Flash Flood Warning 41, NWS Louisville, KY

538 
WGUS73 KLMK 070126
FFSLMK

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
826 PM CDT Tue Sep 6 2022

KYC009-070136-
/O.EXP.KLMK.FF.W.0041.000000T0000Z-220907T0130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Barren KY-
826 PM CDT Tue Sep 6 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 830 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR 
EAST CENTRAL BARREN COUNTY...

Flood waters have receded. The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no 
longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to heed remaining 
road closures.

LAT...LON 3689 8574 3689 8578 3695 8589 3701 8584
      3698 8575

$$

ALL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
316 PM EDT Tue Sep 6 2022

.Short Term...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 310 PM EDT Tue Sep 6 2022

Current radar imagery shows isolated to widely scattered showers and
storms are popping up across the region, with the main area of
showers and storms sinking southward through north-central KY. This
is in association with a compact mid-level low/vort max that is
slowly progressing ESE through western OH. Hi-res guidance indicates
PWATs are generally in the 1.4 - 1.6 inch range, with an enhanced
swath of moisture to 1.8 inches across north-central KY along a slow-
moving frontal boundary. With MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg and weak
Effective Shear, expect brief heavy rainfall and localized flooding
issues to be the main threat with storms, especially in areas that
see repeat rounds of rainfall.

As the vort lobe shifts off to the east this evening and the frontal
boundary pushes to the south, expect precip chances to taper off
leading to dry conditions overnight. Will have another chance for
fog and low stratus to develop late tonight into tomorrow morning,
although as drier air begins to filter in from the north, greatest
chances will likely remain across south- and east-central KY.
Tomorrow is then expected to be mostly dry with high temperatures
topping out in the lower 80s.

&&

.Long Term...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 310 PM EDT Tue Sep 6 2022

The long term period will begin with multiple features of interest
across the North American region. Over the United States, an
elongated positively-tilted trough will be stretching from the Deep
South to the Great Lakes. To the west, a large dome of high pressure
will be centered over the Four Corners region with ridging tilting
to the NE into the High Plains. In the Eastern Pacific, Hurricane
Katy will be nearing the Baja Coast, capable of producing tropical
storm force winds. In the Atlantic, Tropical Storm Earl will likely
be strengthening to a Hurricane as it turns to the NE and away from
the US East Coast.

By Wednesday evening, the aforementioned elongated upper trough will
be sliding east of our area, allowing for deep northerly flow to
reintroduce drier air into the Ohio Valley. When doing so, a large
upper low will spin off from the shortwave over the Deep South by
Thursday morning. Dry weather is expected for Thursday as a sfc high
moves across the Ohio Valley. Should be a fairly nice day, with
temps in the low 80s and mostly sunny skies.

Precip chances return for Friday and certainly into the weekend as
we likely receive the greatest Gulf moisture fetch we've seen in
quite a while. The synoptic setup into the weekend will feature a
favorable environment similar to a PRE (Predecessor Rainfall Event)
scenario. Though there will be no tropical cyclone present in the
Gulf, other forcing mechanisms should be present to support heavy
rainfall. With the cut off low remaining over the mouth of the
Mississippi, deep ridging will begin to amplify east of the Ohio
Valley. With a strong ridge to our east, and a longwave trough
upstream from the Ohio Valley, an upper jet will be squeezed between
the two features and located over our area. At the sfc, a strong
cold front will be cutting through the Midwest, and will be
approaching the region by Sunday. With strong theta-e ridging into
the Ohio Valley, we could see PWATs approach the 1.7-2.0 inch range
by Sunday, which would be nearly 150% above normal for this time of
year in our area. Our greatest PoPs will be Saturday and Sunday.
With being several days out, it's a bit early to start getting into
expected QPF.

The cold front boundary will eventually pass through by Monday
morning, and we'll see wind shift from SW to NW. With cool post-
frontal flow in place, temps to start out next week will remain in
the upper 70s.

&&

.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 155 PM EDT Tue Sep 6 2022

Ceilings have continued to gradually improve this afternoon, with
all sites expected to return to VFR over the next couple of hours.
Widely scattered showers along with a few embedded thunderstorms
have developed across the region, with brief periods of
thunderstorms possible at each of the sites this afternoon and
evening. Reductions in ceiling and visibility will be possible in
the strongest cells.

Fog and low stratus will be possible again overnight into Wednesday
morning, mainly across south- and east-central KY.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

Short Term...JML
Long Term...CJP
Aviation...JML

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
333 PM EDT Tue Sep 6 2022

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-071945-
Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison-
Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-
Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-
Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Mercer-Jessamine-Larue-Marion-Boyle-
Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-
Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-
Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, Jasper,
English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville, Lewisport,
Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Hartford, Leitchfield,
Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville, La Grange, Bedford,
Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort, Georgetown, Cynthiana,
Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Lexington, Paris, Carlisle,
Bardstown, Springfield, Harrodsburg, Nicholasville, Winchester,
Hodgenville, Lebanon, Danville, Lancaster, Richmond, Morgantown,
Brownsville, Horse Cave, Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty,
Stanford, Russellville, Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence,
Scottsville, Glasgow, Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown,
Burkesville, and Albany
333 PM EDT Tue Sep 6 2022 /233 PM CDT Tue Sep 6 2022/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through this
evening. Some of the storms will be capable of heavy rainfall.
Localized flooding will be possible where repeated showers or storms
occur.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Rain showers and thunderstorms will be possible for the end of the
week and into the weekend, especially in the afternoon and evening
hours. Heavy rainfall may lead to localized flooding, especially in
areas that are repeatedly affected by thunderstorms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated today.

GENERAL STORM MOTION OF THE DAY:

Storms will move from the northwest to the southeast around 10 to 15
mph.

Any users of this storm motion must be aware that thunderstorm activity
can be erratic and constantly evolving.  Please use this with caution
and be prepared for changing conditions.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and
climate information can be found, at weather.gov/louisville.

JML/CJP