Severe Thunderstorm Warning 39, NWS Louisville, KY

553 
WWUS53 KLMK 190412
SVSLMK

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1212 AM EDT Sat Mar 19 2022

KYC185-190422-
/O.CAN.KLMK.SV.W.0039.000000T0000Z-220319T0430Z/
Oldham KY-
1212 AM EDT Sat Mar 19 2022

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN OLDHAM COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3861 8522 3858 8521 3860 8508 3856 8506
      3857 8504 3855 8500 3851 8503 3852 8500
      3851 8498 3849 8499 3848 8497 3842 8530
      3848 8533 3849 8531 3850 8534 3853 8535
      3864 8524
TIME...MOT...LOC 0412Z 231DEG 33KT 3848 8527 

$$

KYC103-223-190430-
/O.CON.KLMK.SV.W.0039.000000T0000Z-220319T0430Z/
Trimble KY-Henry KY-
1212 AM EDT Sat Mar 19 2022

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1230 AM EDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN TRIMBLE AND CENTRAL HENRY COUNTIES...

At 1212 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near New Castle,
moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
southeastern Trimble and central Henry Counties, including the
following locations... Pendleton, Campbellsburg, Port Royal, Drennon
Springs, Lacie, Delville, Turners Station, Sulphur and Sligo.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3861 8522 3858 8521 3860 8508 3856 8506
      3857 8504 3855 8500 3851 8503 3852 8500
      3851 8498 3849 8499 3848 8497 3842 8530
      3848 8533 3849 8531 3850 8534 3853 8535
      3864 8524
TIME...MOT...LOC 0412Z 231DEG 33KT 3848 8527 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

BJS

648 
WWUS53 KLMK 190432
SVSLMK

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1232 AM EDT Sat Mar 19 2022

KYC103-223-190442-
/O.EXP.KLMK.SV.W.0039.000000T0000Z-220319T0430Z/
Trimble KY-Henry KY-
1232 AM EDT Sat Mar 19 2022

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN TRIMBLE AND
CENTRAL HENRY COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and has exited the warned area. Therefore, the warning has
been allowed to expire.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
Louisville.

LAT...LON 3861 8522 3858 8521 3860 8508 3856 8506
      3857 8504 3855 8500 3851 8503 3852 8500
      3851 8498 3849 8499 3848 8497 3842 8530
      3848 8533 3849 8531 3850 8534 3853 8535
      3864 8524
TIME...MOT...LOC 0432Z 231DEG 33KT 3858 8509 

$$

BJS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1116 PM EDT Fri Mar 18 2022

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 1110 PM EDT Sat Mar 19 2022

Two main storms we are keeping an eye on currently. The first storm
is tracking into far SW Jefferson County at this time. While we have
not confirmed a tornado with this warning, the storm did produce at
least some minor damage earlier in Breckinridge County with reports
of some powerlines down. The second storm that is just pushing out
of Hardin County near the Nelson/Bullitt County lines did exhibit
what was likely to be a TDS and debris ball earlier near Rineyville,
KY although has since weakened. Will continue to keep a close eye on
these storms.

Mesoanalysis indicates a very small, uncapped area with around 250
J/kg of SBCAPE where these storms are occurring which is also
collocated with a small area of Effective Shear ~35-40 kts and ESRH
~100 m2/s2. While the environment remains incredibly marginal, the
potential remains for these quick spin-up tornadoes where able to
become surface based. In general expect the environment to become
less favorable as these storms progress eastward.

&&

.Short Term...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 325 PM EDT Fri Mar 18 2022

...Strong to Severe Storms Possible This Evening...

Closed upper low over Missouri is almost stacked with a 1001mb sfc
low between COU and STL. Upper trof is quite negatively tilted with
the axis extending into the Deep South, but the sfc cold front
stretches almost due south into NE Arkansas. A decent dry slot has
punched northward through western Kentucky into southern Indiana.

