Severe Thunderstorm Warning 43, NWS New Orleans, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
425 AM CDT Fri May 6 2022

.SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday)... Line of sh/ts moving through
this morning with mainly one area of strong to severe thunderstorms
that has moved over the metro south shore locations then into St
Tammany and on into coastal Mississippi. This initial line is at
least projected in most CAMs to begin decaying later this morning as
it leaves support but this has yet to be seen or started.
CAMs(depending which one) tries to bring another line of sh/ts
developing in response to the next shortwave this morning which can
be seen in the blowup of convection over the NW gulf. Stability is
lacking for this activity as the first line has been able to knock
stability values down quite a bit. CAPE values have been brought
back to around 1kJ this morning. But the issue is, advection is
expected to bring these numbers back up to around 2kJ ahead of this
next line. Dew pt temps have not been dropped that much and 70F
should be able to move back into the area quickly this morning. All
in all, we could see a few thunderstorms with this shortwave as it
moves through this morning. With help from the shortwave and sfc
frontogenetic forcing, one or two of these could become strong or
severe with all modes on the table but not expecting it to be like
the earlier line of sh/ts. Strong stability does move into the area
once the cold front begins to move through, this stable line is
found along and west of a line from MCB to BTR by 10am today and
Picayune to the mouth of the Atchafalaya River by noon then lays
along the coast by 3pm. But the moisture is actually moving out
ahead of this stable line. All this just to say that most if not all
thunderstorm activity should be over about 2 hours earlier than the
stable line reaching each location. Clouds will clear the area this
afternoon but since the frontal boundary stalls and is somewhat
quasi-stationary, moisture will be trapped along and south of it
where there will be opportunity for dense fog to form maybe in a few
locations Sat morning but there are some strong indications that
Sunday morning will be a very good morning for production along and
south of this dew pt gradient.

.LONG TERM...Upper level ridging and high pressure will dominate the
weather pattern. Southerly surface winds will help to enhance warmer
and moist air in the environment. Upper level convergence will help
to enhance sinking and stable air in the environment. As a result,
conditions Sunday through Wednesday will be pretty dry overall and
this is evidenced in the model consensus. We are not really
expecting rain at all the beginning of next week.

However, it is worth noting that it will be hot, and it will feel
hot! NBM max temperatures and heat index values were a little low
compared to most of the other model guidance and when considering
the strong ridging that is expected. Max temperatures and dewpoints
were bumped up a few degrees as a result to be more in line with the
overall model guidance. Temperatures next week, especially toward
mid- week, will be in the low to mid 90s. Heat index values are
forecast to be in the low 100s at times across the area. Yes, it is
the South, but given that it is early May, many people are not quite
acclimated to the summer temperatures just yet. So, people will need
to take extra precautions to stay hydrated and wear loose fitting
clothing, especially if they will be spending time outside. An
interesting thing occurs with the current low sitting over Missouri
this morning. This low slowly moves over the gulf stream of the
western Atlantic and stalls. The Brermuda High then begins to build
back into the western Atlantic and shoves this low south and
westward into Florida possibly by Thursday. We will see how this
plays out in the great beyond.

&&

.AVIATION...
LIFR cigs and vis restrictions due to TSRA will be an issue at least
for the first several hours this morning but cigs and vis will begin
to improve at each terminal which will be timed in taf sets. The
next issue could be vis restrictions Sat morning for a few sites but
this should not be widespread.

&&

MARINE...Current flags will remain over all waters. These should be
able to be lowered by late tonight as wind speeds begin to ease.
Showers and thunderstorms will remain over the coastal waters today
but should dissipate and move east late today. Winds will remain
with a westerly component until Sunday when a more established
southerly flow develops. Winds from teh SE should then rise to
around 15-20kt through Wed. A sfc high may begin to move over the
northern gulf waters that will cause winds to become erratic but
weak.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  85  59  88  62 /  20   0   0   0
BTR  87  61  89  66 /  20   0   0   0
ASD  88  61  89  64 /  60   0   0   0
MSY  87  68  89  71 /  70   0   0   0
GPT  88  64  89  66 /  80   0   0   0
PQL  87  61  88  62 /  80   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for GMZ530-532-
     534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for GMZ532-534-
     536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
405 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0248 AM     TSTM WND GST     12 SSE GULFPORT         30.23N 88.98W
05/06/2022  M73 MPH          GMZ532             MS   MESONET

            WEATHERFLOW STATION XSHI SHIP ISLAND.

0335 AM     TSTM WND GST     MAIN PASS 140B          29.30N 88.85W
05/06/2022  M55 MPH          GMZ555             LA   AWOS

            PLATFORM AWOS KMIS REPORTS 55 MPH WIND GUST.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
837 AM CDT Fri May 6 2022

LAZ060-064-070-077-078-087-088-061400-
Western Orleans LA-St. Charles LA-Upper St. Bernard LA-
Lower Jefferson LA-Eastern Orleans LA-Lower St. Bernard LA-
Upper Jefferson LA-
837 AM CDT Fri May 6 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northwestern St.
Bernard, central St. Charles, Orleans and northwestern Jefferson
Parishes through 900 AM CDT...

At 834 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 7 miles east of Lake Catherine to St. Rose.
Movement was east at 15 mph. Rain amounds of up to one inch in 30
minutes is likely with the stronger storms.

HAZARD...Locally heavy rainfall.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Brief very low visibilities and ponding of water on
         roadways.

Locations impacted include...
New Orleans, Chalmette, Avondale, Metairie, Hahnville, East New
Orleans, Marrero, Harvey, Jefferson, Gretna, Harahan, Westwego, Lake
Catherine, Luling, River Ridge, Boutte, Ama, Destrehan, St. Rose and
Norco.

This includes the following Interstates...
 Interstate 10 in Louisiana between mile markers 217 and 251.
 Interstate 310 between mile markers 1 and 11.
 Interstate 510 between mile markers 1 and 3.
 Interstate 610 between mile markers 1 and 4.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3003 9043 3016 8955 3013 8955 3013 8951
      3007 8949 3005 8956 2980 9043
TIME...MOT...LOC 1334Z 266DEG 14KT 3014 8959 2997 9029

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
854 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SSW PEARL RIVER       30.35N 89.75W
05/06/2022                   ST. TAMMANY        LA   NWS EMPLOYEE

            NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTS TREE DOWN AT HWY 11 AND
            LONE OAK DRIVE IN PEARL RIVER, LA.

&&

MSW