Severe Thunderstorm Warning 231, NWS Louisville, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
311 PM EDT Thu Aug 4 2022

.Short Term...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 310 PM EDT Thu Aug 4 2022

...Heavy Rainfall Likely Through Friday...
...Scattered Flash Flooding Possible Due To Excessive Rainfall...

A slow-moving MCV drifting east-northeast over the Lower Ohio Valley
will bring periods of showers and thunderstorms to the region this
afternoon through Friday. The slow motion is critical, as it will
maximize residence time of deep, moist convergence and lift over the
CWA tonight into tomorrow. Low to mid-level wind fields will
continue to be enhanced on the southeastern flank of the MCV, with
the southwesterly LLJ forecast to increase to 25 kts after sunset.

In addition, moderate destabilization has occurred this afternoon
immediately downstream of the MCV. This has supported a diurnal
increase of convective activity, despite poor mid-level lapse rates
and weak shear. While instability decreases overnight, the enhanced
low-level jet should help support continued development.

Persistent SW to NE motion of showers and storms overnight will
result in training as the MCV crosses the area. PW values are
forecast to increase to 2+ inches tonight into Friday, mainly
northwest of a Bowling Green to Lexington line. Warm cloud depths
approaching 15 kft will promote very efficient warm rain processes.

Based on the environmental factors above, have issued a Flood Watch
for a significant portion of central Kentucky and southern Indiana.
1 to 3 inches of rainfall is forecast through Friday evening within
the watch area. However, HREF probability-matched mean QPF supports
the idea of localized swaths of 3-5+ inches. Slow movement and
persistent training of moderate to heavy rainfall rates could result
in several inches of rain within narrow swaths. This would result in
flash flooding, and an instance or two of significant flash flooding
cannot be ruled out.

&&

.Long Term...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 310 PM EDT Thu Aug 4 2022

...Unsettled Weather Expected Through Much of the Extended Period...

Friday Night - Sunday Night...

The very slowly meandering MCV looks to still be in our region by
Friday night, only slowly lifting NE of the area on Saturday. Even
with the disturbance gone, scattered showers and storms are expected
through the weekend due to a moist and unstable atmosphere, and a
relative weakness in the upper ridge. Slow moving storms in
conjunction with favorable parameters for efficient rainfall will
allow for a continued heavy rain threat through the weekend. Should
be a mostly localized type of threat, given the spotty nature of
showers and storms, but something to keep an eye on. Look for temps
in the upper 80s and low 90s, with muggy lows mostly in the 70 to 75
degree range.

Monday - Thursday...

By the early to mid week timeframe, a shortwave will move from the
northern Plains through the Great Lakes region, dragging a surface
cold front closer to our area. Meanwhile, deep Gulf of Mexico and
even some Atlantic moisture will pool ahead of the approaching
trough, and on the western periphery of the mid Atlantic ridge. This
will set the stage for more widespread showers and storms sometime
in the later Monday through Tuesday timeframe. Will continue higher
pops for that period. Confidence lowers for the Wednesday-Thursday
timeframe, as some data pushes the front all the way through our
region, while other data hangs it up in our vicinity. Obviously,
either solution would have largely different impacts to our sensible
weather. For now, will hedge between the two with some chances for
showers and storms, and slightly cooler temps in the low to mid 80s.

The flooding threat will likely continue at least through Tuesday,
especially with any weekend rainfall priming soils for lower FFG
values by that time.

&&

.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 147 PM EDT Thu Aug 4 2022

Main aviation impact is expected to be waves of SHRA with occasional
TSRA this afternoon through Friday. A slow-moving wave of low
pressure and abundant moisture will result in numerous showers with
embedded thunderstorms this afternoon through the overnight hours.
Prevailing VFR ceilings are forecast, but dips to MVFR or IFR will
be possible in heavier showers and storms.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Flood Watch through Friday evening for INZ076>079-083-084-
     089>092.

KY...Flood Watch through Friday evening for KYZ023>043-045>048-053-
     054-061>063-070>072.

&&

Short Term...EBW
Long Term...BJS
Aviation...EBW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
351 PM EDT Thu Aug 4 2022

KYZ049-055>057-064>067-073>078-081-082-052000-
Clark-Boyle-Garrard-Madison-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-Allen-Barren-
Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Winchester, Danville, Lancaster, Richmond,
Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty, Stanford, Scottsville, Glasgow,
Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown, Burkesville,
and Albany
351 PM EDT Thu Aug 4 2022 /251 PM CDT Thu Aug 4 2022/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Isolated strong thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening. These storms could produce heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and
lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Thunderstorms will be possible Friday through the weekend and into
early next week. A few of the stronger storms could produce locally
heavy rainfall and gusty winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

GENERAL STORM MOTION OF THE DAY:

Thunderstorms today will move from the southwest to the northeast at
10 to 15 mph.

Any users of this storm motion must be aware that thunderstorm activity
can be erratic and constantly evolving.  Please use this with caution
and be prepared for changing conditions.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and
climate information can be found, at weather.gov/louisville.

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>048-053-054-061>063-
070>072-052000-
Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison-
Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-
Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-
Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Mercer-Jessamine-Larue-Marion-Butler-
Edmonson-Hart-Logan-Warren-Simpson-
Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, Jasper,
English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville, Lewisport,
Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Hartford, Leitchfield,
Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville, La Grange, Bedford,
Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort, Georgetown, Cynthiana,
Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Lexington, Paris, Carlisle,
Bardstown, Springfield, Harrodsburg, Nicholasville, Hodgenville,
Lebanon, Morgantown, Brownsville, Horse Cave, Russellville,
Bowling Green, Franklin, and Providence
351 PM EDT Thu Aug 4 2022 /251 PM CDT Thu Aug 4 2022/

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms producing heavy rainfall are likely at
times this evening and tonight. Excessive rainfall could result in
localized flash flooding. Some stronger storms could also produce
gusty winds and lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Thunderstorms will be possible Friday through the weekend and into
early next week. A few of the stronger storms could produce locally
heavy rainfall and gusty winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

GENERAL STORM MOTION OF THE DAY:

Thunderstorms today will move from the southwest to the northeast at
10 to 15 mph.

Any users of this storm motion must be aware that thunderstorm activity
can be erratic and constantly evolving.  Please use this with caution
and be prepared for changing conditions.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and
climate information can be found, at weather.gov/louisville.

EBW/BJS

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
321 PM CDT Thu Aug 4 2022

INZ089-KYZ023-042045-
Perry IN-Hancock KY-
321 PM CDT Thu Aug 4 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Perry
and northwestern Hancock Counties through 345 PM CDT...

At 321 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Grandview, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Hawesville around 330 PM CDT.
  Tell City around 335 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3793 8697 3794 8692 3799 8686 3800 8681
      3802 8680 3800 8677 3803 8677 3804 8679
      3806 8677 3808 8678 3810 8677 3811 8680
      3813 8680 3800 8658 3784 8685 3783 8690
      3784 8691 3788 8689 3790 8692 3789 8699
TIME...MOT...LOC 2021Z 225DEG 27KT 3793 8689

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JML

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