Convection is already developing along/ahead of the sfc front, and
should continue to blossom the rest of the afternoon, but moisture
supply has been iffy with dewpoints only in the lower/mid 50s. If
cells can get going, there are strong mid-level lapse rates and very
favorable low-level shear to support rotating storms capable of
producing large hail. We have less confidence in the storms becoming
sfc-based to produce damaging winds or tornadoes, but with progs of
roughly 500 J/kg for both CAPE and DCAPE, we can't rule it out.

Prime time for severe wx in our area will be from roughly 23Z from
Jasper to Rough River Lake to west of Bowling Green, through 04-05Z
from the I-75 corridor to Lake Cumberland. The best chances for
severe weather will be along and west of I-65, as the environment
will become less favorable as the storms push farther east.

Storms will push east of the I-75 corridor around midnight or
shortly thereafter. Sfc low lifts into the Great Lakes during the
day Saturday, but the flow remains cyclonically curved and temps
aloft are quite cold. Saturday will feature scattered showers and
areas of intermitent drizzle, with temperatures basically flatlined
near 50 through the day.

.Long Term...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 325 PM EDT Fri Mar 18 2022

Synopsis...The medium range forecast begins with a fairly
progressive and amplified pattern across the CONUS. Initially, there
will be a pair of mid-level troughs in each coastal range flanking a
ridge building along the Mississippi River basin. By the middle of
next week the pattern will completely reverse as this time the West
Coast trough will move towards the central US to be sandwiched by
two ridges. The zonal flow will slow down substantially allowing the
trough to be rather stagnant and eventually develop a closed low.
This synoptic-scale set up translates to deep southwesterly flow and
enhanced theta-e transport over the Ohio Valley.

Sunday - Monday... After a sunless and breezy Saturday, conditions
will greatly improve on Sunday. The axis of the East Coast trough
will depart the area and increasing heights aloft associated with
the approaching ridge will provide clear skies and light
southwesterly winds. Also, hi-res models started to indicate a low
chance of fog during sunrise on Sunday and given the available pool
moisture and strong low-level subsidence this might not be out of
the question. Monday will still be dry and mostly sunny, but as the
day progresses a cloud deck will stream from the southwest. Temps
will be on the rise, especially on Monday, due to southerly WAA.

Tuesday - Thursday...The main story for this period will be the
possibility of periods of heavy rain and localized flooding
concerns. Overall, the GFS IVT forecast portrays a prolonged
residence time of fairly high moisture transport for the middle of
the week. Therefore, a combination of high precipitation efficiency
and residence time over the lower Ohio Valley might result in
widespread storm totals in the 2-3 in range with higher isolated
amounts. A decisive factor will be the antecedent soil moisture
conditions after this weekend event and how favorable the
environment can be for backbuilding and/or training. Last but not
least,the HEFS guidance is showing rivers along the Green River
basin exceeding the minor flood threshold by the second half of next
week.

Friday...As per the latest guidance, rain will be leaving central
Kentucky during the early morning hours as temps hang over the low
40s. Westerly winds and a slow clearing trend will take place in the
afternoon with highs in the upper 50s.

&&

.Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 800 PM EDT Fri Mar 18 2022

Line of showers and storms expected to push through the area later
this evening along a N-S oriented cold front. As the front
approaches, included 3-hour TEMPO groups at each of the sites to
cover most likely period for strong to severe thunderstorms to
occur, generally between 19/01Z-06Z. Reductions in visibility and
lower ceilings will also be possible within any storms. In the wake
of the cold front, ceilings are expected to MVFR range and even IFR
range at HNB/LEX and potentially SDF. These low clouds will hang
around through much of the remainder of the TAF period before
gradually scattering out by Saturday evening. Light rain and drizzle
will be possible through the overnight hours and into the day
Saturday beneath the low clouds.

