High Wind Warning 2, NWS Chicago, IL

980 
WWUS73 KLOT 051318
NPWLOT

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Chicago IL
818 AM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022

ILZ004-005-011-012-019-020-052130-
/O.UPG.KLOT.WI.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-221106T0000Z/
/O.EXA.KLOT.HW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-221106T0000Z/
Boone-McHenry-De Kalb-Kane-La Salle-Kendall-
Including the cities of Belvidere, Crystal Lake, Algonquin, 
McHenry, Woodstock, DeKalb, Sycamore, Aurora, Elgin, Ottawa, 
Streator, La Salle, Mendota, Marseilles, Oswego, Yorkville, 
and Plano
818 AM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 25 to 30 mph with gusts up to 60 mph.

* WHERE...Boone, McHenry, De Kalb, Kane, La Salle and Kendall 
  Counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM CDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The strongest winds with gusts up to 65 mph
  are expected through noon. Thereafter, gusts up to 55 will
  continue through sunset.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

ILZ006-013-021-023-032-033-039-103>108-INZ001-002-010-011-019-
052130-
/O.CON.KLOT.HW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-221106T0000Z/
Lake IL-DuPage-Grundy-Kankakee-Livingston-Iroquois-Ford-
Northern Cook-Central Cook-Southern Cook-Northern Will-
Southern Will-Eastern Will-Lake IN-Porter-Newton-Jasper-Benton-
Including the cities of Waukegan, Buffalo Grove, Mundelein, 
Gurnee, Naperville, Wheaton, Downers Grove, Lombard, 
Carol Stream, Morris, Coal City, Minooka, Kankakee, Bourbonnais, 
Bradley, Pontiac, Dwight, Fairbury, Watseka, Gilman, Paxton, 
Gibson City, Evanston, Des Plaines, Schaumburg, Palatine, 
Northbrook, Chicago, Cicero, Oak Lawn, Oak Park, La Grange, 
Calumet City, Oak Forest, Lemont, Orland Park, Park Forest, 
Joliet, Bolingbrook, Plainfield, Mokena, Channahon, Manhattan, 
Wilmington, Crete, Peotone, Beecher, Gary, Hammond, Merrillville,
Portage, Valparaiso, Chesterton, Roselawn, Kentland, Morocco, 
Rensselaer, DeMotte, Fowler, and Oxford
818 AM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022 /918 AM EDT Sat Nov 5 2022/

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 60 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of central, east central and northeast 
  Illinois and northwest Indiana.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM CDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The strongest winds with gusts up to 65 mph
  are expected through noon. Thereafter, gusts up to 55 will
  continue through sunset.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

ILZ003-008-010-052130-
/O.CON.KLOT.WI.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-221106T0000Z/
Winnebago-Ogle-Lee-
Including the cities of Rockford, Rochelle, Oregon, Byron, 
and Dixon
818 AM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Winnebago, Ogle and Lee Counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM CDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

Doom

716 
WWUS73 KLOT 051553
NPWLOT

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Chicago IL
1053 AM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022

ILZ004>006-011>013-019>021-023-032-033-039-103>108-INZ001-002-010-
011-019-060000-
/O.CON.KLOT.HW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-221106T0000Z/
Boone-McHenry-Lake IL-De Kalb-Kane-DuPage-La Salle-Kendall-Grundy-
Kankakee-Livingston-Iroquois-Ford-Northern Cook-Central Cook-
Southern Cook-Northern Will-Southern Will-Eastern Will-Lake IN-
Porter-Newton-Jasper-Benton-
Including the cities of Belvidere, Crystal Lake, Algonquin, 
McHenry, Woodstock, Waukegan, Buffalo Grove, Mundelein, Gurnee, 
DeKalb, Sycamore, Aurora, Elgin, Naperville, Wheaton, 
Downers Grove, Lombard, Carol Stream, Ottawa, Streator, La Salle,
Mendota, Marseilles, Oswego, Yorkville, Plano, Morris, Coal City,
Minooka, Kankakee, Bourbonnais, Bradley, Pontiac, Dwight, 
Fairbury, Watseka, Gilman, Paxton, Gibson City, Evanston, 
Des Plaines, Schaumburg, Palatine, Northbrook, Chicago, Cicero, 
Oak Lawn, Oak Park, La Grange, Calumet City, Oak Forest, Lemont, 
Orland Park, Park Forest, Joliet, Bolingbrook, Plainfield, 
Mokena, Channahon, Manhattan, Wilmington, Crete, Peotone, 
Beecher, Gary, Hammond, Merrillville, Portage, Valparaiso, 
Chesterton, Roselawn, Kentland, Morocco, Rensselaer, DeMotte, 
Fowler, and Oxford
1053 AM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022 /1153 AM EDT Sat Nov 5 2022/

