High Wind Warning 1, NWS Louisville, KY

Clark County, IN, Jefferson County, IN, Adair County, KY, Anderson County, KY, Bourbon County, KY, Boyle County, KY, Bullitt County, KY, Casey County, KY, Clark County, KY, Clinton County, KY, Cumberland County, KY, Fayette County, KY, Franklin County, KY, Garrard County, KY, Green County, KY, Hardin County, KY, Harrison County, KY, Henry County, KY, Jefferson County, KY, Jessamine County, KY, Larue County, KY, Lincoln County, KY, Madison County, KY, Marion County, KY, Mercer County, KY, Metcalfe County, KY, Nelson County, KY, Nicholas County, KY, Oldham County, KY, Russell County, KY, Scott County, KY, Shelby County, KY, Spencer County, KY, Taylor County, KY, Trimble County, KY, Washington County, KY, Woodford County, KY

159 
WWUS73 KLMK 310504
NPWLMK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Louisville KY
104 AM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022

INZ079-092-KYZ028>035-038-039-045-046-053-054-064-065-076-310615-
/O.CAN.KLMK.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-220331T0600Z/
Jefferson-Clark-Hardin-Bullitt-Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-
Franklin-Spencer-Anderson-Nelson-Washington-Larue-Marion-Green-
Taylor-Metcalfe-
Including the cities of Madison, Jeffersonville, Elizabethtown, 
Shepherdsville, Louisville, La Grange, Bedford, Milton, 
New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort, Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg, 
Bardstown, Springfield, Hodgenville, Lebanon, Greensburg, 
Campbellsville, and Edmonton
104 AM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022 /1204 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2022/

...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The threat for gusty winds over 55 mph has ended, however some
gusty winds between 25 and 35 mph will be around overnight.

$$

KYZ036-037-040>043-047>049-055>057-066-067-077-078-081-082-310615-
/O.CON.KLMK.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-220331T0600Z/
Scott-Harrison-Woodford-Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Mercer-Jessamine-
Clark-Boyle-Garrard-Madison-Casey-Lincoln-Adair-Russell-
Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Georgetown, Cynthiana, Versailles, 
Lexington, Paris, Carlisle, Harrodsburg, Nicholasville, 
Winchester, Danville, Lancaster, Richmond, Liberty, Stanford, 
Columbia, Jamestown, Burkesville, and Albany
104 AM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022 /1204 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2022/

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/
EARLY THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...Brief period of wind gusts between 50 and 65 mph.

* WHERE...Southern Indiana and Central Kentucky east of I-65.

* WHEN...Until 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ tonight.

* IMPACTS...Large trees or limbs could be blown down and power
  outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle on east-west roads. Secure outdoor objects.

A High Wind Warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected
or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or gusts
of 58 mph or more can lead to property damage.

&&

$$

BJS

593 
WWUS73 KLMK 310555
NPWLMK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Louisville KY
155 AM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022

KYZ036-037-040>043-047>049-055>057-066-067-077-078-081-082-310700-
/O.EXP.KLMK.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-220331T0600Z/
Scott-Harrison-Woodford-Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Mercer-Jessamine-
Clark-Boyle-Garrard-Madison-Casey-Lincoln-Adair-Russell-
Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Georgetown, Cynthiana, Versailles, 
Lexington, Paris, Carlisle, Harrodsburg, Nicholasville, 
Winchester, Danville, Lancaster, Richmond, Liberty, Stanford, 
Columbia, Jamestown, Burkesville, and Albany
155 AM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022 /1255 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2022/

...HIGH WIND WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ EARLY
THIS MORNING...

The threat for gusts over 50 mph has ended, however gusts between
25 and 35 mph are still expected overnight.

$$

BJS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
914 PM EDT Wed Mar 30 2022

.Mesoscale Update...
Issued at 914 PM EST Wed Mar 30 2022

The more northern line segments that moved northeast across our west-
central KY and southwestern IN counties have weakened considerably.
We did receive two reports of power lines down in Ferdinand in
Dubois County IN from a bowing line segment. Lightning activity is
now basically absent from western KY/SW IN, with attention turning
to the stronger portion of the QLCS moving northeast from Middle TN.

There remains some concern for damaging wind gusts due to steeper
low-level lapse rates and dry air in south-central Kentucky. Most
recent observation from Bowling Green featured a 78 degree
temperature and a 48 degree dewpoint. However, the Logan County KY
Mesonet station has dropped several degrees to 69 in the leading
stratiform rain ahead of the main convective line. Given the very
marginal instability, quick cooling of the near-sfc layer could be
just enough to keep the strongest winds aloft. But will still need
to watch this line closely given the extreme winds in the LLJ.

