Severe Thunderstorm Warning 137, NWS Louisville, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
319 PM EDT Thu May 26 2022

.Short Term...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 310 PM EDT Thu May 26 2022

Across the region this afternoon, we have showers and thunderstorms
ongoing as deep southerly flow continues to pump moisture northward
from the Gulf of Mexico. The main wave of thunderstorms has formed
immediately in advance of a NNW-SSE oriented cold front, currently
located across southern IL, western KY, and western TN. As we head
through the afternoon and into the evening, this wave of storms will
move SSW to NNE across central Kentucky and southern Indiana,
clearing the area by 00-02Z tonight. Some of the storms may be
strong to severe, as modest destabilization has occurred in spite of
persistent clouds and showers this morning, with between 500-1000
J/kg MLCAPE presently observed across the area on latest SPC
mesoanalysis. Shear is favorable for sustained severe storms, as
greater than 40 kts effective shear will be present across the
region as the storms pass through. The main severe threats are
expected to be damaging wind gusts, although very isolated large
hail and tornadoes cannot be ruled out.

After the storms pass to the east, a few showers will linger into
the late evening before drier mid-level air briefly works its way in
following the passage of the surface cold/occluded front. This may
allow temporary breaks in the overcast overnight tonight, with
shower chances also expected to diminish greatly through sunrise
tomorrow. Low temperatures tonight will fall into the upper 50s and
lower 60s across the region.

Tomorrow, a stacked upper cyclone is progged to slowly track ENE-
ward along the Ohio River, with attendant low- and mid-level
moisture expected to bring additional cloud cover and spotty showers
throughout most of the day. Temperatures, thanks to the
aforementioned clouds, will be roughly 10 degrees below
climatological normals, only topping out in the upper 60s and lower
70s tomorrow afternoon. Additional precipitation amounts should be
light, with generally less than 0.25" expected. Instability should
be considerably lower tomorrow afternoon compared with this
afternoon, with nothing outside of an isolated rumble of thunder
expected.

&&

.Long Term...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 238 PM EDT Thu May 26 2022

Cooler conditions will start out for the weekend as the region
remains within a post-frontal regime, but summer heat will quickly
move into the area by early next week as upper level ridging builds
in from the west.

Highs on Saturday will likely only climb into the mid and upper 70s,
though by Sunday, surface high pressure will be situated over the
eastern CONUS and promote stronger southerly return flow and warmer
temps. A western CONUS trough will begin to deepen while ridging
over the eastern CONUS will amplify, with the core of the ridge
settling near the lower Ohio Valley. This will set the stage for
very warm temperatures (highs in the 90s) Memorial Day through
Wednesday of next week. This pattern will also feature dry
conditions as subsidence associated with the ridge suppresses
precipitation chances.

It's not until late Wednesday into Thursday that we see the pattern
break down as the western CONUS trough pushes eastward. At the
surface, a cold front will likely move into the region sometime
Thursday, and showers/storms will be possible with that. By Friday,
expect a return to more cooler conditions with dry weather to end
the week.

&&

.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 150 PM EDT Thu May 26 2022

IMPACTS: TS this afternoon with temporarily reduced VIS, gusty winds
possible during TS. MVFR/possible IFR CIGs tomorrow morning.

DISCUSSION: A line of thunderstorms associated with a cold front
will move across the area from SSW to NNE this afternoon and
evening. All forecast sites stand a reasonable chance of seeing
storms during this period, mainly during the 19Z-00Z time period.
Outside of the stronger storms, light to moderate rain showers will
continue, clearing between 27/02-04Z as dry air temporarily works
its way in. Winds could gust between 25-35 kt in TS, with higher
gusts possible in the strongest storms. Once showers and storms
clear later this evening, expect VFR conditions for part of the
overnight hours as dry air tries to move across the area. Categories
will likely deteriorate again tomorrow morning as additional low-
level moisture passes through the region, dropping CIGs into MVFR
and possibly IFR territory. HNB would have the greatest chance to
see IFR conditions, with the greatest threat being between 27/10-
14Z. Along with the low stratus, rain showers will return to the
forecast after 12Z tomorrow, continuing through the remainder of the
current forecast period.