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 60 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of central, east central, north central and 
  northeast Illinois and northwest Indiana.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM CDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The strongest winds with gusts up to 65 mph
  are expected through noon. Thereafter, gusts up to 55 will
  continue through sunset.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

ILZ003-008-010-060000-
/O.CON.KLOT.WI.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-221106T0000Z/
Winnebago-Ogle-Lee-
Including the cities of Rockford, Rochelle, Oregon, Byron, 
and Dixon
1053 AM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Winnebago, Ogle and Lee Counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM CDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

669 
WWUS73 KLOT 052031
NPWLOT

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Chicago IL
331 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022

ILZ004>006-011>013-019>021-023-032-033-039-103>108-INZ001-002-010-
011-019-060000-
/O.CON.KLOT.HW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-221106T0000Z/
Boone-McHenry-Lake IL-De Kalb-Kane-DuPage-La Salle-Kendall-Grundy-
Kankakee-Livingston-Iroquois-Ford-Northern Cook-Central Cook-
Southern Cook-Northern Will-Southern Will-Eastern Will-Lake IN-
Porter-Newton-Jasper-Benton-
Including the cities of Belvidere, Crystal Lake, Algonquin, 
McHenry, Woodstock, Waukegan, Buffalo Grove, Mundelein, Gurnee, 
DeKalb, Sycamore, Aurora, Elgin, Naperville, Wheaton, 
Downers Grove, Lombard, Carol Stream, Ottawa, Streator, La Salle,
Mendota, Marseilles, Oswego, Yorkville, Plano, Morris, Coal City,
Minooka, Kankakee, Bourbonnais, Bradley, Pontiac, Dwight, 
Fairbury, Watseka, Gilman, Paxton, Gibson City, Evanston, 
Des Plaines, Schaumburg, Palatine, Northbrook, Chicago, Cicero, 
Oak Lawn, Oak Park, La Grange, Calumet City, Oak Forest, Lemont, 
Orland Park, Park Forest, Joliet, Bolingbrook, Plainfield, 
Mokena, Channahon, Manhattan, Wilmington, Crete, Peotone, 
Beecher, Gary, Hammond, Merrillville, Portage, Valparaiso, 
Chesterton, Roselawn, Kentland, Morocco, Rensselaer, DeMotte, 
Fowler, and Oxford
331 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022 /431 PM EDT Sat Nov 5 2022/

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 60 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of central, east central, north central and 
  northeast Illinois and northwest Indiana.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM CDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines.
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult,
  especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

ILZ003-008-010-060000-
/O.CON.KLOT.WI.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-221106T0000Z/
Winnebago-Ogle-Lee-
Including the cities of Rockford, Rochelle, Oregon, Byron, 
and Dixon
331 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Winnebago, Ogle and Lee Counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM CDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

227 
WWUS73 KLOT 052348
NPWLOT

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Chicago IL
648 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022

