Severe Thunderstorm Warning 80, NWS Louisville, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
141 PM EDT Thu May 19 2022

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 1050 AM EDT Thu May 19 2022

Latest VIS satellite imagery locates an MCV moving through Missouri
while a diffuse surface boundary extends west-east along the
Tennessee Valley, where some orphan anvils have been observed.
Expect the MCV to move east-northeast today as it lifts the boundary
northward towards central Kentucky and southern Indiana. There will
be plenty of conditional instability during the late afternoon and
early evening along with theta-e advection and sufficient shear.
Therefore, storm organization and maintenance won't be a problem
provided that convective initiation satisfactorily takes place. So
far, models have different solutions on how this scenario might
evolve going into the evening, but can discern a trend for, at
least, isolated storms to fire up by around 20-21Z with a
east-northeast general motion.

&&

.Short Term...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 330 AM EDT Thu May 19 2022

...Possible Strong to Severe Storms this Afternoon/Evening...

Observations as well as GOES16 satellite fog products show patchy
areas of dense fog across central KY and southern IN this morning.
Visibility has dropped as low as a quarter of a mile in some spots
especially in areas that saw rain yesterday evening. A Special
Weather Statement is in place for the entire area due to the fog
this morning.

Other than the fog, we start the day quiet with dry conditions and
partly cloudy skies. Stalled sfc boundary which was the focus for
overnight showers/storms across southern KY will slowly move back
northward during the morning. Another MCS currently over Oklahoma
and southern KS will result in a MCV that works eastward through the
day aiding in the redevelopment of thunderstorms across the Mid
Mississippi and Ohio Valleys later this afternoon and evening. The
main focus for severe storm development will be along and south of
the aforementioned sfc boundary where temperatures will warm into
the mid 80s with dew points in the in the upper 60s to near 70
degrees F. Strong afternoon destabilization is expected with CAPE
values ranging from 2500 to over 4000 J/kg across the area with
moderate deep layer shear. Once again, we could could see isolated
supercells to multicellular clusters that could produce large hail
and strong damaging wind gusts. Given the some of the model sounding
hodograph and low-level directional shear, isolated tornadoes can
not be ruled out. This corresponds nicely with the SPC's Day One
Outlook placing most of central KY and southern IN in a Slight Risk
for severe weather. Along with the severe weather threat, any storms
that form will produce heavy rains as PWAT values will range from
1.40" to 1.60", localized flooding is once again a concern.

Sfc boundary is expected to lift northward and out of the area
overnight bringing an end to the showers and storms. While things
dry out and skies clear, temperatures will remain warm with lows in
the upper 60s with low 70s in our more urbanized areas.

&&

.Long Term...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu May 19 2022

Synopsis: Warm front will lift to the north of the region Friday
into Friday night with near record max temps Friday.  A cold front
will move through the Ohio Valley region Saturday into Sunday with
chances for thunderstorms and cooler temps. High pressure and mostly
dry Monday into Tuesday before the next active weather chances
Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Friday into Saturday Morning: Strong WAA at the surface and through
the lower level profile will allow for well above normal temps (by
10-15 degrees) across the region. Lots of available instability
aloft, but a CAP in place and lack of moisture will not allow for
much in the way of precipitation (if any).  Dry adiabatic profiles
will allow for decent mixing aloft, leading to dry air and wind
gusts approaching 35 mph at times is not out of the question for
Friday afternoon. Inversion set up after sunset will stop most of
the gusty winds with a warm night well above average ahead of an
incoming cold front.

Saturday into Sunday: Cold front moving through the area coupled
with unstable profile and ample moisture will bring chances for
light to moderate rain and thunderstorms.  Lack of good wind
dynamics should limit severe potential, but trends are for a stormy
weekend nonetheless.  With the good instability in place, an
isolated strong to severe storm is still possible somewhere across
the region this weekend.

Monday into Wednesday: Much cooler weather as a high pressure moves
into the region, with 48 hour highs dropping by 15 to 20 degrees
across the area from Saturday into the mid 70s by Monday. Temps
slowly warm back into the upper 70s to lower 80s by Tuesday, which
is closer to normal for late May.  Mostly dry conditions expected,
although some chances for thunderstorms are possible.  A warm front
approaches with a return of southerly flow ahead of a cold front for
Wednesday, which will bring the next chances for active weather.

&&

.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 140 PM EDT Thu May 19 2022

Weather conditions will deteriorate throughout the afternoon and
early evening as scattered convection develops from west to east.
There is still uncertainty in the model guidance for convection
timing and location which can be explained by the weak nature of the
forcing. Included TEMPO groups in HNB, LEX, and SDF where there is
better agreement on storm probabilities late in the afternoon and
early evening. Non-convective winds will gust this afternoon ahead
of an increasing LLJ; the same that will grant a mention of wind
shear at all terminals overnight. For tomorrow, drier airmass and
clear skies will favor VFR conditions; however, southwesterly flow
will gusts between 25-30 kts.

&&

.Climate...
Updated at 300 AM EDT Thu May 19 2022

================== Near-Record High & Warm Minimum Temperatures =====

                  Fri Morning     Fri Afternoon       Sat Morning
                              forecast/record (date)

Louisville:       72/72 (1877)     93/91 (2018)       73/72 (1877)

Bowling Green:    70/69 (1998)     91/96 (1921)       70/71 (2004)

Lexington:        68/69 (1996)     91/91 (1944)       70/69 (1893)

Frankfort:        68/73 (2004)     91/92 (1964)       70/69 (2004)

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

Update...ALL
Short Term...BTN
Long Term...MCK
Aviation...ALL
Climate...MCK

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1053 AM EDT THU MAY 19 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0355 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 WNW RINEYVILLE        37.76N 86.00W
05/18/2022                   HARDIN             KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN ALONG BERRYTOWN ROAD.
            EVENT TIME BASED ON RADAR DATA.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1055 AM EDT THU MAY 19 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0354 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 WNW RINEYVILLE        37.76N 86.01W
05/18/2022                   HARDIN             KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL TREES DOWNED ALONG WITH SOME BARN
            DAMAGE REPORTED BY COUNTY EM. EVENT TIME
            BASED ON RADAR.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1057 AM EDT THU MAY 19 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0358 PM     TSTM WND DMG     RINEYVILLE              37.75N 85.97W
05/18/2022                   HARDIN             KY   PUBLIC

            TREE FELL ONTO HOME FROM PICTURES ON SOCIAL
            MEDIA. EVENT TIME BASED ON RADAR DATA.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1245 PM EDT THU MAY 19 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0536 PM     HAIL             2 E NEW MARKET          37.50N 85.28W
05/18/2022  M1.50 INCH       MARION             KY   PUBLIC

            1.5 INCH DIAMETER HAIL MEASURED BY PUBLIC ON
            EAST CALVARY RD. TIME ESTIMATED BASED ON
            RADAR IMAGERY.

&&