Special Weather Statement, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
316 PM CDT Fri Aug 5 2022

.SHORT TERM [Tonight through Sunday]...
Wx map shows high pressure ridge across the Northern Gulf of
Mexico, providing a south to southeast flow across the area.
Radar finally showing increased shower and thunderstorm coverage
across Southeast Texas, still isolated to scattered across Central
and Southern Louisiana. Still expecting increased coverage later
this afternoon. For this, keeping the 50-70% across the area
through early evening. WPC continues the marginal risk of
excessive rainfall for Southeast Texas and Southwest Louisiana
this afternoon. Expect the showers and thunderstorms to diminish
by sunset.

The mid to upper level trough axis expected to move further west
and slowly weaken over the weekend, leaving the area in a predominate
southeast flow at the surface and aloft. This will keep enough
Gulf moisture (precip H2O 1.5-2.0" range) over the region to provide
scattered to at time numerous showers and thunderstorms. This is
expected to begin during the pre-dawn hours across the coastal
waters, move closer to the coast and coastal parishes/counties
near daybreak, and spread/develop further inland during the late
morning and afternoon hours.

Afternoon highs expected to be in the upper 80s to lower 90s,
with mid 90s across Inland Southeast Texas and Central Louisiana.
Heat index values of 98-103 expected during maximum heating. Lows
each day in the lower to mid 70s, with upper 70s to near 80 along
the coast.

08/DML

.LONG TERM [Monday through Friday]...
At the start of the long term period, the forecast area will be
located beneath a broad weakness aloft, while at the surface light
to moderate onshore flow will continue to pump deep tropical
moisture into the region. As a result, a fairly repetitive forecast
will persist through at least the first half of the long term
period. POPs around 40-60% are on tap each afternoon, with the best
coverage expected across the I-10 corridor to the coast, with lesser
chances further inland. Regardless, coverage each day will be fairly
hit or miss so some location could see no rain while otherwise could
potentially see periods of heavy downpours leading to localized
flash flooding. With decent rain chances each day, temperatures
remain near or slightly below climo norms, with afternoon highs in
the upper 80s to lower 90s and overnight lows in the mid 70s.

Towards the end of the week (day 7-8) the pattern begins to change
as guidance depicts a weak frontal boundary sliding across the
region as a deepening trof becomes carved out over the Eastern
Seaboard. While the boundary looks unlikely to bring any colder air
to the region, it may bring a shot of drier low level air as winds
shift north on Thursday. Regarding rain chances through this period,
the surface boundary looks to become nearly stationary near the
coast through the end of the week, which will likely serve as a
focus for convection. Therefore, elevated rain chances continue
across the southern half of the region, especially south-central LA.
However, further inland, drier air may be enough to keep convection
at bay, as rain chances taper down a bit by Fri.

17

&&

.MARINE...

Surface high pressure ridging across the northern Gulf of Mexico
will maintain a light to occasionally moderate onshore flow
through the next several days. An upper level disturbance moving
across the northwest Gulf will help provide numerous showers and
thunderstorms today. This disturbance will move off to the west
over the weekend with more typical daily scattered showers and
thunderstorms returning for the coastal waters.

08

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  72  93  72  94 /  10  40  10  30
LCH  74  89  74  90 /  30  60  20  60
LFT  74  89  74  90 /  10  60  10  60
BPT  76  90  77  91 /  40  60  30  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
318 PM CDT Fri Aug 5 2022

LAZ041-073-074-TXZ201-215-216-261-262-062030-
Calcasieu-West Cameron-East Cameron-Hardin-Jefferson-Orange-
Southern Jasper-Southern Newton-
318 PM CDT Fri Aug 5 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Louisiana and
southeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue this
afternoon. Some locally heavy rainfall may occur due to high
rainfall rates between 1 and 3 inches per hour with the stronger
storms. A Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 4) Potential for Excessive
Rainfall has been outlined. If these rainfall amounts occur, flooding
of low lying areas and urban type street flooding will be possible.
Also, occasional to frequent cloud to ground lightning will occur
with the storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

There will be a daily chance for thunderstorms during the period.
Besides some locally torrential downpours, occasional cloud to
ground lightning can be expected.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LAZ027>033-042>045-052>055-TXZ180-259-260-062030-
Vernon-Rapides-Avoyelles-Beauregard-Allen-Evangeline-St. Landry-
Jefferson Davis-Acadia-Lafayette-Upper St. Martin-Vermilion-Iberia-
St. Mary-Lower St. Martin-Tyler-Northern Jasper-Northern Newton-
318 PM CDT Fri Aug 5 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Louisiana, south
central Louisiana, southwest Louisiana, west central Louisiana and
southeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue this afternoon.
Occasional cloud to ground lightning and locally torrential downpours
can be expected with the storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

There will be a daily chance for thunderstorms during the period.
Besides some locally torrential downpours, occasional cloud to
ground lightning can be expected.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-062030-
Sabine Lake-Calcasieu Lake-Vermilion Bay-
Coastal waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA
out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX from 20 to 60 NM-
Coastal waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA from 20 to 60 NM-
Coastal waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA
from 20 to 60 NM-
318 PM CDT Fri Aug 5 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Gulf of Mexico and the
coastal lakes and bays of the Gulf of Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms can be expected again overnight.
Occasional to frequent cloud to water lightning will be the main
hazard. Also, heavy rainfall will greatly reduce visibility.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

There will be a daily chance for thunderstorms during the period.
Locally higher winds and seas, torrential rainfall greatly reducing
visibility, and occasional cloud to water lightning will be the main
hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
454 PM CDT Fri Aug 5 2022

TXZ180-052215-
Tyler TX-
454 PM CDT Fri Aug 5 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of west central Tyler
County through 515 PM CDT...

At 454 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Woodville, moving west at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Woodville and Ivanhoe.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3082 9438 3066 9441 3065 9457 3091 9464
TIME...MOT...LOC 2154Z 097DEG 10KT 3076 9449

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

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