ILZ004>006-011>013-019>021-023-032-033-039-103>108-INZ001-002-010-
011-019-060100-
/O.EXP.KLOT.HW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-221106T0000Z/
Boone-McHenry-Lake IL-De Kalb-Kane-DuPage-La Salle-Kendall-Grundy-
Kankakee-Livingston-Iroquois-Ford-Northern Cook-Central Cook-
Southern Cook-Northern Will-Southern Will-Eastern Will-Lake IN-
Porter-Newton-Jasper-Benton-
Including the cities of Belvidere, Crystal Lake, Algonquin, 
McHenry, Woodstock, Waukegan, Buffalo Grove, Mundelein, Gurnee, 
DeKalb, Sycamore, Aurora, Elgin, Naperville, Wheaton, 
Downers Grove, Lombard, Carol Stream, Ottawa, Streator, La Salle,
Mendota, Marseilles, Oswego, Yorkville, Plano, Morris, Coal City,
Minooka, Kankakee, Bourbonnais, Bradley, Pontiac, Dwight, 
Fairbury, Watseka, Gilman, Paxton, Gibson City, Evanston, 
Des Plaines, Schaumburg, Palatine, Northbrook, Chicago, Cicero, 
Oak Lawn, Oak Park, La Grange, Calumet City, Oak Forest, Lemont, 
Orland Park, Park Forest, Joliet, Bolingbrook, Plainfield, 
Mokena, Channahon, Manhattan, Wilmington, Crete, Peotone, 
Beecher, Gary, Hammond, Merrillville, Portage, Valparaiso, 
Chesterton, Roselawn, Kentland, Morocco, Rensselaer, DeMotte, 
Fowler, and Oxford
648 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022 /748 PM EDT Sat Nov 5 2022/

...HIGH WIND WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

Winds have subsided and will continue to quickly abate this
evening, therefore the high wind warning is being allowed to
expire. 

$$

ILZ003-008-010-060100-
/O.EXP.KLOT.WI.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-221106T0000Z/
Winnebago-Ogle-Lee-
Including the cities of Rockford, Rochelle, Oregon, Byron, 
and Dixon
648 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

Winds have subsided and will continue to quickly abate this
evening, therefore the wind advisory is being allowed to expire as
scheduled.

$$

- Izzi

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
125 AM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 922 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022

No big changes planned this evening, going forecast looks to be in
good shape.

Should see a dramatic ramp up in winds early Saturday morning,
particularly as the warm conveyor belt shifts east. There should
be an envelope of strong, potentially damaging southerly winds
ahead of the cold front and associated squall line. Always very
tricky in warm sector, warm air advection set-up determining how
effectively the boundary layer will mix. Assuming there is a
several hour break in precip between the warm conveyor and squall
line, it seems quite reasonable that boundary layer could deepen
some and begin to tap into some of the extremely strong winds just
off the deck. Working in favor of this scenario is the very strong
pressure falls over WI tomorrow morning in advance of the rapidly
moving and rapidly deepening sfc low. There is certainly potential
for 50kt+ gusts if rain doesn't linger and keep things a bit more
stable. Opted to hold off on upgrading to a high wind warning on
this shift, but think the chances are slowly increasing that there
will be at least scattered 50kt+ gusts, especially eastern and
southern CWA.

Threat of thunder & lightning tonight (and Saturday morning) is
low, however as trough becomes negatively tilted overnight and
cyclone begins to rapidly intensify very strong forcing could
result in some convective elements within and especially along the
leading edge of the encroaching warm conveyor developing. Given
the extremely strong low level jet, cannot rule out a damaging
wind threat with any of these type of convective elements
overnight, especially if they can becoming oriented more
orthogonal to the LLJ. Threat of this is low, with southern CWA
favored due to lower static stability.

Squall line is likely to accompany cold front that will rapidly
sweep across the CWA mid-late morning Saturday. Certainly
plausible we could see 45-55kt gusts with this squall line, though
many areas could already be gusting that strong out ahead of the
squall line. In the wake of the cold front, could see a couple
hours of potentially flirting with 50kt+ gusts before strongest
pressure rises shift north into Wisconsin and wind fields slowly
abate mid-late afternoon.

- Izzi

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 340 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022

Through Saturday night...

