Tornado Warning 10, NWS Chicago, IL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
551 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 548 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022

With storms developing and quickly intensifying within a volatile
environment we have coordinated a tornado watch with the SPC for
northeastern IL and northwestern IN. Low level helicity/shear
along the surface frontal boundary will support super cells with
very large hail and a tornado threat. This threat will continue
into the early evening, likely waning through the mid to late
evening.

KJB

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 357 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022

Through Wednesday night...

After today's shower and thunderstorm activity departs, attention
will return to a brief spell of record or near-record heat that will
grapple the region through Wednesday. For more information regarding
today's thunderstorm threat, please refer to the mesoscale
discussion above.

A warm front currently draped across the forecast area will
eventually lift northward into Wisconsin and Michigan by Tuesday
afternoon, paving the way for widespread 95-100 degree temperatures
to build across the entirety of our CWA by the mid-afternoon hours.
Dew points, which are already in the 70s and even 80s across the
area, will remain at oppressive levels overnight and into Tuesday,
yielding heat indices that will peak in the 105-110F range across
most of the CWA. Not much relief will come overnight with low
temperatures expected to generally remain in the mid to upper 70s
across the area, though some temperature readings possibly might not
even dip below 80 degrees within the core of the Chicago metro
urban heat island. High temperatures on Wednesday should be
similar to or perhaps a smidge lower than Tuesday's highs, while
dew points will remain elevated but likely a few degrees lower
than what they are expected to be on Tuesday. Peak heat indices on
Wednesday will thus be a little lower compared to Tuesday, but
will still hover at or around 105F, so maintained the going Heat
Advisory from Tuesday into Wednesday.

Despite the plethora of low-level moisture, capping aloft will
suppress any attempts at deep convection on Tuesday and Wednesday
and keep us dry through at least Wednesday evening prior to the
arrival of a cold front late Wednesday night. Strong to severe
thunderstorms may be ongoing near the front as it approaches our
forecast area, but will likely be on a downward trend in both
intensity and coverage as they encounter an increasingly stable
environment with time and eastward extent. Nevertheless, at this
point in time, can't rule out these storms still being severe as
they approach the I-39 corridor with damaging winds as the primary
threat due to a favored quasi-linear storm mode owing to deep
layer shear vectors being mostly parallel to the initiating cold
front.

Ogorek

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 357 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022

Thursday through Monday...

Behind the cold frontal passage late Wednesday night/early Thursday
morning, things should remain fairly quiet across our area as
another upper ridge builds across the central CONUS. Conditions are
favored to remain dry after the front has departed through at least
early next week as high pressure dominates over the region. While
some relief from the high temperatures and humidity is expected as
we head into the weekend, there are signs that temperatures will
climb back into the 90s for the start of the next work week.

Ogorek

&&

.CLIMATE...
Updated at 357 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022

Record or near record warmth is forecast. Here are the current
records for Chicago and Rockford:

Chicago
                      High          High Min
Tuesday (6/14)      99 (1987)       75 (1981)
Wednesday (6/15)    95 (1994)       78 (1994)

Rockford
                      High          High Min
Tuesday (6/14)      98 (1987)       77 (1981)
Wednesday (6/15)    95 (1994)       74 (1994)

NWS Chicago

&&

.AVIATION...
For the 18Z TAFs...

1246 PM...Primary forecast concern is thunderstorm coverage and
timing through this evening.

Convective trends have been messy today and there continues to be
the potential for isolated thunderstorms through mid afternoon at
the terminals. There remains the potential for thunderstorms over
southern WI to develop into a large line and move east/southeast
over Lake Michigan and into southern lower MI. Its possible this
activity may get close to ORD, but confidence is fairly low. It
now appears that convection currently developing over far eastern
IL and western IN may become the primary area of convection this
afternoon, which would move east/southeast away from the
terminals. Confidence remains low and updates to the current
forecast are possible.

