Severe Thunderstorm Warning 253, NWS Louisville, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
639 PM EST Tue Nov 29 2022

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Short Term...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 235 PM EST Tue Nov 29 2022

...Strong Possibly Severe Storm Threat Tonight...

Synopsis... A cold front accompanied by strong winds will push
through the area tonight bringing strong storms, some of which may
be severe. Main threats associated with these storms will be
damaging winds, though a smaller threat of hail and a tornado or
two exists. Outside of storms, strong gradient winds will continue
into tonight with gusts 30-40mph possible.

TONIGHT

Discussion... Tight pressure gradient between low pressure to
our west and high pressure along the east coast will continue to
produce strong winds ahead of the front. As such, will extend the
SPS for gusty winds 30-40mph possible until 30/02Z.

Current radar shows a somewhat disorganized line of showers and
storms from southern Illinois southward into Louisiana. Convection
that has made its way into western KY so far has decreased in
strength as they move into a more stable and dry environment: recent
AMDAR sounding out of SDF shows a subsidence inversion around 900mb
with meager lapse rates in the mid levels.

But as the day progresses, strong winds aloft will begin to pump
warm, moist air into the area, which will destabilize the
environment allowing for storms to gain strength. Latest CAM
guidance continues to show a stable layer in the lower levels that
should keep storms elevated with most of the wind energy remaining
aloft, but this stable layer does degrade overnight as the cold
front approaches.

Threats... Damaging winds remain the primary hazard with these
storms. As a stout 60kt LLJ advances over the region tonight, SSE
surface winds veering SW with height will result in loopy hodographs
with 0-3 SRH values exceeding 800 m2/s2. Rotating storms will be
possible, though models do show strong unidirectional flow above
800mb. This will help to limit the hail threat, along with 10kft WBZ
heights. And with the aforementioned stable layer and higher LCL
heights (>1000m), any tornado threat will remain low but non-zero.

Timing... CAM guidance remains consistent with regards to timing as
the HRRR remains the faster solution and the NAM trailing by about
two hours. Sub-severe convection, entering our western CWA
currently, will continue this afternoon before the stronger threat
arrives this evening and overnight. Best chances for severe storms
west of I-65 will likely occur between 8pm and 3am EST and east of
I-65 from roughly 10pm to 5am EST.

TOMORROW

Discussion... The cold front and precipitation should be east of our
area by sunrise. Expect low clouds to linger until mid morning
before giving way to mostly sunny skies. Cold air behind the front
will see drastic drop in temperatures with morning lows in the 30s
and afternoon highs in the 40s. Brisk, strong winds will continue
out of the NW tomorrow with gusts in the 20-25mph range, gradually
decreasing throughout the afternoon.

.Long Term...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 215 PM EST Tue Nov 29 2022

Impactful weather:
- Gusty winds are possible ahead of a weak cold front Friday night
into Saturday. Right now, wind gusts to around 30 mph look possible.

- Occasional heavy rainfall is possible starting later Sunday and
continuing into early next week as a frontal boundary sets up over
the region with an influx of warm, moist air from the Gulf. Due to
the recent lack of heavy rain, major problems are not expected on
area rivers at this time.

Forecast Discussion: Over the long term, battle continues between
Gulf ridge and cold intrusions out of Canada. Upper trough moves
across the northern U.S. Friday through Sunday. Next trough drops a
bit deeper into the Plains and Great Lakes early next week.

High pressure settles over the area Thursday with below normal
nighttime temperatures expected Wednesday night and Thursday night.
The first trough spins up a strong surface low over the Plains
Friday and drives it northeast into the Canadian maritimes through
the weekend. That will push a weak cold front through here Saturday
morning. Gusty winds and some rain is likely with the front Friday
night and Saturday. Southwest flow will drive moist air and above
into the area Monday. This will set the stage for what could be a
couple day rainfall event as a warm front sets up nearby starting
Sunday and continuing into the early next week. Another cold front
moves through the area later Tuesday with colder air/below normal
temperatures behind it.

&&

.Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 639 PM EST Tue Nov 29 2022

IMPACTS:
-Gusty winds through tonight, including LLWS roughly WS020/19050KT
-Widespread showers and storms this evening into the overnight
-MVFR ceilings/visibility at times; possible IFR in strongest storms

DISCUSSION:
Low pressure system still on track to impact area terminals with
gusty southerly winds, thunderstorms, and MVFR ceilings and
visibility this evening into the overnight hours. IFR conditions
are also possible in the strongest of storms. Low level wind shear
will also be an impact around 2K feet from the south around
40-50kts, ending by 6z. By daybreak, VFR conditions should return
as the front passes by late Wednesday morning with skies clearing
and WNW winds through Wednesday evening.