Main forecast points:
* Low chance for a strong to marginally severe storm or two to
  occur somewhere along or west of the I-39 corridor through
  early this evening.
* Widespread showers move through the area overnight with
  occasional embedded lightning possible.
* Winds increasing in strength tonight and into tomorrow with
  continuous 45-55 mph gusts beginning as early as about 4 AM CDT
  and continuing through the late afternoon on Saturday. A Wind
  Advisory remains in effect to highlight these hazardous winds,
  which may down tree limbs and cause scattered power outages.
* Band of showers moving in along the cold front behind the main
  wave of showers tomorrow morning, with potential for severe-
  caliber wind gusts to occur as these showers pass through.

Discussion:

A busy period of weather is in store for much of the central CONUS
over the next 24-36 hours as a deep upper-level trough ejects
from the southern Plains into the Midwest, eventually acquiring a
negative tilt in the process. The low-level mass response to the
trough ejection will feature a rapidly deepening surface cyclone
develop west of the Mississippi River before sliding northeastward
up the Mississippi River Valley overnight into Saturday and
eventually occluding by Saturday afternoon as its tracks into
Wisconsin. As this occurs, the cold front associated with this
surface low will be thrusted through our forecast area, bringing
with it some showers both ahead of it and along it, while
consolidating pressure fields around the deepening low will induce
a period of strong winds across the region through much of the
day on Saturday.

While surface cyclogenesis is still in its nascent stages, there is
nevertheless no shortage of active weather in the region with a
quasi-stationary frontal zone parked just west of our CWA and warm
air advection/isentropic ascent generating showers and even a few
thunderstorms east of it. While the warm air advection-driven shower
activity has just about exited our forecast area (as of this
writing) to the north, an expansive swath of precipitation continues
to stream northeastward along the frontal zone with intermittent
stronger convection riding along its eastern flank, where an
eastward-propagating composite outflow boundary/effective cold front
has been augmenting larger scale lifting processes. As this boundary
creeps eastward, so will the precipitation, and it appears probable
at this point that showers, and potentially a few thunderstorms,
should at least clip our northwestern CWA late this afternoon and
into this evening. While lapse rates are fairly mushy and instability
will be on a downward trend come this evening, the environment is
highly sheared and will support storm organization within any of
the deeper convective cores that go up, so cannot rule out the
possibility of a strong to marginally severe storm impacting some
of our northwestern locales through about 9 PM CDT or so. Small to
marginally severe hail would be the primary threat with that, but
gusty winds of 40 mph or greater appear possible as well.

Precipitation associated with the frontal zone should remain
confined to areas generally along and west of the I-39 corridor
until around midnight, at which point, the precipitation shield will
begin to make more appreciable progress into our CWA as the
aforementioned surface low begins to deepen and start to forcefully
drive everything eastward/northeastward. Instability will be
meager to non-existent at this point, so expecting most of the
overnight precipitation to remain as just showers, but could
foresee some occasional embedded lightning occurring within any
pockets of stronger forcing.

As the surface low deepens and approaches, winds will strengthen
considerably overnight, with gusts of 45-55 mph eventually expected
to occur on a mostly continuous basis throughout the most of the day
on Saturday. During the overnight and early-mid morning hours, how
strong gusts get will be dictated by how robust the low-level jet on
the east side of the low becomes and how deep we are able to mix
into it. The HRRR and RAP are fairly aggressive with the magnitude
of the low-level jet, suggesting that 60-65 kt flow will materialize
at as low as 2000 ft AGL at peak intensity. Other guidance is a
bit more subdued than that, but if the HRRR/RAP verify, it's
possible that our morning pre-frontal wind gusts could end up
being slightly higher than currently advertised. However, despite
ongoing warm air advection, the pre-frontal rainfall will likely
hamper how deeply we'll be able to mix, so confidence in wind
gusts exceeding 55 mph prior to the passage of the cold front
remains relatively low at this time.

