Severe Thunderstorm Warning 50, NWS New Orleans, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
414 PM CDT Fri May 13 2022

.SHORT TERM (Tonight Through Sunday Night)...

Unsettled weather continues this afternoon, as we remain under
northwest flow aloft with weak high pressure to the west.
This has allowed weak disturbances to move southward across the
region causing scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop
this afternoon. Convection will generally dissipate this evening
as daytime heating ends.

Meanwhile, an upper level low pressure system located
off the Georgia Coast will meander westward through Saturday and
shift the high pressure more towards Texas. Much of SE LA and
Southern MS will be under weak trough tonight. Deterministic
models and CAMs indicate the development of an MCS across Arkansas
late tonight. With the mean flow diving due south, there are
indications that the system may hold together. This would allow
convection to move south across our Mississippi areas into
Northern Louisiana by late morning or early afternoon. Storms may
become cold pool driven and continue surging southeastward through
the early afternoon before moving offshore. Additional storms
could form on any linger boundaries if the atmosphere and surface
heating recovers.

The aforementioned low will fill and lift off to the northeast as
the pattern becomes progressive. We will remain in northerly flow
aloft still on Sunday as high pressure build across the Desert
Southwest. We could see another weak disturbance bring scattered
showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon. However, these should
not be widespread. (JL/69)

.LONG TERM (Monday Through Thursday)...

The heat turns on and the taps turn off as we head into the
3rd full work week of May. Surface high pressure across the SE
CONUS will largely dominate the weather for the next few days.
Aloft at the H5 level, initial northwest flow become nearly zonal
through the week. As such, upper level impulses will remain to
our north with no significant feature to generate rainfall.
Although winds will be southerly through the period, there remains
dearth of deep layer moisture as well which would likely limit
any heat- of-the-day thunderstorm or stray shower development.

High temperatures will generally be in the upper 80s to lower 90s
on Monday but will increase a bit each day. By late in the week,
highs will range in the mid 90s. Heat indices should top out in
the mid to upper 90.

By late in the period, a surge of moisture will move around the
periphery of the surface high pressure across the SE. This could
bring some showers back to the forecast next weekend. (JL/69)

&&

.AVIATION(Valid through 18Z Sat)...
Scattered showers with some thunderstorms will continue to
develop through the afternoon into the early evening as weak upper
level impulses move through the mean northerly flow. CAMs show
hit and miss develop that could impact all terminals through the
next few hours, with timing varying. Storms should start to die
off with the loss of daytime instability with skies clearing and
winds more variable.(JL/69).

&&

.MARINE...

Surface low pressure over the Atlantic Coast will shift westward
across the the Florida Panhandle and weaken the high pressure that
as been in place. This has allowed for more variable winds and
increased shower and thunderstorm activity. The unsettled pattern
will continue through Sunday before the low lifts north and
surface high pressure, southerly winds, and dry weather returns
for most of next week. (JL/69)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  65  88  66  90 /  20  50  30  10
BTR  66  89  66  90 /  20  50  20  20
ASD  65  88  66  90 /  50  60  40  20
MSY  70  87  70  88 /  50  50  30  30
GPT  69  87  69  89 /  20  50  40  30
PQL  67  87  67  89 /  10  40  40  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
328 PM CDT Fri May 13 2022

LAZ046>048-132100-
Iberville LA-West Baton Rouge LA-East Baton Rouge LA-
328 PM CDT Fri May 13 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of West Baton Rouge,
central Iberville and southwestern East Baton Rouge Parishes through
400 PM CDT...

At 327 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Grosse Tete, or 8 miles west of Port Allen, moving south at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph, pea size hail, and torrential
         rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible. Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this
         storm and may lead to localized flooding.

Locations impacted include...
Baton Rouge, Plaquemine, Port Allen, Addis, Brusly, Rosedale, Grosse
Tete, Ramah, Erwinville and Gardere.

This includes Interstate 10 in Louisiana between mile markers 134 and
155.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3045 9152 3051 9149 3051 9142 3054 9141
      3056 9136 3056 9127 3052 9123 3037 9115
      3020 9119 3017 9138 3029 9153 3036 9155
TIME...MOT...LOC 2027Z 007DEG 13KT 3045 9135

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JRK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
340 PM CDT Fri May 13 2022

LAZ076-079-080-132100-
Southeast St. Tammany LA-Northern St. Tammany LA-
Southwestern St. Tammany LA-
340 PM CDT Fri May 13 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central St. Tammany
Parish through 400 PM CDT...

At 340 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles north of Lacombe, or 11 miles northwest of Slidell, moving
south at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Slidell, Lacombe and Slidell Airport.

This includes Interstate 12 between mile markers 66 and 80.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is also occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3053 8995 3048 8977 3025 8984 3037 9008
TIME...MOT...LOC 2040Z 011DEG 14KT 3043 8989

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JRK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
345 PM CDT Fri May 13 2022

LAZ056-057-085-086-132100-
Western Ascension LA-Assumption LA-St. James LA-Eastern Ascension LA-
345 PM CDT Fri May 13 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southwestern
Ascension, St. James and northeastern Assumption Parishes through 400
PM CDT...

At 344 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Donaldsonville to near Convent. These storms
were nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Donaldsonville, Napoleonville, Gramercy, Lutcher, South Vacherie,
Paincourtville, Convent, North Vacherie, Belle Rose and Wallace.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is also occurring with these
storms. Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek
a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3012 9109 3016 9109 3017 9107 3017 9094
      3015 9082 3008 9069 2992 9067 2993 9100
      2996 9107 3011 9110
TIME...MOT...LOC 2044Z 333DEG 2KT 3010 9100 3006 9082

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JRK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
401 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     HAIL             1 SW WESTMINSTER        30.40N 91.10W
05/13/2022  E1.00 INCH       EAST BATON ROUGE   LA   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

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