip
  currents.

* WHERE...San Luis Obispo County Beaches and Santa Barbara 
  County Central Coast Beaches, especially west and northwest 
  facing shores.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM PST this evening.

* IMPACTS...There is an increased risk for ocean drowning. Rip 
  currents can pull swimmers and surfers out to sea. Large 
  breaking waves can cause injury, wash people off beaches and 
  rocks, and capsize small boats near shore.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remain out of the water due to dangerous surf conditions, or stay
near occupied lifeguard towers. Rock jetties can be deadly in
such conditions, stay off the rocks.

&&

$$

CAZ087-354-364-130400-
/O.CON.KLOX.SU.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-221213T0400Z/
Catalina and Santa Barbara Islands-Ventura County Beaches-
Los Angeles County Beaches-
619 PM PST Mon Dec 12 2022

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Large breaking waves of 5 to 8 feet with dangerous rip 
  currents.

* WHERE...Catalina and Santa Barbara Islands, Ventura County 
  Beaches and Los Angeles County Beaches.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM PST this evening.

* IMPACTS...There is an increased risk for ocean drowning. Rip 
  currents can pull swimmers and surfers out to sea. Large 
  breaking waves can cause injury, wash people off beaches and 
  rocks, and capsize small boats near shore.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remain out of the water due to dangerous surf conditions, or stay
near occupied lifeguard towers. Rock jetties can be deadly in
such conditions, stay off the rocks.

&&

$$

CAZ349-350-130400-
/O.CON.KLOX.BH.S.0026.000000T0000Z-221213T0400Z/
Santa Barbara County Southwestern Coast-
Santa Barbara County Southeastern Coast-
619 PM PST Mon Dec 12 2022

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Dangerous rip currents and breaking waves due to 
  elevated surf of 3 to 6 feet expected.

* WHERE...Santa Barbara County Southwestern Coast and Santa 
  Barbara County Southeastern Coast.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM PST this evening.

* IMPACTS...There is an increased risk of ocean drowning. Rip
  currents can pull swimmers and surfers out to sea. Waves can
  wash people off beaches and rocks, and capsize small boats
  nearshore.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remain out of the water due to hazardous swimming conditions, or 
stay near occupied lifeguard towers. Rock jetties can be deadly in
such conditions, stay off the rocks.

&&

$$

Gomberg/Sweet

249 
WHUS46 KLOX 130418
CFWLOX

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
818 PM PST Mon Dec 12 2022

CAZ087-340-346-354-364-130530-
/O.EXP.KLOX.SU.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-221213T0400Z/
Catalina and Santa Barbara Islands-San Luis Obispo County Beaches-
Santa Barbara County Central Coast Beaches-Ventura County Beaches-
Los Angeles County Beaches-
818 PM PST Mon Dec 12 2022

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

Wave heights will continue to diminish tonight, allowing the high
surf advisory to expire.

$$

CAZ349-350-130530-
/O.EXP.KLOX.BH.S.0026.000000T0000Z-221213T0400Z/
Santa Barbara County Southwestern Coast-
Santa Barbara County Southeastern Coast-
818 PM PST Mon Dec 12 2022

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT HAS EXPIRED...

Wave heights will continue to diminish tonight, allowing the beach
hazards statement to expire.

$$

Gomberg

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1027 AM PST Sat Dec 10 2022

.SYNOPSIS...10/510 AM.

A strong storm system will affect the region from today through
Monday and bring rain and mountain snow, heavy at times, gusty
winds, and high surf. A colder air mass will spread into the
region between Sunday and Monday and bring the possibility of
isolated thunderstorms.  Another storm system could drop into the
region sometime between middle to latter part of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...10/811 AM.

***UPDATE***

Skies were mostly cloudy overall across the forecast area early this
morning as a Pacific storm system slowly approaches the area from
the NW. Pre-frontal moisture has been moving into the Central Coast
and southern SBA County with many areas receiving measurable rain,
with the most rainfall over NW SLO County. Rocky Butte has already
received 1.54 inches of rain in the last 12 hours, while other
nearby areas have had 0.25 to 0.50 inch. The moisture feed will
continue into these areas while slowly moving down the coast thru
this afternoon, with rain moving into Ventura County by late this
morning and possibly western L.A. County through this afternoon.
Additional rainfall today could be significant over the Central
Coast with continuous rainfall ahead of the main frontal band
and good orographic enhancement into the coastal range.

