Severe Thunderstorm Warning 20, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
401 PM CDT Sun May 1 2022

.SHORT TERM [Tonight through Wednesday morning]...
Storms continue to develop along the I-10 corridor this afternoon
spreading slowly deeper into southeast Texas and srn Louisiana.
Storms are moving slowly this afternoon and producing some heavy
downpours in south-central Louisiana while the whole area expands
to the north deeper into Louisiana and southeast Texas. Storms
look to wane during the evening hours with the lost of daytime
heating. Storms ending before midnight.

One of the interesting things noted in the vsby stlt images is
the subtropical jet blowing the top off of the storms over the
region. This continues and will continue to allow to strengthen.

During the overnight hours plenty of moisture from rains today
will help in the development in the fog potential. Fog will limit
visibility to a mile or less through sunrise... gradually
improving after sunrise.

Tmrw will see the bndry in cntrl La lift to the north and this
will allow the moisture to shift into northern Louisiana with
storms chances ending. Guidance continues to suggest that weak
riding aloft will remain through midweek as gulf moisture runs
north. Dry weather pattern thru Wednesday as aftn temps climb into
the upper 80s.

K. Kuyper

.LONG TERM [Wednesday through Saturday]...

The extended period begins on the dry side with upper level ridging
extending from the great lakes to the northern gulf coast
suppressing what will already be a relatively dry middle
atmosphere. At the surface, persistent southerly flow will
maintain a warm, moist airmass across the region. The upper level
ridge will progress east Wednesday night into Thursday as a
shortwave moves east out of the Rockies and across the central
plains. Guidance continues to come into better agreement on this
cyclone pushing a cold front through the region although the
boundary will will do more to lower dewpoints than temperatures.

Increasing mid level moisture ahead of the boundary will allow for
the development of scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms
Thursday afternoon into Friday morning. Forecast soundings over the
last couple of model cycles have been depicting favorable severe
weather parameters along and ahead of the front although at this
range significant changes remain possible. SPC's long range severe
weather outlook presently keeps the best severe weather threat
across north Louisiana and much of Arkansas. Guidance remains
notably divided on the timing of the fropa and subsequent ending of
precip with the GFS slower. However, the recent trend has seen the
GFS gradually trending in the direction of the more consistent euro
so leaned in the Euro's direction by ending precip by 18Z Friday.

Lower dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s in the wake of the
front will allow a meaningful drop in overnight lows through the
weekend. Daytime temps won't share in this relief as high will
remain in the upper 80s to 90 although the lower dewpoints will feel
more comfortable.

Jones

&&

.MARINE...

Modest onshore winds will continue into next week as seas
remaining elevated. Storms

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  69  88  70  89 /  20  10  10  30
LCH  70  85  70  87 /  20   0   0  10
LFT  70  86  72  88 /  20  10   0  10
BPT  72  86  72  87 /  20   0   0  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
302 PM CDT Sun May 1 2022

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-022015-
Vernon-Rapides-Avoyelles-Beauregard-Allen-Evangeline-St. Landry-
Calcasieu-Jefferson Davis-Acadia-Lafayette-Upper St. Martin-
Vermilion-Iberia-St. Mary-Lower St. Martin-West Cameron-East Cameron-
Tyler-Hardin-Jefferson-Orange-Northern Jasper-Northern Newton-
Southern Jasper-Southern Newton-
302 PM CDT Sun May 1 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Louisiana, south
central Louisiana, southwest Louisiana, west central Louisiana and
southeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.
Storm activity tapering off into the evening hours. Look for areas of
fog to develop towards sunrise.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Another round of disturbances to our north expected to bring a
chance of showers and thunderstorms Thursday into Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-022015-
Sabine Lake-Calcasieu Lake-Vermilion Bay-
Coastal waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA
out 20 NM-Waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA from
20 to 60 NM-
302 PM CDT Sun May 1 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Gulf of Mexico and the
coastal lakes and bays of the Gulf of Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.
Moderate southerly flow to continue into the overnight hours with
seas three to four feet in the coastal waters... lakes will have a
light chop.

Elevated southeast winds and seas tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Onshore winds expected to strengthen by Monday and Tuesday, tapering
off through midweek.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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