CONFIDENCE:
Medium on all elements.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

Short Term...CG
Long Term...KJF
Aviation...MK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
442 PM EST Tue Nov 29 2022

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-302145-
Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison-
Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-
Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-
Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Mercer-Jessamine-Larue-Marion-Boyle-
Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-
Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-
Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, Jasper,
English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville, Lewisport,
Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Hartford, Leitchfield,
Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville, La Grange, Bedford,
Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort, Georgetown, Cynthiana,
Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Lexington, Paris, Carlisle,
Bardstown, Springfield, Harrodsburg, Nicholasville, Winchester,
Hodgenville, Lebanon, Danville, Lancaster, Richmond, Morgantown,
Brownsville, Horse Cave, Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty,
Stanford, Russellville, Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence,
Scottsville, Glasgow, Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown,
Burkesville, and Albany
442 PM EST Tue Nov 29 2022 /342 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2022/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms will be possible late this afternoon and evening ahead
of an approaching cold front. Some storms may be strong to severe
with damaging winds as the primary severe weather hazard. In addition
an isolated tornado threat cannot be ruled out.

Outside of thunderstorms tonight, gusty south winds will be seen.
Sustained winds of 15-20 mph with gusts of 35-40 mph are likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required this evening and into the
overnight period.

GENERAL STORM MOTION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT:

Storms will move from the west southwest to east northeast at 45 to
55 mph.

Any users of this storm motion must be aware that thunderstorm
activity can be erratic and constantly evolving. Please use this with
caution and be prepared for changing conditions.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and
climate information can be found, at weather.gov/louisville.

CG/KF/RJS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
812 PM EST Tue Nov 29 2022

KYZ028-029-038-045-053-300145-
Bullitt KY-Spencer KY-Nelson KY-Hardin KY-Larue KY-
812 PM EST Tue Nov 29 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Spencer, Nelson,
central Larue, east central Hardin and central Bullitt Counties
through 845 PM EST...

At 812 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Hodgenville, moving northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Bardstown around 830 PM EST.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Taylorsville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3803 8511 3799 8516 3800 8516 3798 8517
      3750 8574 3763 8591 3794 8569 3814 8541
TIME...MOT...LOC 0112Z 223DEG 64KT 3760 8577

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

JDG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
714 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2022

KYZ062>064-074-076-300145-
Hart KY-Metcalfe KY-Edmonson KY-Barren KY-Green KY-
714 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Green, southeastern
Hart, northern Barren, northwestern Metcalfe and southeastern
Edmonson Counties through 745 PM CST...

At 714 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Glasgow, moving northeast at 60 mph.

HAZARD...Half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Three Springs around 730 PM CST.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Greensburg.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3705 8612 3706 8612 3740 8555 3724 8540
      3723 8541 3722 8539 3695 8601
TIME...MOT...LOC 0114Z 237DEG 56KT 3706 8597

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

BJS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
828 PM EST Tue Nov 29 2022

KYZ039-040-046>048-054>056-300200-
Boyle KY-Mercer KY-Woodford KY-Jessamine KY-Marion KY-Washington KY-
Garrard KY-Anderson KY-
828 PM EST Tue Nov 29 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Mercer, southern
Woodford, northwestern Garrard, east central Anderson, east central
Marion, western Jessamine, southeastern Washington and northwestern
Boyle Counties through 900 PM EST...

At 828 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles east of Springfield, moving northeast at 65 mph.

HAZARD...Nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Harrodsburg around 845 PM EST.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Nicholasville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3756 8508 3765 8523 3806 8475 3786 8453
TIME...MOT...LOC 0128Z 233DEG 58KT 3765 8510

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

BJS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
734 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2022

KYZ070-300200-
Logan KY-
734 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Logan County through
800 PM CST...

At 734 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Guthrie, moving northeast at 65 mph.

HAZARD...Penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Russellville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3676 8705 3679 8706 3692 8706 3704 8689
      3685 8669 3667 8706 3674 8706
TIME...MOT...LOC 0134Z 232DEG 55KT 3666 8726

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

BJS

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