Gale Warning 1, NWS New Orleans, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1124 AM CST Sat Jan 1 2022

.NEAR TERM (Through this evening)...
Showers are already popping up this morning as of 11AM with no
thunder so far. The lift helping these showers develop is really
hard to find, maybe a weak shortwave moving in from the Gulf
as shown on the GFS. You don't need a lot of lift with as much
moisture and shear we currently have and instability will continue
to increase throughout the day. We have to overcome a couple
inversions today to really tap into the high instability this
afternoon. Given the current values on the SPC meso page, it looks
like we're moving that way. This is also why these showers are
staying so shallow; dry air aloft and probably another inversion
to get through. So all the basics are there for strong
thunderstorms this afternoon but with little to no organized lift,
these should remain very isolated and probably be low topped
rotating showers/thunderstorms. But it will need to be monitored.

A Wind Advisory is in effect for the whole area now, through 6PM
tonight. Winds will be quite close to criteria tomorrow as well
but we will reevaluate that this afternoon. For today, the
tightening of the pressure gradient will keep winds elevated.
Looks like they are already at 15-20 MPH with gusts near 30 MPH.
They may increase a little more this afternoon with gusts near 35
MPH later today.

.AVIATION...18z TAFs
The main story is the strong winds today at all terminals.
Sustained winds will be near 15-20 knots with gusts up to 35 knots
possible. A strong cold front will move through overnight with a
wind shift to the NW. Winds remain elevated Sunday but shoudn't be
as high as today. IFR CIGS will move in overnight with the front
as well as some showers and maybe a few storms.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 351 AM CST Sat Jan 1 2022/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday)...

Tonight we should start to see at least an increase in coverage
of showers as the cold front gets close to the region. The
strongest lift with the system will be to the north and
instability will be quickly waning after sunset. Even so, low
level shear will stay around 30 knots as well as the fact that low
level moisture continues to increase through the afternoon with
the southerly flow. This leads to the threat of a strong to severe
storm at least through the early overnight hours. The font looks
to be through the area by early Sunday afternoon which means the
high temperature will be in the morning, depending on what part of
the area you're in. Temps will fall fast behind it with a ridge
becoming the leading force going into the work week.

The next hazard worth mentioning is the freezing temperatures
that occur behind the front on Sunday. Temperatures are forecast
to fall to near freezing for the South shore and well below
freezing across the north shore areas. We will likely need to look
at Freeze Headlines especially for the northern areas with low
temperatures dipping down into the mid to upper 20s Sunday night.
Temperatures will remain chilly on Monday and clear skies and
drier weather conditions are expected.

LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...

The core of the cold air mass and surface high begin to lift away
from the area Monday night so temperatures won't be quite as
chilly Monday night into Tuesday morning, but given the clear
skies to start the night, temperatures should plummet after
sunset. Light northeast flow for the first half of the night will
also be conducive for cold air drainage down the Pearl and
Pascagoula River basins. By later in the night winds become more
easterly and dewpoints begin to increase, so wouldn't be surprised
if lows occur a couple hours before sunrise and then even out or
even slowly begin to rise.

Air mass moderation continues during the day Tuesday as winds
quickly become southeasterly in response to the surface high
shifting off the eastern seaboard. Expect afternoon temperatures to
rise into the lower 60s, which is near or just slightly higher than
seasonal norms this time of year.

At the same time, an upper trough will dig into the upper plains
states and a series of fast moving, embedded shortwaves will serve
to dig the trough farther south. First shortwave remains north of
the local area, but could still provide just enough forcing to fire
off a few showers Wednesday afternoon. Second shortwave rounds the
base of the upper trough on Thursday, forcing a surface cold front
through the area and bringing scattered showers along with it. There
remains some fairly large differences in the timing of the front
and the intensity of the shallow cold air mass behind it. In fact
temperature spread between high and low members of both the Euro
and NBM members is 25 to 30 degrees for lows on both Friday and
Saturday. Given the large range of possibilities have opted to
split the difference between the GFS and Euro ensemble means for
Friday and Saturday, which results in a forecast that is a couple
degrees warmer than the NBM 50th percentile.

95/DM

MARINE...
Strong cold air advection is forecast to dip down into the
coastal waters today that will cause waves and winds to increase
so can expect some pretty breezy conditions. Small Craft Advisory
is in effect for all coastal areas and lakes starting 12Z today
through 12Z Sunday. A Gale Watch is in effect from 12Z Sunday to
06Z Monday as winds and waves conditions continue to deteriorate
with frequent gusts up to 40kts throughout the day. Winds will
slowly become more mild during the day on Monday, but small crafts
should still exercise caution. High pressure will build in over
the coastal waters Monday and remain in place through at least mid
week. /TDB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  82  49  60  26 /  50  70  60   0
BTR  83  48  63  28 /  60  60  50   0
ASD  82  59  67  31 /  40  80  70   0
MSY  82  59  68  36 /  40  80  70   0
GPT  77  64  68  33 /  30  80  80   0
PQL  78  65  70  32 /  30  80  80  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for LAZ034>037-039-
     046>050-056>061-063>072-075>078.

GM...Gale Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for GMZ530-
     532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Sunday for GMZ530-532-534-
     536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for MSZ068>071-077-
     080>082.

GM...Gale Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for GMZ532-
     534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Sunday for GMZ532-534-536-
     538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&