Wind Advisory 11, NWS New Orleans, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1247 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022

VFR conditions are expected at all terminals through the forecast
period. Northeasterly winds sustained at 15-20 knots will be
strongest during the daytime hours gusting to near 30 knots. Low
level wind shear up to 40 knots possible around 500 feet along the
I-12 corridor during the overnight hours tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 413 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022
Much more pleasant temperatures (at least relatively speaking)
have arrived as the advertised cold front has moved offshore into
the coastal waters. Hurricane Ian's forecast still looks to be on
track on moving to Florida, but we will still have a few fringe
effects from Hurricane Ian. Some breezy winds 10 to 15 mph with
gusts up to 25 mph are possible, especially areas closer to the
coast, as the front pushes up against Ian. Otherwise will be a
fairly benign pattern with dry conditions expected.

Unfortunately, the dry conditions also bring up fire weather
concerns as RH values could reach to around 25% along with the breezy
winds. We are also watching the potential for tomorrow. A red
flag warning was issued for today in coordination with our state
fire weather officials to highlight this concern and we will
monitor to see if the current watch on Wednesday would need to be
upgraded.

Jumping out a little outside of short term, but for coastal
flooding concerns later this week, there is an extremely narrow
and conditional situation where there could have some issues crop
up on eastern facing shores. The P-ETSS has an extremely large
spread in terms of wave heights of 2+ feet in which the high end
solution is Ian turns in just the right way that we get easterly
to southeasterly winds which could cause some piling up of water.
On the low end is we continue to have northeasterly winds which
would instead push the water away giving us the low end of the
ensemble spread. -BL

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday and Beyond)...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 413 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022

Ian should be slowed and near or inland along the Florida coast
by Thursday. This will keep a stacked northerly flow over the area
which will continuously bring dry dew pts in through the weekend
as the system lifts northward. The reinforcing dry air in a deep
layer will help keep the area with little to no mention of rain
which will continue to cause easily ignitable conditions but wind
speeds will have relaxed quite a bit by the end of the week that
ROS numbers will come down. There is a slight chance for some of
the wet stuff by the start to middle of next week but this may be
very low or non-existent. It will be getting into October, our
driest time of the year outside any tropical activity so its more
likely that high percentages of rainfall will be kept off the
table for now.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 413 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022
Due to a tight pressure gradient between the cold front currently
moving through the coastal waters along with Hurricane Ian to our
east will increase the winds in the coastal waters. Small craft
advisory was extended through Wednesday evening with potential for
a further extension still on the table. While it really was on the
cusp, the current forecast does not quite support Gale Warning (34
Main concerns are strong winds out of the northeast at 20 to 25
knots with gusts in excess of 30 to 35 knots. In addition, swells
will be a concern due to Hurricane Ian especially in the open Gulf
east of the mouth of the Mississippi River. -BL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  79  53  78  47 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  83  55  83  50 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  84  53  82  48 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  83  63  82  58 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  84  55  82  51 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  83  51  81  48 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ034>037-039-
     046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.

     Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ530-534.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for GMZ532-536-
     538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 6 PM CDT Thursday for
     GMZ532-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ068>071-077-
     080>082.

     Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening for MSZ068>071-077-080>082.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ534.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for GMZ536-538-
     550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 6 PM CDT Thursday for
     GMZ536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

SHORT TERM...
AVIATION...TJS