Hi-res guidance remains in good agreement that a strongly-forced
line of showers will develop along the incoming cold front tomorrow
morning. While these showers will be brief, they'll be fairly
squally in nature and could produce temporary higher-end wind gusts
of 55 mph or greater as the prevailing winds begin to shift from
southerly to southwesterly as the front surges through. Behind
the cold front, winds will continue to gust to 45+ mph in the cold
air advection regime before gradually subsiding towards the late
afternoon and evening as the surface low continues to peel off to
the northeast. With there still being some uncertainty over
whether gusts will reach 58 mph or higher at any point in time on
Saturday, we and our neighboring NWS forecast offices have opted
to forgo an upgrade to a High Wind Warning and instead have held
on to the going region-wide Wind Advisory for now. Will continue
to note that this is a higher-end Wind Advisory, and if confidence
increases in slightly stronger wind gusts occurring at any time
on Saturday, then the evening or overnight shift may need to
upgrade this to a High Wind Warning.

Ogorek

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 253 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022

Sunday through Friday...

The second half of our weekend will be far quieter than the first.
Early Sunday, the jet will begin to steadily lift to our north
taking much of our moisture with it. This will result in lots of sun
and no rain in the forecast on Sunday. The height rises aloft and
the southerly return flow at the surface stemming from the large
surface High out in the mid-Atlantic will allow temperatures to warm
into the lower 60's across the area. Breezy conditions will continue
into Sunday with a still-tight surface pressure gradient and some
enhanced low level flow. However, winds will not be nearly as strong
as Saturday. Gusts Sunday morning will be in the 20-25 mph range and
will gradually die down through the day as the pressure gradient
loosens up a bit.

Temperatures will cool down a few degrees for Monday with a surface
High approaching from the northwest Sunday night introducing some
cool NW surface flow. Highs on Monday will top out in the middle and
upper 50's. This is still warmer than average for this time of year,
though certainly much closer to average than we've seen so far this
month. Temperatures are back on the up and up beginning Tuesday with
the aforementioned surface High moving to our northeast bringing
some mild return flow to the area. Additionally, a quickly
strengthening upper High in the down in the Southeast will result in
rapid ridging over the Midwest. Highs will climb into the upper
50's/low 60's on Tuesday and middle 60's on Wednesday. The synoptic-
scale subsidence will be more than enough to keep the area dry
through at least Wednesday.

On the windward side of the ridge, a speedy jet max will drop a
quickly deepening Low at the surface over the northern Plains on
Wednesday. A loosely-organized warm front will set itself up over
the Midwest and could potentially bring us some light showers as
early as Wednesday night. Rain chances increase through the day on
Thursday as the cold front approaches. The best shot for some decent
rain will occur late Thursday into early Friday when the front moves
across the area. The trailing cool airmass is expected to bring
highs down from mid 60's on Thursday to lower and middle 50's on
Friday.

Doom

&&

.AVIATION...
For the 06Z TAFs...

Low pressure over western Missouri early this morning will undergo
rapid intensification as it races northward into eastern IA by
daybreak, then into WI into early this afternoon. This storm
system will produce several aviation weather hazards today. These
include:
* Increasingly gusty south winds overnight, with surface gusts of
  topping 35 kt at times.
* Strong Low-Level Wind Shear (LLWS) overnight, with 60+ kt of
  flow at 1,500 feet AGL.
* Low MVFR CIGs with a period of showers overnight.
* Even stronger winds during the day today, with gusts of 45+ kt
  likely.
* Fast moving line of low topped convective showers with a cold
  frontal passage late this morning (may produce locally stronger
  wind gusts in excess of 50 kt briefly).

While the showers and lower MVFR CIGs will be of some concern
today, by far the most significant aviation weather concern today
revolves around the strong winds expected. Southerly winds are
already occasionally gusting in excess of 35kt, and these winds
will only continue to strengthen over the next several hours
overnight. Very strong winds, (nearing 60 kt) are currently being
sampled around 1,000 ft AGL on the KLOT VAD wind profile, which
suggests that strong low-level wind shear is ongoing, and will
continue to be a significant concern into this morning.

