Gale Warning 7, NWS Lake Charles, LA

141 
WHUS74 KLCH 300126
MWWLCH

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
726 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2022

GMZ450-301230-
/O.NEW.KLCH.MF.Y.0015.221130T0126Z-221130T1200Z/
/O.CON.KLCH.GL.W.0007.221130T1200Z-221201T0600Z/
/O.CON.KLCH.SC.Y.0044.221201T0600Z-221201T1800Z/
Coastal waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX out 20 NM-
726 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2022

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY...
...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT
CST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT TO NOON CST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...For the Gale Warning, northeast winds 20 to 30 kt with 
  gusts up to 40 kt expected. For the Dense Fog Advisory, dense 
  fog will reduce visibility to 1/4 NM or less. For the Small 
  Craft Advisory, northeast winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 
  30 kt expected.

* WHERE...Coastal waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX out 
  20 NM.

* WHEN...For the Gale Warning, from 6 AM Wednesday to midnight 
  CST Wednesday night. For the Dense Fog Advisory, until 6 AM 
  CST Wednesday. For the Small Craft Advisory, from midnight 
  Wednesday night to noon CST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. Low 
  visibility will make navigation difficult.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

If you must navigate, proceed with caution. Use proper fog
signals. Make sure all running lights are on. Remember to use
your radar and compass.

&&

$$

GMZ452-470-472-301230-
/O.CON.KLCH.GL.W.0007.221130T1200Z-221201T0600Z/
/O.CON.KLCH.SC.Y.0044.221201T0600Z-221201T1800Z/
Coastal waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX from 20 to 60 NM-
Coastal waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA from 20 to
60 NM-
726 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2022

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT
CST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT TO NOON CST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...For the Gale Warning, northeast winds 25 to 30 kt with 
  gusts up to 40 kt and seas 4 to 7 ft expected. For the Small 
  Craft Advisory, northeast winds 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt 
  and seas 4 to 7 ft expected.

* WHERE...Coastal waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX out 
  20 NM, Coastal waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA out 
  20 NM, Coastal waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX from 
  20 to 60 NM and Coastal waters from Intracoastal City to 
  Cameron LA from 20 to 60 NM.

* WHEN...For the Gale Warning, from 6 AM Wednesday to midnight 
  CST Wednesday night. For the Small Craft Advisory, from 
  midnight Wednesday night to noon CST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

GMZ430-432-301230-
/O.NEW.KLCH.MF.Y.0015.221130T0126Z-221130T1200Z/
/O.CON.KLCH.SC.Y.0044.221130T1200Z-221201T0600Z/
Sabine Lake-Calcasieu Lake-
726 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2022

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO
MIDNIGHT CST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...For the Dense Fog Advisory, dense fog will reduce 
  visibility to 1/4 NM or less. For the Small Craft Advisory, 
  northeast winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt expected.

* WHERE...Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake.

* WHEN...For the Dense Fog Advisory, until 6 AM CST Wednesday. 
  For the Small Craft Advisory, from 6 AM Wednesday to midnight 
  CST Wednesday night.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft. Low 
  visibility will make navigation difficult.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

If you must navigate, proceed with caution. Use proper fog
signals. Make sure all running lights are on. Remember to use
your radar and compass.

&&

$$

GMZ435-301230-
/O.CON.KLCH.SC.Y.0044.221130T1200Z-221201T0600Z/
Vermilion Bay-
726 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO
MIDNIGHT CST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...North winds 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt expected.

* WHERE...Sabine Lake, Calcasieu Lake and Vermilion Bay.

* WHEN...From 6 AM Wednesday to midnight CST Wednesday night.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

GMZ455-475-301230-
/O.CON.KLCH.SC.Y.0044.221130T1200Z-221201T1800Z/
Coastal waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City
LA out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City
LA from 20 to 60 NM-
726 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO
NOON CST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts 30 to 35 kt and 
  seas 4 to 7 ft expected.

* WHERE...Coastal waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to 
  Intracoastal City LA out 20 NM and Coastal waters from Lower 
  Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA from 20 to 60 NM.

* WHEN...From 6 AM Wednesday to noon CST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

133 
WHUS74 KLCH 300949
MWWLCH

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
349 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2022

GMZ455-475-301800-
/O.EXA.KLCH.GL.W.0007.221130T1200Z-221201T0600Z/
/O.EXT.KLCH.SC.Y.0044.221201T0600Z-221201T1800Z/
Coastal waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City
LA out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City
LA from 20 to 60 NM-
349 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2022

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
NOON CST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...For the Gale Warning, north winds 15 to 25 kt with 
  gusts up to 40 kt and seas 4 to 6 ft expected. For the Small 
  Craft Advisory, northeast winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 
  35 kt and seas 4 to 6 ft expected.

* WHERE...Coastal waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to 
  Intracoastal City LA out 20 NM and Coastal waters from Lower 
  Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA from 20 to 60 NM.

* WHEN...For the Gale Warning, from 6 AM this morning to 
  midnight CST tonight. For the Small Craft Advisory, from 
  midnight tonight to noon CST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

GMZ450-301800-
/O.CON.KLCH.MF.Y.0015.000000T0000Z-221130T1200Z/
/O.CON.KLCH.GL.W.0007.221130T1200Z-221201T0600Z/
/O.CON.KLCH.SC.Y.0044.221201T0600Z-221201T1800Z/
Coastal waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX out 20 NM-
349 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2022

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS
MORNING...
...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO
MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
TO NOON CST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...For the Gale Warning, northeast winds 20 to 30 kt with 
  gusts up to 40 kt expected. For the Dense Fog Advisory, dense 
  fog will reduce visibility to 1/4 NM or less. For the Small 
  Craft Advisory, east winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt 
  expected.

