Flash Flood Warning 11, NWS Elko, NV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
120 PM PDT Sat Aug 13 2022

.SYNOPSIS...Active weather pattern to continue into the next as
monsoonal moisture is drawn into the Silver State. Coverage and
activity looks to wane for Sunday and the first part of next week
before intensifying again for the late-week period.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday night

A very similar setup to yesterday is expected today with respect
to storms, once again there will be a sharp east to west gradient
today with respect to storm chances. A sharp theta-E gradient sits
near and along the Lander/Eureka county line. Although not
exactly co-located, are strong gradients of PWAT values, and
surface dew points. This quasi-dry-line feature is also
highlighted in this mornings wind field with W-SW winds in
Humboldt and Lander Counties, and SE-E winds in eastern NV. To the
west drier air has filtered into the area, with surface dew
points in the 20s, RH values in the single digits, and PWAT values
of less than 0.4” nearly eliminating any probability of
convection as well as elevating fire weather concerns. To the east
of that boundary PWAT values of 0.75” or greater exist and dew
points are in the 50s. Storm motion will still be rather slow to
erratic given weak steering southwesterly flow aloft over the
region, and with that a localized flash flooding threat exists
again with the stronger cells that do form. The main questions for
the day given this setup is how far east will this dry-line push,
and if/how fast dry air aloft over western NV will mix eastward.
Models are split as to possible solutions to these questions which
will have a big impact on possible thunderstorm development today
especially for W and SW Elko County. Sunday looks to be one of
the more quieter days with regards to thunderstorm chances as the
better monsoon moisture looks to be pushed into UT. But a few
isolated storms will still be possible along the UT NV border. As
for winds and temperatures, look for highs in the middle 80s to
mid 90s today and Sunday, with light S to SW winds of 5 to 10 MPH.
The only areas to watch will be Humboldt and western parts of
Lander county give the warm and dry conditions, it is also likely
to see the strongest winds outside of any convection as W-SW of 15
to 25 MPH are expected with the strong heating.

.LONG TERM...Monday through next Friday. Models are trying to show
an upper level ridge circulation trying to develop over northern
Nevada beginning on Monday, with a weak upper trough out to the
west in the eastern Pacific. Convective activity is expected to be
limited for those areas south of the I-80 corridor. Highs on
Monday will be in the 80s and 90s. Quiet weather is expected
during the overnight with lows in the 50s and 60s.

The ridge is expected to shift slightly to the east with troughing
evident over Arizona and southern Nevada by Tuesday. Another round
of convective activity is anticipated across central Nevada, but
the return flow of the upper ridge may bring moisture around the
western periphery of the ridge. Have kept pops low across north-
central Nevada at this time. Otherwise, temperatures will
continue to remain in the 80s and 90s with the warmest
temperatures seen in the northern sections. Light showers are
possible in portions of Humboldt county during the overnight with
lows in the 50s and 60s.

Wednesday through Friday, the upper ridge will maintain a position
somewhat east of the area. This will keep a slow moisture seep
over the forecast area, leading to gradual increases in
thunderstorm activity northward. Afternoon highs will continue to
be in the 80s and 90s with overnight lows in the 50s and 60s.
Winds will remain on the light side.

&&

.AVIATION...Showers and thunderstorms are possible at the KEKO and
KELY terminals this evening. KBAM and KWMC will remain storm free
once again. Winds will remain light at less than 20KT. Look for
convective activity tomorrow afternoon across KEKO-KELY-KTPH with
sunny conditions for KWMC and KBAM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Very dry air and elevated fire weather concerns
have settled back into Humboldt and NW Lander counties. Expect
single digit RH values across zones 437 and 424 with west to
southwest winds in the range of 10 to 20 kt. Otherwise, no
significant fire weather concerns for the next several days across
other zones with general winds remaining light and chances for
showers and thunderstorms continuing.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

98/86/86/98

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