Severe Thunderstorm Warning 203, NWS Louisville, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
142 PM EDT Fri Jul 8 2022

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Short Term...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 330 AM EDT Fri Jul 8 2022

...Strong to Potentially Severe Storms Poss. Today...
...Dangerous High Heat and Humidity for Southwestern KY...

Synopsis: The combination of a weak surface low and upper-level
short-wave trough working across the Ohio Valley today and tonight
will provide another chance for showers and thunderstorms. Some of
these storms have the potential of being strong to severe with
strong damaging winds, frequent lightning and torrential downpours
being the main threat. Heat indices above 100 degrees across south-
central KY will also be possible later this afternoon due to high
heat and humidity.

Discussion: A developing MCV across northern MO/southern IA is
associated with a weak sfc low and upper level short-wave trough.
This complex of showers and thunderstorms will be in central IL at
the start of the forecast period. Latest runs of the Hi-Res CAMs
seem to be bringing the overall picture into better focus for later
today. With the main challenge remaining timing of storm development
and the amount of cloud cover across our area.

MCV will continue to push eastward from central IL into
central/northern IN through the morning. Convective debris from the
passing MCV and the northwest flow aloft could keep southern IN and
north-central KY under mostly cloudy skies through the morning into
the afternoon. This would reduce daytime heating and available
instability for parts of the area. Even with slightly reduced
instability as the weak sfc low/short-wave trough work across the
Ohio Valley during the afternoon/evening this will help to provide
enough lift to spark organized convection across southern IN and
central KY. The SPC has all of our CWA under a slight risk for
severe weather which looks reasonable given the setup. Model
sounding continue to show 1500-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE and 0-6km shear
values from 20-30kts. Given the backing wind profile all severe
modes are possible with the main threat being strong damaging winds
and the threat of an isolated tornado. The best chance for
shower/storm activity looks to be later this afternoon and evening
ahead of an approaching cold front. This will work from the
northwest to the southeast overnight into tomorrow morning.

Temperatures will remain challenging this afternoon given the
difficult nature of the cloud forecast. Current heat advisory across
the southwestern CWA looks good with no plans on changing as heat
indices once again top out to near/over 105 degrees. Where clouds do
lingers, especially across southern IN, north-central KY into the
Blue Grass afternoon highs may struggle to get out of the upper 80s.
As for overnight lows, it will remain mild with lows int he low 70s
to mid/upper 60s across southern IN.

&&

.Long Term...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 240 AM EDT Fri Jul 8 2022

The Long Term will start with the cold front near the Tennessee
border slipping southward over the course of the day. Deep moisture
will linger for about 200 miles behind (north of) the front, and
there will be enough instability for showers and a few storms,
especially in southern Kentucky. A weak 5H wave coming in from the
northwest will help to spark convection. Can't rule out a few strong
storms with gusty winds, especially near the Tennessee line.

Saturday night through Monday night look dry as high pressure slides
southeastward out of the Great Lakes. After weekend high
temperatures in the 80s, Monday we'll be back into the 90s as the
high moves off the East Coast and a cold front approaches from the
northwest.

Tuesday-Wednesday that cold front will gradually pass through the
region accompanied by scattered showers and storms. The way it looks
right now, we could see a few strong storms Tuesday afternoon and
evening, especially from southern Indiana into north central
Kentucky if the current timing holds. There has been a slight trend
to slow the fropa down a bit as it runs into increasing southeast
U.S./northwest Atlantic ridging. We'll then dry out by Thursday
behind the departing front.

Tuesday may be the most uncomfortable day of the Long Term with
highs in the 90s and humidity pooling ahead of the incoming front.

&&

.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 140 PM EDT FRI Jul 8 2022

Convective activity has been ongoing since the morning and will keep
increasing towards the evening, although there are still a few hours
of calm weather at HNB, SDF, and LEX. Expect reduced visibilities
along with lowering CIGS with the heaviest storms during the 08/21-
09/00Z time frame. Then, light rain and a trend of lowering ceilings
will begin with possible IFR VIS and CIGS at all terminals towards
sunrise. It is important to highlight the low confidence in the
forecast given model disagreement in the future evolution of the
convective elements among guidance.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KYZ026-027-061>063-
     070>076-081-082.

&&

Short Term...BTN
Long Term...13
Aviation...ALL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
351 AM EDT Fri Jul 8 2022

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>025-028>043-045>049-053>057-
064>067-077-078-090800-
Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison-
Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Hardin-Bullitt-Oldham-Trimble-
Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-Fayette-Bourbon-
Nicholas-Nelson-Mercer-Jessamine-Larue-Marion-Boyle-Garrard-Madison-
Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-Adair-Russell-
Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, Jasper,
English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville, Lewisport,
Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville,
Louisville, La Grange, Bedford, Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville,
Frankfort, Georgetown, Cynthiana, Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg,
Versailles, Lexington, Paris, Carlisle, Bardstown, Springfield,
Harrodsburg, Nicholasville, Winchester, Hodgenville, Lebanon,
Danville, Lancaster, Richmond, Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty,
Stanford, Columbia, and Jamestown
351 AM EDT Fri Jul 8 2022 /251 AM CDT Fri Jul 8 2022/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Scattered clusters of storms will be possible today. Some storms
will be strong to severe with gusty winds, frequent lightning, and
torrential downpours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Scattered storms are expected Saturday. The best chance for any
strong storms with gusty winds will be in southern Kentucky.

Scattered strong storms will be possible Tuesday afternoon and
evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

GENERAL STORM MOTION OF THE DAY:

Storms will move from west to east between 20-25 mph today.

Any users of this storm motion must be aware that thunderstorm activity
can be erratic and constantly evolving.  Please use this with caution
and be prepared for changing conditions.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and
climate information can be found, at weather.gov/louisville.

KYZ026-027-061>063-070>076-081-082-090800-
Ohio-Grayson-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-
Monroe-Metcalfe-Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Hartford, Leitchfield, Morgantown,
Brownsville, Horse Cave, Russellville, Bowling Green, Franklin,
Providence, Scottsville, Glasgow, Tompkinsville, Edmonton,
Burkesville, and Albany
251 AM CDT Fri Jul 8 2022

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Scattered clusters of storms will be possible today. Some storms
will be strong to severe with gusty winds, frequent lightning, and
torrential downpours.

Heat indices are once again likely to reach 105 degrees with the
combination of high heat and humidity.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Scattered storms are expected Saturday. The best chance for any
strong storms with gusty winds will be in southern Kentucky.

Scattered strong storms will be possible Tuesday afternoon and
evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

GENERAL STORM MOTION OF THE DAY:

Storms will move from west to east between 20-25 mph today.

Any users of this storm motion must be aware that thunderstorm activity
can be erratic and constantly evolving.  Please use this with caution
and be prepared for changing conditions.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and
climate information can be found, at weather.gov/louisville.

BTN/13

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