In addition, increasingly strong southerly winds can be expected
thru this afternoon over SLO/SBA Counties and into the higher
terrain of VTU/L.A. Counties. Damaging winds are possible as well
over interior SLO County including the SLO County mtns and over
the interior SBA County mtns where High Wind Warnings are in
effect starting at noon today. There are also Wind Advisories in
effect for the remainder of SLO/SBA Counties starting at noon
today.

***From Previous Discussion***

A strong and cold upper low well to the west of Vancouver Island
will drop south southeastward to off the Oregon coast late this
afternoon, then to a position just off the coast of the
California/Oregon border late tonight. As it does so, a strong jet
will sag southward into the forecast area. A diffluent upper
pattern and improving jet dynamics will allow a surface cold front
to maintain its strength as it sweeps across the region tonight
and early Sunday. This front will move fairly quickly, and it
should bring a 4 to 6 hours period of moderate to heavy rain to
the entire forecast area.

The main frontal band should affect SLO County from very late
this afternoon through midnight or so, SBA County from this
evening through the middle of the night, VTU County from about
midnight through just after daybreak, and L.A. County from the
middle of the night through about noon. This will be a fairly
dynamic front, so will not be surprised if there are a couple of
thunderstorms with it as it rolls through the region. Strong south
to southwest winds up to 55 knots at 850 mb will cause
significant enhancement of the rain on and below southwest facing
slopes ahead of and with the front.

High Wind Warnings are in effect for the mountains of SLO and SBA
Counties and the elevated interior valleys of SLO County this
afternoon through late Sat night, and for the Ventura and L.A.
County mountains and the Antelope Valley this evening through
Sunday morning. Damaging wind gusts of 60 to 70 mph are expected
in these areas. The strongest winds are likely in the LA county
mountains and foothills of the Antelope Valley, where isolated
gusts to 80 mph are possible.

With the front, rainfall rates of one quarter to one half inch
are expected in coastal and valley areas, with rates of one half
inch to one inch in the foothills and mountains due to orographic
enhancement. Rainfall at these rates will likely cause plenty of
urban and street flooding, as well as minor mud and debris flows
in and around recent burn scars. With the potential for rainfall
rates up to one inch per hour, more significant mud and debris
flows are possible, so a Flash Flood Watch is in effect for the
Lake and Fish burn scars in Los Angeles County late tonight
through Sunday afternoon.

Rain will turn to showers by Sunday afternoon, but showers will
likely remain quite numerous through Sun night. Cooling aloft and
a favorable jet position will likely cause some of the showers to
be convective Sun afternoon, with heavy downpours and small hail
possible. Then, all models show the upper low moving right over
the forecast area Sunday night and early Monday. Have added a
slight chance of thunderstorms to the forecast for SLO and SBA
Counties Sun night, and for VTU and L.A. Counties late Sun evening
through mid morning Monday. Since rainfall rates may still be
high, later shifts may have to extend the Flash Flood Watch
through late Sun morning or early Mon morning.

Showers will decrease across the region on Monday as the upper low
pulls east of the region, but could still be fairly numerous in
the morning in eastern sections and on northern slopes.

Rainfall totals should average 1 to 2 inches in coastal and valley
areas and 2 to 6 inches in the foothills and mountains.

Snow levels will be rather high (above 7000-7500 feet) through
tonight, but then will fall quickly later on Sunday as colder air
pushes into the region behind the front, likely as low as 3000 to
4000 feet by late Sunday night into Monday. A Winter Storm Watch
is in effect from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon.
There could be significant snow at high elevations beginning
Sunday, with accumulating snow (up to an inch) on portions of I-5
near the Grapevine late Sun night and early Monday. This could
cause major travel disruptions.

It will be very chilly across the region on Monday. Skies should
clear Mon night making for a very cold night. Freezes are
possible in the Ojai Valley and other colder Ventura County
valleys, with frosts on the Central Coast.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...10/538 AM.

Dry and cool weather is expected Tue as a weak ridge builds into
the region. Beyond that, forecast confidence is exceptionally
low. The operational runs of the GFS and EC are very different.
The GFS flattens out the ridge by Wed as an upper low drops
southward to off the northern CA coast. The EC maintains the
ridge, with an upper low farther west in the Pacific. The GFS
brings the upper low inland well to the north of the region Thu,
while the EC keeps a large upper low in the Pacific, not bringing
it eastward until Fri. There is tremendous spread amongst the
ensemble members. At this point, odds favor dry weather for Wed,
with an increasing chance of rain later in the week.

