Severe Thunderstorm Warning 22, NWS Elko, NV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
211 PM PDT Wed Sep 14 2022

.SYNOPSIS...Widespread subtropical moisture lingering over the
Great Basin will bring additional showers and thunderstorms today
through early tonight. Some thunderstorms could contain heavy
rainfall and isolated flash flooding. Lesser chances for rain
exist through the weekend mainly across northern Nevada. A
stronger storm system is expected to move through the region early
next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...This afternoon through Thursday night

Ample subtropical moisture remains present in central and eastern
Nevada which will bring another round of showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon into the early nighttime hours
triggered by a continued stream of shortwaves moving through the
longwave trof in the West. The strongest storms will bring heavy
rain which could lead to isolated flash flooding and therefore the
Flood Watch remains in effect for all except Humboldt County
through tonight. Small hail is also possible with the stronger
storms. Winds will in general be fairly light except some
thunderstorms could produce stronger gusty winds. Skies will be
hazy to smokey, especially in western Nevada closer to the smoke
from the fires in California. Highs will be in the 60's and 70's
today and lows will mainly be in the 40's and 50's tonight.

Patchy fog is possible in the early morning hours on Thursday, but
is not expected to be widespread and will be limited to areas that
are able to clear out some. Showers and thunderstorms will
develop again on Thursday and coverage looks to be extended a
little further westward then originally thought, though best
chance for wetting rains will remain in eastern Nevada.
Thunderstorm coverage overall will not be as widespread and storms
not as strong, and therefore the flash flooding threat will be on
the decrease. Highs will continue to be in the 60's and 70's with
lows mainly in the 40's and 50's.

.LONG TERM...Friday through next Wednesday.

Active weather looks to continue for the forecast period with
model agreement seeing Friday catch the remnants of this mid-week
system. Latest from guidance still expects showers to exit with
last of the system and best chances of rainfall settled along the
Northern Nevada border. For the weekend, activity looks to press
on as models see a new trough descend into the Pacific Northwest
Friday night before digging south Saturday down the West Coast.
With the descent of the trough and its closed low, latest runs
expect enough instability and moisture to create showers for
northern and parts of eastern Nevada that afternoon. Heading into
Sunday, conditions look a bit drier for the region as the closed
upper-level low descends down to the California Coast. However,
activity will look to continue in the form of winds thanks to a
good southerly flow and a mild upper-level jet streak. Look for
the strongest winds to settle in south-central Nevada alongside
White Pine county for the afternoon.

As for Monday, model agreement expects the low and its frontal
system to make landfall creating yet another day of active
weather. Ahead of the front, look for a secondary jet streak to
aid in stronger winds with the strongest winds expected to focus
around South-Central Nevada that afternoon. Behind the front
chances for showers do look possible. However, latest guidance has
been very limiting compared to yesterdays outlook with best
chances situated along Eastern Nevada Monday night. Snow could
still be present for the overnight, but expect it to be limited to
mountain peaks. By Tuesday, model agreement begins to break down
with latest GFS runs quick to have the trough exit and replaced
with the ridge by the mid-week. Meanwhile, the ECMWF is more
geared towards a longer stay by the trough and frontal boundary.
For now, latest guidance prefers to lean more towards the GFS
outlook with drier conditions currently expected for the Sliver
State.

Temperature wise, seasonable temperatures are expected to hold on
for the end of the week with afternoon high staying in the 70s to
80s through Saturday. However, expect temperatures to cool off
behind the frontal system Monday with highs expected to drop into
60s to low 70s clear through Wednesday. Overnight temperatures
will look to cool off as well, with low temperatures dropping
from the high 40s clear into the mid to upper 30s by next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Active weather will look to be present at all
terminals today with chances of showers and thunderstorms at or
within the vicinity of each terminal. Latest from the high
resolution models has potential for these storms to produce heavy
rain that could reduce visibility. Combined with lower ceilings,
potential for brief MVFR and IFR conditions can occur with best
chances currently hanging around KELY and KEKO for the day.
Currently, latest radar and satellite has already begun to see
development, but expect higher chances of impact to the terminals
to be closer to the evening hours. Conditions do look to dry out
in the overnight with most terminals returning to VFR conditions
with some high cloud decks. Look for showers to return once again
Thursday afternoon with potential for impacts at all terminals.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Elevated humidity with good overnight recoveries
along with showers and thunderstorms will continue today and
Thursday across central and northeastern Nevada although much of
western Humboldt county could remain dry. This will limit fire
weather concerns for the next few days. Western Humboldt county
will be a drier exception but general winds will remain light and
primarily terrain/diurnally driven.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Ample subtropical moisture from the remnants of
tropical storm Kay will result in additional showers and
thunderstorms across much of central and northeastern Nevada
today. With anomalously high atmospheric moisture across the
region the threat of heavy rainfall and flash flooding continues
through tonight. Storm motions will be a bit higher today limiting
residence time but a better convective environment with more
instability could result in higher rain rates with individual
cells. The flash flood watch continues through tonight.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through late tonight for Northeastern Nye County-
Northern Elko County-Northern Lander County and Northern Eureka
County-Northwestern Nye County-Ruby Mountains and East Humboldt
Range-South Central Elko County-Southeastern Elko County-
Southern Lander County and Southern Eureka County-Southwest Elko
County-White Pine County.

&&

90/94/94/90

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