Severe Thunderstorm Warning 7, NWS Elko, NV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
147 PM PDT Tue Jul 19 2022

.SYNOPSIS...Active monsoon pattern continues to impact central and
northeast Nevada today with showers and thunderstorms which will
have the potential to produce moderate to heavy downpours, along
with strong downdraft and outflow winds. Drier across northwestern
Nevada where isolated dry thunderstorms are favored today.
Slightly cooler with highs in the upper 80s to 90s. Thunderstorm
activity weakens and shifts eastward Wednesday and Thursday with
isolated storms mainly centered over White Pine County and eastern
Elko County. Warming back up as well with highs in the 90s to low
100s

&&

.SHORT TERM...This afternoon through Wednesday night...Active
monsoonal pattern today with ample showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon and continuing through this evening. A bit more
coverage and intensity of convection in central/northeast NV as
PWAT values nudge closer to an inch and instability a bit higher
than yesterday. In addition, will see better forcing as well as
subtle wave and slight PV anomaly rotates around the four corners
high through northern and eastern NV. Better potential for wet
storm modes with some heavier downpours expected. WPC again has
much of the region in Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall, with
burn scars and other sensitive canyons and washes most at risk for
localized flash flooding. Back towards Humboldt county, will see
drier conditions and less potential for mainly showers and storms,
mainly on the dry side. DCAPE values today across most of the CWA
will be > 800J/kg, suggesting gusty downdraft winds are possible
with any stronger showers and storms, along with blowing dust.
Slightly cooler temps expected due to increase in moisture and
cloud cover with highs generally in the upper 80s to mid 90s
(upper 90s in Humboldt county). Warmer nighttime temps as well
with lows generally in the 60s (70s southeast Elko county). Drier
air pushes in from the west on Wednesday which should limit
showers and thunderstorms to eastern Elko County down towards
east-central NV and most of the activity on the drier side. Gusty
downdraft winds will still be possible. Hotter temps expected
with highs generally in the 90s. Overnight lows again in the 60s
for most locales (low to mid 70s southeast Elko county).

.LONG TERM...Thursday to next Tuesday

The dominant Desert Southwest ridge will continue to bring isolated
wet and dry thunderstorms to areas of White Pine and eastern Elko
counties Thursday afternoon and evening.  Elsewhere, dry conditions
are expected through the beginning of next week. A low pressure
system off the coast of California will bring breezy west to
southwest winds to Humboldt and parts of Elko counties late this
week. High temperatures will decrease into the low to mid-90s
throughout into the beginning of next week across northern and
central Nevada. There are indication of a return to thunderstorm
activity during the middle of next week in White Pine and
northern Nye counties but confidence of its occurrence is low at
this time.

&&

.AVIATION...Some light shower activity is possible during the
morning hours, though some clearing is expected late morning. This
will aid in thunderstorms developing across central Nevada. Best
chances will be across KELY and KTPH, though VCTS likely at KEKO.
Convective and erratic wind gusts to 40KT are possible at the
above sites as well. Winds will be breezy at KWMC and KBAM, but
much uncertainty exists in direction and speed due to outflow
boundaries and subsequent wind shifts. BLDU is also possible at
KTPH, but forecast confidence is too low to include in forecast.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...More showers and storms expected today across
central and northeast Nevada. Activity looks to be a bit wetter as
precipitable water values nudge close to 1 inch, but still expect
gusty erratic winds and cloud to ground lightning that will
result in an elevated fire risk. Drier, more isolated storms
expected back towards zones 437 and 438 and northern portions of
424 and 438. Trending warmer and drier Wednesday into Thursday as
moisture gets shunted further south and east, but potential
remains for isolated storms, mainly dry, across east-central and
northeast NV.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Expect showers and thunderstorms across much of the
region today. Precipitable water values hovering around an inch
hint at wetter storms than previous days. In addition storm
motions look to be a bit slower and some convection could anchor
onto the higher terrain and bring prolonged heavy downpours before
dissipating. Therefore, the WPC has much of the region under a
Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall today, with burn scars and
other sensitive canyons and washes most at risk of localized flash
flooding. Drier air pushing in from the west tomorrow will limit
coverage of showers/storms to eastern Elko county down towards
east- central NV. Activity also looks to be on the drier side as
Pwat values decrease, but some heavier downpours still possible,
especially higher terrain in White Pine county.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.

&&

87/89/89/87/87

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