Winds will remain out of the S/SW at around 10-15 kts ahead of the
front with gusts to 25 kts possible. Behind the front, expect winds
to shift to the west with gusts to 25 kts continuing through
Saturday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

Update...JML
Short Term...RAS
Long Term...ALL
Aviation...JML

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
340 PM EDT Fri Mar 18 2022

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-191945-
Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison-
Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-
Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-
Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Mercer-Jessamine-Larue-Marion-Boyle-
Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-
Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-
Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, Jasper,
English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville, Lewisport,
Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Hartford, Leitchfield,
Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville, La Grange, Bedford,
Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort, Georgetown, Cynthiana,
Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Lexington, Paris, Carlisle,
Bardstown, Springfield, Harrodsburg, Nicholasville, Winchester,
Hodgenville, Lebanon, Danville, Lancaster, Richmond, Morgantown,
Brownsville, Horse Cave, Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty,
Stanford, Russellville, Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence,
Scottsville, Glasgow, Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown,
Burkesville, and Albany
340 PM EDT Fri Mar 18 2022 /240 PM CDT Fri Mar 18 2022/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Strong to severe storms are possible this evening ahead of an
approaching cold front. The strongest storms will be capable of
producing large hail, locally damaging winds, and possibly an
isolated tornado or two. The most likely time frame for severe
weather is between 6 PM and midnight, with the best chances west of
Interstate 65.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Another storm system will bring heavy rainfall Tuesday into Wednesday,
possibly resulting in localized flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required this evening.

RAS/ALL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
805 PM CDT Fri Mar 18 2022

KYZ024-026-027-061-190145-
Grayson KY-Butler KY-Ohio KY-Breckinridge KY-
805 PM CDT Fri Mar 18 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of north central
Butler, northwestern Grayson, southwestern Breckinridge and Ohio
Counties through 845 PM CDT...

At 804 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Hartford, moving east at 30 mph. Some rotation has been noted with
this storm. It may intensify.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Hartford around 815 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3736 8712 3738 8709 3748 8711 3756 8704
      3765 8645 3730 8674 3727 8693 3726 8696
      3726 8697 3727 8698 3732 8699 3736 8703
      3737 8707 3733 8711 3734 8714
TIME...MOT...LOC 0104Z 249DEG 28KT 3737 8696

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

BJS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
955 PM EDT Fri Mar 18 2022

KYZ024-027-028-190245-
Grayson KY-Hardin KY-Breckinridge KY-
955 PM EDT Fri Mar 18 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Grayson,
southwestern Hardin and southern Breckinridge Counties through 1045
PM EDT/945 PM CDT/...

At 954 PM EDT/854 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm 9 miles west of Leitchfield, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Leitchfield around 910 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3781 8607 3749 8588 3740 8656 3769 8658
TIME...MOT...LOC 0154Z 253DEG 33KT 3753 8645

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

BJS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1027 PM EDT Fri Mar 18 2022

KYZ028-190300-
Hardin KY-
1027 PM EDT Fri Mar 18 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Hardin
County through 1100 PM EDT...

At 1027 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles west of Elizabethtown, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Elizabethtown around 1045 PM EDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3785 8582 3767 8572 3767 8573 3754 8610
      3757 8611 3757 8612 3770 8619
TIME...MOT...LOC 0227Z 244DEG 34KT 3765 8608

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1104 PM EDT FRI MAR 18 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1043 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 E GARFIELD            37.78N 86.32W
03/18/2022                   BRECKINRIDGE       KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            VIA NWS CHAT, TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED POWER
            LINES DOWN IN THORNHILL ESTATES AND DAMAGE
            REPORTS FROM FIREFIGHTERS OF DAMAGE IN THE
            NEIGHBORHOOD.

&&

BTN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1130 PM EDT FRI MAR 18 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1124 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 NW OKOLONA            38.18N 85.74W
03/18/2022  M68 MPH          JEFFERSON          KY   ASOS

            KSDF ASOS MEASURED 68 MPH WIND GUST...

&&

BTN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1144 PM EDT FRI MAR 18 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1136 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 SW SAINT MATTHEWS     38.23N 85.66W
03/18/2022  M58 MPH          JEFFERSON          KY   ASOS

            KLOU ASOS MEASURED WIND GUST OF 58 MPH.

&&

BTN