Flash Flood Warning 62, NWS New Orleans, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
405 AM CDT Thu Aug 25 2022

.SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday)... Will be going up with a
flash flood watch for today. This will not be as much of an areawide
distribution but moreso a rate driven event. Some of the
thunderstorms today could be in or around 4" per hour rates over
already saturated grounds. This would cause some areas to flood
easily within a short period. PW values are still north of 2" and
covective trigger temps are still matching up with SST numbers. This
would lead to a good bit of activity with heating by itself but the
weak inverted boundary and sfc low will help this a bit, especially
since they are over the area today causing a better focus. This was
farther north yesterday. These features will continue to weaken but
will still hang in enough to help get things going again Friday.
Went more deterministic with precip percentages for today since
these features are over the area. But may back these down gently for
Friday and possibly again Saturday.

.LONG TERM (Sunday and Beyond)...

An easterly to southeasterly flow pattern will be in place early
next week, which will help to reintroduce more moisture into the
area. This is shown in model soundings with PWATs jumping back to
around or above 2" and a rise in low and mid-level RH values.
Although there is no obvious feature aloft or in the mid levels that
would aid convection, a lack of any ridging will allow for higher
PoPs which range from 70-75% through mid-week. Did make a slight
adjustment down in PoPs, about 5% or so, as the NBM seems to still
be running on the high side. Any showers or thunderstorms that do
develop will likely be on sea or lake breeze boundaries as well as
any lingering outflows from previous storms. Temperatures are
expected to remain consistent in the mid to upper 80s through the
week.

HL

&&

.AVIATION...(12z)
IFR and LIFR conditions will again plague the area today with sh/ts
affecting all terminals, and again at different times. Some vis
restrictions and low cigs may result overnight tonight for terminals
well inland but most coastal locations should retain VFR outside
TSRA.

&&

MARINE... Thunderstorms will continue to form over the nearshore
waters over the next several days mainly during the late night into
mid morning hours. Winds and seas will remain in a light southerly
flow of 5 to 10 knots and seas of 2 feet or less. The main concern
from any thunderstorms will be brief periods of gusty winds, heavy
rainfall, and the potential for a few waterspouts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  82  71  84  69 / 100  40  90  30
BTR  87  74  87  73 / 100  40  90  20
ASD  87  73  87  73 / 100  50  90  30
MSY  86  76  86  75 / 100  60  90  40
GPT  85  74  86  74 / 100  70  90  40
PQL  84  73  86  72 / 100  70  90  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flood Watch through this evening for LAZ034>037-039-047-048-071-
     076-079>084.

GM...None.
MS...Flood Watch through this evening for MSZ068>071-077-080>082.

GM...None.
&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1140 AM CDT THU AUG 25 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1130 AM     FLASH FLOOD      GAUTIER                 30.39N 88.64W
08/25/2022                   JACKSON            MS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            MEDIA RELAYED IMAGE OF WATER ESTIMATED TO BE
            ABOUT A FOOT DEEP ON THE SHAMROCK CT.

&&

JZ