Southerly surface wind gusts are likely to begin to top 40 kt
around, or shortly after daybreak today in advance of a fast
moving cold front. This front is expected to sweep across the
area in the 16 to 17z timeframe, and signs continue to point to
a fast moving narrow band of low-topped showers accompanying its
passage later this morning. While these showers will not
necessarily produce lightning, their convective nature will
allow them to easily drag down some very strong winds from aloft.
As such, we could see a brief period of 50+ kt gusts as this line
of showers along the front races eastward later this morning. I
have added a mention for these locally stronger winds in the
tempo group for showers in the 16 to 17z hour for the main Chicago
area terminals.

After the front races through the area around, or just prior to
midday, winds will shift southwesterly and remain quiet strong,
with gusts around 45 kt, through the remainder of the afternoon.
Expect the winds to ease significantly this evening with sunset.

KJB

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 926 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022

Have upgraded to a storm warning for Saturday. Seems increasingly
likely that there will be a period of southerly storm force gusts
during the mid-late morning hours ahead of a strong front, which
too, could bring a couple/few hour long period of southwesterly
storm force wind gust into at least the early afternoon. Winds
should gradually abate starting mid-late afternoon and continue to
ease into the evening hours.

- Izzi

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Wind Advisory...ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039-
     ILZ106-ILZ107-ILZ108...4 AM Saturday to 4 PM Saturday.

     Wind Advisory...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-
     ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ103-ILZ104-ILZ105...4 AM Saturday to 7 PM
     Saturday.

IN...Wind Advisory...INZ001-INZ002...4 AM Saturday to 7 PM Saturday.

     Wind Advisory...INZ010-INZ011-INZ019...4 AM Saturday to 4 PM
     Saturday.

LM...Small Craft Advisory...nearshore waters until 7 AM Saturday.

     Storm Warning...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...7 AM
     Saturday to 3 PM Saturday.

&&

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Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL
949 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022

ILZ003>006-008-010>013-019>021-023-032-033-039-103>108-INZ001-002-
010-011-019-060300-
Winnebago-Boone-McHenry-Lake IL-Ogle-Lee-De Kalb-Kane-DuPage-
La Salle-Kendall-Grundy-Kankakee-Livingston-Iroquois-Ford-
Northern Cook-Central Cook-Southern Cook-Northern Will-
Southern Will-Eastern Will-Lake IN-Porter-Newton-Jasper-Benton-
949 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022 /1049 PM EDT Fri Nov 4 2022/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North Central
Illinois...Northeast Illinois and Northwest Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited Thunderstorm Risk...with an associated:
     Limited damaging wind risk...up to 60 mph
  Elevated Non Thunderstorm Wind Risk.

DISCUSSION...

Rain, with some embedded thunderstorms, will overspread the area
overnight. One or two of the storms could produce locally damaging
winds, mainly across northwest Indiana and south of Interstate 55
in Illinois. Outside of any thunderstorms, winds could still
occasionally gust to around 40 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Saturday...
  Significant Non Thunderstorm Wind Risk.

DISCUSSION:

  Very strong, potentially damaging, winds are likely Saturday.
  Peak gusts over 50 mph are likely.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation is not anticipated.

GENERAL STORM MOTION OF THE DAY:

  Moving toward northeast at 50 mph.

LMZ740>745-060300-
Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL-
Wilmette Harbor to Northerly Island IL-
Northerly Island to Calumet Harbor IL-
Calumet Harbor IL to Gary IN-Gary to Burns Harbor IN-
Burns Harbor to Michigan City IN-
949 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Illinois
nearshore waters of Lake Michigan and the Indiana nearshore
waters of Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Gale force winds and or very hazardous waves.
  Limited Thunderstorm Risk...with an associated:
     Limited thunderstorm wind gust risk...up to 50 knots.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Saturday...
  Storm force winds and or extremely hazardous waves are likely.
Sunday through Tuesday...
  Hazardous conditions for small craft are likely.

- Izzi

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