CONFIDENCE: Low-medium on CIGs, Medium on TS timing, Low-medium on
VIS in TS, Medium-high on winds.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

Short Term...CSG
Long Term...DM
Aviation...CSG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
329 PM EDT Thu May 26 2022

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-271930-
Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison-
Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-
Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-
Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Mercer-Jessamine-Larue-Marion-Boyle-
Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-
Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-
Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, Jasper,
English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville, Lewisport,
Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Hartford, Leitchfield,
Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville, La Grange, Bedford,
Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort, Georgetown, Cynthiana,
Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Lexington, Paris, Carlisle,
Bardstown, Springfield, Harrodsburg, Nicholasville, Winchester,
Hodgenville, Lebanon, Danville, Lancaster, Richmond, Morgantown,
Brownsville, Horse Cave, Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty,
Stanford, Russellville, Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence,
Scottsville, Glasgow, Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown,
Burkesville, and Albany
329 PM EDT Thu May 26 2022 /229 PM CDT Thu May 26 2022/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon and evening
hours. A few storms may contain damaging winds, large hail, and an
isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. Heavy rain could result in
localized flooding in areas that see repeated rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

GENERAL STORM MOTION OF THE DAY:

Thunderstorms this afternoon and evening will move from south-
southwest to the north- northeast around 45 mph.

Any users of this storm motion must be aware that thunderstorm activity
can be erratic and constantly evolving.  Please use this with caution
and be prepared for changing conditions.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and
climate information can be found, at weather.gov/louisville.

CSG/DM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
428 PM EDT Thu May 26 2022

INZ076-077-262100-
Orange IN-Washington IN-
428 PM EDT Thu May 26 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Orange
and western Washington Counties through 500 PM EDT...

At 427 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles southeast of Paoli, moving north at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Salem around 445 PM EDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3878 8606 3876 8603 3877 8602 3876 8601
      3842 8624 3846 8639 3869 8637 3869 8631
      3873 8631 3874 8629 3877 8628 3878 8620
      3878 8618 3876 8614 3877 8610 3878 8610
TIME...MOT...LOC 2027Z 201DEG 39KT 3850 8632

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

CJP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
431 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0337 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 ESE COLUMBIA          37.09N 85.28W
05/26/2022                   ADAIR              KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN BLOCKING THE 52 MILE MARKER ON
            THE CUMBERLAND PARKWAY.

&&

BTN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
442 PM EDT Thu May 26 2022

KYZ037-042-043-262115-
Bourbon KY-Nicholas KY-Harrison KY-
442 PM EDT Thu May 26 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Bourbon,
northwestern Nicholas and eastern Harrison Counties through 515 PM
EDT...

At 442 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Paris, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Cynthiana around 455 PM EDT.
  Carlisle around 500 PM EDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3811 8419 3821 8437 3858 8426 3858 8421
      3855 8421 3855 8416 3852 8418 3850 8418
      3850 8416 3849 8417 3848 8415 3848 8413
      3846 8410 3844 8402 3843 8400 3842 8400
      3844 8398 3842 8395
TIME...MOT...LOC 2042Z 210DEG 37KT 3822 8425

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

BJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
446 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0346 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 S FREEDOM             36.89N 85.10W
05/26/2022                   RUSSELL            KY   911 CALL CENTER

            REPORTS OF POWER LINE DOWN AT THE STATE PARK
            ENTRANCE.

&&

BTN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
514 PM EDT Thu May 26 2022

INZ090-091-KYZ025-030-262145-
Floyd IN-Harrison IN-Jefferson KY-Meade KY-
514 PM EDT Thu May 26 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Harrison, south central Floyd, east central Meade and west central
Jefferson Counties through 545 PM EDT...

At 514 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Brandenburg, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
  Valley Station and Pleasure Ridge Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3812 8579 3800 8597 3800 8600 3799 8600
      3790 8613 3801 8622 3828 8602
TIME...MOT...LOC 2114Z 218DEG 30KT 3801 8612

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

CJP

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