&&

.AVIATION...10/1826Z.

At 1753Z, there was a deep moist layer up to around 5500 feet.

Low-to-moderate confidence in current forecast. Timing of lower
flight categories could be 2 hour earlier than forecast or an
hour later than forecast. MVFR conditions will become predominant
around 19Z. There is a moderate (30-50 percent) chance of IFR
conditions through 19Z at terminals north of Point Conception,
then IFR conditions will spread north to south after 19Z.

There is a moderate (30-50 percent) chance of period of moderate
to strong low- level wind shear and turbulence as the storm's
frontal boundary moves south.

KLAX...MVFR conditions will become predominant around 19Z. There
is a 30 percent chance of IFR conditions at 07Z Sunday increasing
to 70 percent by 16Z Sunday. Southerly cross winds greater than 20
knots are likely after 08Z Sunday. There is a 30 percent chance
of a period of moderate to strong low-level wind shear and
turbulence after 14Z Sunday. There is a 30 percent chance of
easterly wind component greater than 10 kt Sunday morning.

KBUR...MVFR conditions will become predominant around 19Z. There
is a 30 percent chance of IFR conditions at 08Z Sunday increasing
to 70 percent by 17Z Sunday. There is a 40 percent chance of
period of moderate to strong low-level wind shear and turbulence
after 12Z Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...10/951 AM.

A storm system will affect the waters through Monday. South winds,
at least at Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels with short-period
hazardous seas, will develop by this evening through Sunday
evening. There is a 70-100 percent chance of Gale Force winds for
the waters southwest through northwest of the Channel Islands and
along the Central Coast, highest for the northern portions. There
is a 50 percent chance of Gale force winds developing inside the
southern California bight tonight and into Sunday morning and a
GALE WATCH has been added to the inner waters with the latest
forecast.

Winds will turn west to northwest Sunday through Tuesday. Widespread
SCA conditions are expected through Monday evening with gusty west
to northwest winds and hazardous seas. There is a 50 percent
chance of Gale Force winds on Monday beyond 30 miles from shore
between the Central Coast and San Nicolas Island. Scattered
showers and a 40 percent chance of thunderstorms are expected
Sunday through Monday. Seas will peak between Sunday and Monday
with heights of 12 to 18 feet, except 5 to 8 feet nearshore south
from Santa Barbara to Orange County. Moderate confidence that seas
and winds will subside Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.BEACHES...10/1009 AM.

A storm system will usher in a large northwest swell for Sunday
and Monday. There will be enough westerly component to affect not
only the central coast but also west facing beaches south of Point
Conception.

Breakers of 10 to 14 feet with max sets to 16 feet are expected on
west and northwest facing beaches of the central coast. South of
Point Conception, west facing beaches of LA and Ventura counties.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...High Wind Warning in effect from 7 PM this evening to noon
      PST Sunday for zones 53-54-59. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Winter Storm Watch in effect from Sunday afternoon through
      Monday afternoon for zones 53-54-353. (See LAXWSWLOX).
     Flash Flood Watch in effect from late tonight through Sunday
      afternoon for zones 54-59-548. (See LAXFFALOX).
     High Surf Advisory in effect from 9 AM Sunday to 8 PM PST
      Monday for zones 87-340-346-354-364. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect from 10 PM this evening to noon PST
      Sunday for zones 88-362>365-547-548. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect until 6 AM PST Sunday for zones
      340>343-346>352. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     High Wind Warning in effect until 6 AM PST Sunday for zones
      344-345-353. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect from 7 PM this evening to noon PST
      Sunday for zones 354>359. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PST Sunday for zones
      645-670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 9
      PM PST this evening for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Watch in effect from 9 PM PST this evening through late
      tonight for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 9 PM this evening to 3 AM
      PST Sunday for zone 655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Watch in effect from late tonight through Sunday morning
      for zone 655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 6 PM PST this evening
      for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect from 6 PM this evening to 3 AM PST
      Sunday for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

PUBLIC...DB/Sirard
AVIATION...Sweet/Hall
MARINE...Sweet/Hall
BEACHES...Sweet
SYNOPSIS...Hall

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox