Severe Thunderstorm Warning 55, NWS New Orleans, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
333 PM CDT Sun May 15 2022

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday)...

Troughiness extending from the NE Conus hangs into the NE Gulf
with an weak upper level low with ridging from the SW Conus trying
to nudge into the region from the west. Environment unstable
enough for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to
develop through the overnight hours...likely with less than 30
percent coverage of the area and mainly east of I-55 where it will
be a bit more away from the influence of the nudging ridge.
MCS developed over the plains today and will drop south towards
LA...though may stay west of the area according to HRRR runs and
weaken as it does. Will go with that...but this must be watched
in case it ends up slightly further west. Don't think it is any
severe threat for the region..but could bring rainfall that is
currently not forecasted early tomorrow morning if that should
occur. Ridhing nudges further east into the area and the upper
level low moves into FL by afternoon Monday...maybe an isolated
T-storm in the late afternoon and evening with peak heating. Ridge
moves into the area by early Tuesday. Above average temps will
continue through the period...with normal highs around 85 this
part of May.
-ABS

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Sunday)...

Ridging looks to be set in place Wednesday and Thursday above
average temps and dry mostly sunny days for the region. Friday a
large syatem moves from the Rockies into the far Northern Plains
and flattens the ridging across the region...surface high siting
off FL will start to push deeper moisture back into the area as a
cold front tries to push into LA but stalls by Saturday allowing
for better chances of showers and thunderstorms as we start the
weekend. The front fizzles north of the area...but could be enough
for continued showers and thunderstorms Sunday. Above normal temps
are likely through the period...though a bit cooler over the
weekend is possible due to the clouds and rainfall. -ABS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1225 PM CDT Sun May 15 2022/

AVIATION (18z TAFS)...

VFR conditions across the region with light winds. Seabreeze/lake
breeze will affect winds through the afternoon as it pushes inland
across the coastal sites. VCTS has been added especially along the
MS Gulf Coast as the seabreeze boundary may help focus TS
development later today. Will continue to watch for development
and if coverage looks more widespread than anticpated may need to
consider addition of VCTS or TSRA at MSY/BTR/NEW. Soon after
sunset chances for TS should be low, and VFR will dominate with
light west or NW winds. Don't think fog will be much of an issue
with some CI blow off from storms up stream...will have to watch
that MCS complex as it may reach here early morning/daybreak and
TAFs currently do not show such a scenario. -ABS

MARINE...

A few scattered storms this afternoon but other than that just a
potential for isolated, mainly nocturnal, thunderstorms, no major
impacts are expected over marine areas during the forecast period.
35/ABS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  67  91  67  92 /   0  20  20  10
BTR  68  92  69  92 /   0  20  20  10
ASD  68  93  68  93 /  10  20  20  10
MSY  72  91  73  91 /  10  10  10  10
GPT  70  91  70  91 /  10  30  20  10
PQL  67  91  67  92 /  10  30  20  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
505 PM CDT SUN MAY 15 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     HAIL             1 ENE TIMBERLANE        29.88N 90.01W
05/15/2022  E1.50 INCH       PLAQUEMINES        LA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL TO THE SIZE OF PING PONG BALLS REPORTED
            JUST SOUTHEAST OF TERRYTOWN.

&&

CAB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
511 PM CDT SUN MAY 15 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0438 PM     HAIL             2 E BELLE CHASSE        29.85N 89.98W
05/15/2022  E2.00 INCH       PLAQUEMINES        LA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            PICTURE RELAYED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA OF HAIL
            NEAR 2 IN DIAMETER NEAR THE BRAITHWAITE
            FERRY ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MS RIVER.

&&

CAB