Issued at 725 PM EST Wed Mar 30 2022

Very strong forcing for ascent noted ahead of the sfc cold front
just east of the Mississippi River, where a QLCS is advancing
eastward. The mid/upper level trough is pivoting northeastward over
MO/AR, with strong divergence just downstream. A 70-80 kt southerly
LLJ is developing over western TN/KY, and these winds quickly lift
northeast over central KY and southern IN this evening.

Given such strong forcing and at least a weakening QLCS pushing
through the region this evening, damaging winds are still very much
a concern due to downward momentum transfer of the intense LLJ.
Lightning activity has been decreasing along the northern portion of
the QLCS in western KY. Instability is expected to play a role as a
primary limiting factor to more widespread severe convection along
the QLCS. A large dewpoint gradient still exists across central KY
with values of 45-50 F west of I-65 and 40-45 F east of I-65. Low-
level moisture return will continue ahead of the line, and dewpoints
should push into the 50s prior to storm arrival. But instability
will remain meager at best, especially east of I-65 late this
evening. Current thinking is that the QLCS will continue to weaken
over central KY, but uncertainty remains on how rapidly that occurs.
But overall, this diminishing trend will result in a lower tornado
threat with time. Thus, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued
for southern Indiana and portions of central Kentucky. The watch
runs through 05z, and a downstream extension can be issued if the
line maintains itself longer than expected.

&&

.Short Term...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 350 PM EDT Wed Mar 30 2022

...GUSTY GRADIENT WINDS OF 45-50 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...
...LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED THIS EVENING...

=====================================
Near Term
Now Through 600 PM EDT
=====================================

*Bottom Line Up Front*
- Dry and windy conditions for the rest of the afternoon
- Southerly wind gusts of 45-50 mph possible
- Enhanced fire danger in eastern portions of the CWA

Afternoon satellite imagery reveals partly to mostly sunny skies
across the region.  Current surface temperatures are in the upper
70s to the lower 80s.  We've hit 84 at KSDF which breaks the
previous record set back in 1977 and 1895. As expected, good
atmospheric mixing has taken place as we've scoured out a bit of
moisture. dewpoints across the region bottomed out in the upper 30s,
but with the cloud cover and continued moisture advection, the
dewpoints have risen a few degrees over the past hour or so.
Moisture did mix out a bit better out across our western CWA as well
as dewpoints have fallen into the lower-mid 40s.  We still have a
decent dewpoint gradient out across far western KY where dewpoints
out toward Fulton county are near 60.

Currently surface winds remain out of the south with sustained
speeds of 20-25 mph with gusts in the 35-40 mph range.  So far, we
have had gusts in the upper 40 mph range across the KY Mesonet. We
still could see some sporadic 45-50+ mph gusts over the next few
hours.  However, as mid-high level clouds come into the region,
mixing will become more limited and wind gusts will likely remain
the 40s into the evening hours.

With the mix out occurring, we do have some lower RH values across
the region.  A few spots out across our eastern areas did drop below
25% which necessitated a Red Flag Warning for eastern areas.  RH
values are expected to increase a bit as we go through the
afternoon.  However, the combination of low RH, gusty winds, and low
10h fuels will lead to dangerous fire conditions across the region
through early evening.  Therefore, the Red Flag Warning will
continue.

Strong capping up near 700 hPa as evidenced on the 18Z ILN and OHX
special soundings looks to keep things dry through the early evening
hours.

=====================================
This Evening and Overnight
600 PM EDT Tonight to 600 AM Thursday
=====================================

*Bottom Line Up Front*

- Squall line expected to move into western KY this evening
- Best chances of strong to severe storms west of I-65
- Damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes main threats

Squall line out to the west continues to get better organized this
afternoon.  Thus far, lightning has been confined to points in AR
and points south.  Latest high res CAMs and ensemble guidances has
shown a slower progression of the squall line into the region.
Earlier thinking was that the squall line would enter our western
CWA near 00Z, but that may be a bit too fast given current trends
and current forecasts.