Prevailing winds likely to remain southeast but either a lake
breeze or an outflow from thunderstorms across southern WI may
shift winds to the northeast this afternoon. Only medium
confidence for specific wind directions and updates to winds are
also possible. Winds will eventually shift southerly overnight and
then turn south/southwest Tuesday morning with gusts into the
15-20kt range.

Much of guidance is hinting at the potential for fog late this
evening through the predawn hours Tuesday morning, prior to the
winds turning back southerly. Given how moist the low levels will
be and with a boundary nearby, there will likely be some patchy
fog but confidence is fairly low. There may also be some ifr or
lifr cigs during this time as well. cms

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Heat Advisory...ILZ010-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-
     ILZ039-ILZ106-ILZ107-ILZ108 until 8 PM Wednesday.

     Heat Advisory...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ011-ILZ012-
     ILZ013-ILZ103-ILZ104-ILZ105...noon Tuesday to 8 PM
     Wednesday.

IN...Heat Advisory...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 until 8 PM
     Wednesday.

LM...None.
&&

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL
420 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022

ILZ003>006-008-010>013-019>021-023-032-033-039-103>108-INZ001-002-
010-011-019-142130-
Winnebago-Boone-McHenry-Lake IL-Ogle-Lee-De Kalb-Kane-DuPage-
La Salle-Kendall-Grundy-Kankakee-Livingston-Iroquois-Ford-
Northern Cook-Central Cook-Southern Cook-Northern Will-
Southern Will-Eastern Will-Lake IN-Porter-Newton-Jasper-Benton-
420 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022 /520 PM EDT Mon Jun 13 2022/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North Central
Illinois...Northeast Illinois and Northwest Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited Thunderstorm Risk...with an associated:
     Limited damaging wind risk...up to 60 mph.
     Limited Tornado risk.
     Limited hail risk...up to half dollar size.
  Significant Excessive Heat Risk.

DISCUSSION...

The threat of severe storms over much of the area continues to
diminish. However, a small threat continues through 8 pm this
evening, primarily east of a line from near Harvard, Illinois
southeastward through Valparaiso, Indiana. Strong damaging winds
and large hail, would be the primary threats with any storms.

Oppressive heat and humidity will result in very muggy conditions
across the area tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Tuesday...
  Significant Excessive Heat Risk.
Wednesday...
  Limited Severe Thunderstorm Risk.
  Elevated Excessive Heat Risk.

DISCUSSION:

Dangerous heat continues Tuesday and Wednesday. Peak heat indices
of 105 to 110 are expected Tuesday and 97 to 105 on Wednesday.

There is a chance of thunderstorms late Wednesday into early
Thursday morning. Some storms may be strong.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 Spotters may be needed through early this evening over parts of
far northeastern Illinois.

GENERAL STORM MOTION OF THE DAY:

  Moving toward the east at 50 mph.

LMZ740>745-142130-
Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL-
Wilmette Harbor to Northerly Island IL-
Northerly Island to Calumet Harbor IL-
Calumet Harbor IL to Gary IN-Gary to Burns Harbor IN-
Burns Harbor to Michigan City IN-
420 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Illinois
nearshore waters of Lake Michigan and the Indiana nearshore
waters of Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited Thunderstorm Risk...with an associated:
    Limited thunderstorm wind gust risk...up to 60 knots.
    Limited hail risk...up to half dollar size.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Wednesday...
  Limited Thunderstorm Risk.

KJB

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
655 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0644 PM     TSTM WND GST     OHARE AIRPORT           41.98N 87.90W
06/13/2022  M84 MPH          COOK               IL   ASOS

            CORRECTS PREVIOUS NON-TSTM WND GST REPORT
            FROM OHARE AIRPORT. ASOS STATION KORD
            CHICAGO O''HARE.

&&

SB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
656 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     HAIL             PARK RIDGE              42.01N 87.84W
06/13/2022  E1.00 INCH       COOK               IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
657 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PARK RIDGE              42.01N 87.84W
06/13/2022                   COOK               IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NUMEROUS LIMBS REPORTED DOWN IN TOWN.

&&

SB