Severe Thunderstorm Warning 87, NWS New Orleans, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
Issued by National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
339 PM CDT Mon Aug 1 2022

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday)...

Deep moisture has moved into place across the area, this mornings
12Z upper air sounding measures PWATs at 2.20 inches. The moist
air mass is expected to remain positioned over the area through
the short term period. Each day, rounds of showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop as the sea breezes move
inland in the afternoon and into the evening. Scattered to
numerous showers and storms are expected each day, starting over
the coastal waters first and moving north across the forecast
area. Light onshore winds will result in slow storm motion, which
will make heavy rainfall the main threat. The Weather Prediction
Center has issued a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall for our
local area today, Tuesday, and Wednesday. This means that
heavy rainfall could lead to localized flooding. Strong wind gusts
and frequent lightning strikes will also be possible in
thunderstorms each day.

During the overnight periods, light winds, dry weather, and
mostly clear to partly cloudy skies may allow patchy fog to
develop. The best chances for fog development will be north of the
I-10 and I-12 corridors where the least cloud cover is expected.
Fog development will be possible from late night into the early
morning hours, and should burn off shortly after sunrise.

High temperatures will be in the upper 80s and lower 90s each day
with the hottest temperatures further inland. Low temperatures
will be in the 70s, ranging from the lower 70s inland to the upper
70s near the coast. Peak afternoon heat indices are expected to
reach 100-104 degrees, remaining below Heat Advisory Criteria.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Sunday)...

Models show deep moisture remaining in place over the area through
at least Friday, then it's possible we may see slightly drier air
filter over the region this weekend. The break will be brief with
deep moisture expected to surge back into the area early next
week. The environment will support numerous (65-85% PoP) showers
and storms Thursday and Friday, then scattered to low-end
numerous (50-70% PoP) showers and storms Saturday and Sunday. High
precipitation chances will likely continue early next week as deep
moisture returns. The main weather hazard through the long term
will be heavy rainfall and flooding. Heavy rain will be falling on
already saturated ground, so it will be easier for storms to
cause flooding late in the week.

High temperatures through the long term period will continue to be
in the upper 80s and lower 90s with heat indices generally in the
100-105 degree range. Low temperatures will be in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will bring temporary periods
of restrictions to the TAF sites through this afternoon and into
this evening, with the best chances for restrictions at sites
west of Slidell. Thunderstorm activity will taper off after
sunset, then lingering debris clouds and VFR conditions expected
overnight. Winds will be variable in and around storms, then
light southerly winds will prevail overnight. There could be some
patchy fog near KMCB and KBTR late tonight/early Tuesday
morning. Another round of afternoon and evening thunderstorms is
expected on Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...

No marine hazards are expected this week other than locally
increased winds and seas in thunderstorms each day. High pressure
will remain positioned over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico
through Friday. Flow around the high will continue onshore winds
through this week. Winds will be generally 5-10 kts with seas 2-4
ft. High pressure will weaken this weekend as the high pressure
ridge shifts slightly north and east.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  71  90  71  89 /  20  70  30  70
BTR  74  92  74  91 /  20  70  30  80
ASD  75  91  74  91 /  30  80  30  80
MSY  78  90  77  90 /  30  80  30  80
GPT  76  89  76  89 /  30  80  40  80
PQL  76  90  75  89 /  40  80  40  80

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
Issued by National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
332 PM CDT Mon Aug 1 2022

LAZ039-079>081-012115-
Washington LA-Central Tangipahoa LA-Northern St. Tammany LA-
Southwestern St. Tammany LA-
332 PM CDT Mon Aug 1 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northwestern St.
Tammany, southeastern Tangipahoa and south central Washington
Parishes through 415 PM CDT...

At 332 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Folsom to near Covington. Movement was
northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Covington, Abita Springs, Folsom and Enon.

This includes Interstate 12 between mile markers 56 and 64.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3078 9004 3044 8988 3042 9017 3062 9030
TIME...MOT...LOC 2032Z 246DEG 14KT 3059 9023 3047 9015

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

ENYEDI

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
Issued by National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
334 PM CDT Mon Aug 1 2022

MSZ070-071-012115-
Pike MS-Walthall MS-
334 PM CDT Mon Aug 1 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northwestern Walthall
and eastern Pike Counties through 415 PM CDT...

At 333 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 8 miles south of Ruth to 8 miles east of
Magnolia. Movement was northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Tylertown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3110 9013 3102 9037 3135 9036 3135 9015
TIME...MOT...LOC 2033Z 232DEG 11KT 3125 9030 3112 9032

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

ENYEDI

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