Severe Thunderstorm Warning 6, NWS Elko, NV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
114 PM PDT Fri Jul 15 2022

.SYNOPSIS...Showers and thunderstorms will continue in central and
eastern Nevada. Strong storms with moderate to heavy rain remains
possible into the evening. Drier conditions and a lesser coverage of
isolated thunderstorms are expected on Saturday. Above normal
temperatures will continue across the silver state.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday.

A four corners high continues to stream monsoonal moisture across
the region causing thunderstorms in the silver state through the
weekend. The thunderstorms for the rest of today can be strong and
cause heavy rainfall. Flash flooding is a concern for today, see
the hydrology section for more details. The moisture will diminish
for Saturday restricting thunderstorm coverage to isolated and
confining it to central NV. The lesser moisture will make these
thunderstorms a mix of more dry than wet. Sunday still looks like
more moisture will intrude back across the silver state leading to
scattered thunderstorms in central and eastern NV. The increased
moisture will make the mix of thunderstorms more wet than dry.
Strong winds will be possible from any of the thunderstorms for
the next few days. Temperatures will be hot and warming slightly
with highs in the 90s to 100s.

.LONG TERM...Sunday through next Friday…

The four corners high will continue to persist thru most of the
long term period. This will pull monsoonal moisture north and into
the Great Basin with better moisture profiles thru central and
eastern portions of the CWA. Isolated thunderstorms will be in the
forecast each afternoon for these areas with generally a mix of
wet and dry storms. However White Pine County and surrounding
areas stand to see storms on the wetter side. Beyond Tuesday an
upper wave is indicated to move into the Pac NW on a SW to NE
trajectory. This would displace moisture to the east and out of
the CWA, with weather subsequently becoming much less active. Any
thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday afternoons would be relegated
to White Pine County with dry storms situated mostly over the
high terrain. Afternoon winds look to be generally breezy in the
afternoons with gusts in the 20-30 mph range from the SW.
Temperature will be a few degrees cooler than recent, yet remain
slightly warmer than average.

Guidance hints at a more robust Pacific wave moving into the
western U.S. from the west in the Friday time frame which may
bring dynamically driven weather, primarily strong southerly
winds. The wave will also work to push the four corners high east
and into the southern plains, likely cooling temperatures further
and bringing them at least back to near average for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected at KWMC and KBAM through
the next 24 hours. KTPH, KELY and KEKO will see periods of MVFR
conditions as showers and thunderstorms move through eastern and
central Nevada this afternoon and evening. Strong and erratic
outflow winds are expected in and near any thunderstorms with
occasional lightning and potential heavy rain. Southwesterly
gradient winds will also continue to be breezy this afternoon and
evening with gusts around 25 kts before subsiding overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Wet thunderstorms will continue into the evening
impacting mainly zones 425, 426, 427, and 470. For zones 425, 426,
and 427 long duration, heavy, or training thunderstorm can produce
flooding which has the highest odds of occurring over burn scars or
other high run off areas. Saturday the moisture backs off with
isolated dry to wet thunderstorms for 425, 426,and 427. Sunday is
looking favorable for another push of moisture with more wet thunder
in central and eastern NV. NW NV including 437 and portions of 438
and 424 remains outside the monsoonal moisture and will be dry. Zone
437 will be gusty and dry for Sunday but this looks to remain below
critical thresholds.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Today will see areas of slow moving wet
thunderstorms primarily in northern Nye, White Pine, southern Lander
and Eureka, and southeastern Elko Counties. The areas with the
highest threat is NE Nye and White Pine Counties with a Flash
Flood Watch in effect from 2 pm to 11 pm Friday. These
thunderstorms can produce heavy rainfall over a long duration
which can lead to flash flooding. The odds will increase in
stepper terrain of the mountains and in areas with high runoff
such as rocky areas. Additionally fire burn scars can lead to
higher than normal runoff increasing the chances for flash
flooding in these areas. The risk for flash flooding can extend
far away from the thunderstorms as water flows in drainages, dry
washes, and dry creek beds. Flood water can contain contain
dangerous debris and sweep away vehicles and people. If flooding
is encountered turn around and don't drown as roads can easily
wash out.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 11 PM PDT this evening for Northeastern
Nye County-White Pine County.

&&

99/92/92/99

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