Severe threat remains quite elevated, especially across our western
CWA where we will have a high shear/low instability set up. Overall
trends continue to show the best combination of shear and available
instability remaining across western KY this evening and it may
develop a bit more eastward into our CWA.  In any case, storms out
to the west will pose a damaging wind and isolated tornado hazard
this evening.  Current high res and HREF guidance still does show
numerous 2-5km UH tracks over far western KY.  However, these tracks
really diminish as you approach the I-65 corridor.  This is likely
due to the lower moisture and instability expected in the I-65
corridor and points east.  Additionally, model soundings do show a
slightly backed surface wind profile across our western CWA this
evening. However, as the night wears on, those SE surface winds veer
back to the south with time which reduces the directional shear
component.  With the LLJ pushing into the region, any storms out to
our west should be able to tap into this and bring that higher
momentum air to the surface.  Thus, the SPC ENH risk area was pushed
a bit further to the north and east with the 1630Z issuance to
account for this.

Storms look to enter our CWA between 00-02Z and should progress
eastward toward the I-65 corridor by 04-05Z and into the I-75
corridor in the 06-07Z time frame. Overall confidence for severe
weather remains high in our western third of our forecast area.
However, confidence drops considerably as you get closer to the I-65
corridor for several reasons.  1. Later arrival of storms as the
atmosphere starts to stabilize.  2. Substantial uncertainty about
whether strong moisture advection ahead of the squall line will be
able to moisten the atmosphere enough to support deep convection
from I-65 and points east. 3. How quickly will the line deteriorate
given the progressively unfavorable environment.

Confidence in how well CAMs can handle the complex environment
remains uncertain, but given the strong shear and environmental wind
profiles, there remains a risk of damaging wind gusts with even
shallow convection that may be diminishing in strength as it heads
eastward into central KY overnight.  Surface cold front will be on
the heels of this convection and some additional showers may develop
right along the frontal interface late tonight.  So, we will plan to
keep high PoPs going for the overnight period.

For Thursday, we'll be in the post frontal flow and we'll get into
the dry slot for a time.  However, with steepening lapse rates due
to colder air coming in aloft, some scattered showers will be
possible in spots in the afternoon.  Highs will range from the low-
mid 50s over southern IN and central KY, with daily highs in the
upper 60s in the east, but temps falling throughout the day.

.Long Term...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 336 PM EDT Wed Mar 30 2022

Thursday night

An upper closed low, embedded in an upper trough, swings through
northern Indiana. This will provide southern Indiana and central
Kentucky with a chance for stratiform rainfall and drizzle. There is
still some variation in the models. The DGZ may or may not be
saturated. A lack of ice crystals would lead to more drizzle. In
reality, the region will probably see a little of both. Parts of
southern Indiana could even see a flurry mixed in for an hour or two
which would have zero impact on anything.

Friday

Temperatures begin the day near and just above freezing, but skies
clear throughout the day as high pressure and upper ridging advance
from the Ozarks into the Lower Ohio Valley. Anticyclonic flow around
the surface high keeps a northern component to the winds which will
limit highs to the upper 40s to mid 50s, but as the high passes
overnight, winds veer towards the south.

Saturday

WAA from the southern winds will help to lift temperatures from
previous days as they reach into the upper 50s to low 60s. A surface
low, associated with an upper trough, will drag a weak trailing cold
front towards the CWA. Clouds are expected to be thicker over
southern Indiana and thinner towards southern Kentucky. Afternoon
hours bring low rain chances (around 20% or less) to southern
Indiana and areas mainly north of the parkways in Kentucky. Any
light rainfall that does develop will move east of the CWA during
the first half of the night.

Sunday

Even with light northern winds in place, upper ridging and surface
high pressure will bring clear skies to the region, keeping
temperatures mostly in the 60s.

Monday - Wednesday

Upper flow becomes more zonal as a front, extending from a surface
low over the western Great Lakes, sets up along the Ohio River. The
front could stay north of the river across southern Indiana or sink
just south of the river. Either way, light precipitation is expected
near the front, but it could take some time for the lower levels to
saturate, so Monday will likely remain mostly dry.

A better chance of rain and possibly storms will arrive on Tuesday
as a digging shortwave strengthens an upper trough. This will result
in a strong surface low forming over Texas, before getting quickly
ejected towards the CWA. This will bring more widespread heavier
rain to the area. It's still early, so expect timing and details to
change as the event nears.

&&

.Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 720 PM EDT Wed Mar 30 2022

IMPACTS:
- Strong and gusty south winds through late evening
- Line of strong to marginally severe storms late evening to just
after midnight

DISCUSSION:

Strong southerly winds will continue well into the evening as a dry
column is allowing for very efficient mixing. Will keep prevailing
gusts generally in the 35 kt range, but more like 30 kt for HNB
where it's already clouding up ahead of the line.

Main convective line will bring brief IFR cig/vis in very heavy
rain, and while winds won't be much stronger than the pre-storm
gradient winds the direction will be erratic.  Will run the worst
conditions in 2-hr TEMPO groups, even though the strong storms are
unlikely to cover the whole TEMPO period, with SDF hitting in the 03-
05Z time frame. Main source of uncertainty is how well these storms
hold up as they push eastward toward LEX.

Storms exit to the east after midnight, or more like 07Z for LEX,
giving way to lighter rain showers and winds still gusting near 25
kt out of the SW.  Ceilings will initially be VFR, albeit just
barely, but will build down into MVFR and likely below 2000 feet for
a decent chunk of Thu morning. Look for improving ceilings and WSW
winds Thu afternoon, with gusts around 20-25 kt.

CONFIDENCE:

High on storms occurring, medium on exact impacts and timing.
High on winds.
Medium on ceilings Thursday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Wind Advisory until midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ tonight for
     INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

KY...Wind Advisory until midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ tonight for
     KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.

&&

Mesoscale...EBW
Short Term...MJ
Long Term....KDW
Aviation...RAS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
356 PM EDT Wed Mar 30 2022

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-312000-
Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison-
Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-
Bullitt-Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Spencer-Anderson-
Woodford-Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Mercer-Jessamine-Larue-
Marion-Boyle-Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-
Casey-Lincoln-Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-
Adair-Russell-Cumberland-Clinton-
356 PM EDT Wed Mar 30 2022 /256 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022/

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT /11 PM CDT/ TONIGHT...
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT...

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Gusty south winds will be seen across the outlook area this
afternoon. Sustained winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts of 45 to 50
mph will be possible prior to storms arriving later this evening.

Showers and embedded thunderstorms this evening and tonight could
be strong to severe, with damaging straight line winds and spin
up tornadoes possible. This line is expected to pass through the
region between the hours of 9 PM and 3 AM.

There is also an enhanced fire danger for locations east of I-65
Wednesday afternoon. The combination of strong winds, dry fuels, and
low relative humidity will make for difficult conditions to control
any outdoor burning. A Red Flag Warning has been posted until 800
PM EDT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is likely this evening. Spotters are also
encouraged to relay reports of measured wind speeds or any wind
damage during the day.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and
climate information can be found, at weather.gov/louisville.

MJ/KDW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
810 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022

KYZ070-310145-
Logan KY-
810 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of western Logan County
through 845 PM CDT...

At 809 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Pembroke to near Clarksville. Movement was
northeast at 60 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
  Russellville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
south central Kentucky.

&&

LAT...LON 3674 8706 3676 8705 3706 8705 3707 8697
      3706 8685 3683 8678 3664 8703 3664 8706
TIME...MOT...LOC 0109Z 220DEG 51KT 3678 8737 3654 8730

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CJP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
844 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022

KYZ061-070>073-310215-
Warren KY-Logan KY-Simpson KY-Allen KY-Butler KY-
844 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of central Logan,
Simpson, western Allen, southern Butler and Warren Counties through
915 PM CDT...

At 844 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 10 miles east of Dunmor to 7 miles east of
Russellville. Movement was northeast at 60 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Memphis Junction around 900 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of these storms include Crestmoor, Plum
Springs, Mount Victor and Bowling Green.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
south central Kentucky.

&&

LAT...LON 3665 8659 3665 8685 3708 8694 3709 8690
      3710 8690 3725 8644 3717 8640 3711 8632
      3664 8620 3665 8651 3663 8656
TIME...MOT...LOC 0144Z 246DEG 50KT 3704 8683 3682 8676

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CJP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1008 PM EDT WED MAR 30 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0952 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 NNW FORT KNOX         37.91N 85.97W
03/30/2022  M51 MPH          HARDIN             KY   OTHER FEDERAL

            GODMAN ARMY AIR FIELD.

&&

RAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1011 PM EDT WED MAR 30 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0935 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 3 WSW LEITCHFIELD       37.46N 86.34W
03/30/2022  M50 MPH          GRAYSON            KY   MESONET

            KENTUCKY MESONET.

&&

RAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1013 PM EDT WED MAR 30 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1005 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 2 WNW CECILIA           37.68N 85.98W
03/30/2022  M52 MPH          HARDIN             KY   MESONET

            KENTUCKY MESONET.

&&

RAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1019 PM EDT WED MAR 30 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0955 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 2 NE CECILIA            37.69N 85.92W
03/30/2022  M54 MPH          HARDIN             KY   AWOS

            ELIZABETHTOWN REGIONAL AIRPORT.

&&

RAS