* WHERE...Coastal waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX out 
  20 NM.

* WHEN...For the Gale Warning, from 6 AM this morning to 
  midnight CST tonight. For the Dense Fog Advisory, until 6 AM 
  CST early this morning. For the Small Craft Advisory, from 
  midnight tonight to noon CST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. Low 
  visibility will make navigation difficult.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

If you must navigate, proceed with caution. Use proper fog
signals. Make sure all running lights are on. Remember to use
your radar and compass.

&&

$$

GMZ452-470-472-301800-
/O.CON.KLCH.GL.W.0007.221130T1200Z-221201T0600Z/
/O.CON.KLCH.SC.Y.0044.221201T0600Z-221201T1800Z/
Coastal waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX from 20 to 60 NM-
Coastal waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA from 20 to
60 NM-
349 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2022

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO
MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
TO NOON CST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...For the Gale Warning, northeast winds 20 to 30 kt with 
  gusts up to 40 kt and seas 4 to 6 ft expected. For the Small 
  Craft Advisory, east winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt 
  and seas 4 to 6 ft expected.

* WHERE...Coastal waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA 
  out 20 NM, Coastal waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX 
  from 20 to 60 NM and Coastal waters from Intracoastal City to 
  Cameron LA from 20 to 60 NM.

* WHEN...For the Gale Warning, from 6 AM this morning to 
  midnight CST tonight. For the Small Craft Advisory, from 
  midnight tonight to noon CST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

GMZ430-432-301800-
/O.CON.KLCH.MF.Y.0015.000000T0000Z-221130T1200Z/
/O.CON.KLCH.SC.Y.0044.221130T1200Z-221201T0600Z/
Sabine Lake-Calcasieu Lake-
349 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2022

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS
MORNING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING
TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT...

* WHAT...For the Dense Fog Advisory, dense fog will reduce 
  visibility to 1/4 NM or less. For the Small Craft Advisory, 
  northeast winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt expected.

* WHERE...Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake.

* WHEN...For the Dense Fog Advisory, until 6 AM CST early this 
  morning. For the Small Craft Advisory, from 6 AM this morning 
  to midnight CST tonight.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft. Low 
  visibility will make navigation difficult.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

If you must navigate, proceed with caution. Use proper fog
signals. Make sure all running lights are on. Remember to use
your radar and compass.

&&

$$

GMZ435-301800-
/O.CON.KLCH.SC.Y.0044.221130T1200Z-221201T0600Z/
Vermilion Bay-
349 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING
TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT...

* WHAT...North winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt expected.

* WHERE...Vermilion Bay.

* WHEN...From 6 AM this morning to midnight CST tonight.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

443 
WHUS74 KLCH 301525
MWWLCH

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
925 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2022

GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475-010600-
/O.CON.KLCH.GL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-221201T0600Z/
/O.CON.KLCH.SC.Y.0044.221201T0600Z-221201T1800Z/
Coastal waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City
LA out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX from 20 to 60 NM-
Coastal waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA from 20 to
60 NM-
Coastal waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City
LA from 20 to 60 NM-
925 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2022

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
TO NOON CST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...For the Gale Warning, northeast winds 25 to 30 kt with
  gusts to 40 kt and seas 4 to 8 ft, occasionally up to 10 ft. 
  For the Small Craft Advisory, east winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts 
  up to 35 kt and seas 4 to 7 ft expected.

* WHERE...Portions of the Gulf of Mexico. 

* WHEN...For the Gale Warning, until midnight CST tonight. For 
  the Small Craft Advisory, from midnight tonight to noon CST 
  Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

GMZ430-432-435-010600-
/O.CON.KLCH.SC.Y.0044.000000T0000Z-221201T0600Z/
Sabine Lake-Calcasieu Lake-Vermilion Bay-
925 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt.

* WHERE...Sabine Lake, Calcasieu Lake and Vermilion Bay.

* WHEN...Until midnight CST tonight.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

834 
WHUS74 KLCH 302100
MWWLCH

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
300 PM CST Wed Nov 30 2022

GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475-010600-
/O.CAN.KLCH.GL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-221201T0600Z/
/O.EXT.KLCH.SC.Y.0044.221130T2100Z-221201T1800Z/
Coastal waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City
LA out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX from 20 to 60 NM-
Coastal waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA from 20 to
60 NM-
Coastal waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City
LA from 20 to 60 NM-
300 PM CST Wed Nov 30 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and 
  seas 4 to 7 ft.

* WHERE...Portions of the Gulf of Mexico. 

* WHEN...Until noon CST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

GMZ430-432-435-010300-
/O.EXT.KLCH.SC.Y.0044.000000T0000Z-221201T0300Z/
Sabine Lake-Calcasieu Lake-Vermilion Bay-
300 PM CST Wed Nov 30 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt.

* WHERE...Sabine Lake, Calcasieu Lake and Vermilion Bay.

* WHEN...Until 9 PM CST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1110 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2022

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Wx map shows 1027 mb surface high pressure over the East Coast,
996 mb surface low pressure over KS/MO, with a fairly healthy
pressure gradient between the two features. For our region,
southerly winds around 10-15 mph with gusts over 20 mph this
morning. Expect the southerly winds to increase to 15-20 mph with
gusts 25-30 mph later this afternoon and evening, even higher
within the thunderstorms. Temperatures already in the mid to upper
70s despite the cloud cover. Expect most of the area to reach the
upper 70s to near 80 as a few breaks in the overcast expected.
Radar showing scattered showers and a few thunderstorms, expecting
the coverage and intensity to gradually increase this afternoon.
Overall forecast on track with latest update to this morning and
afternoon hourly forecast.

08/DML

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 430 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2022

Warm and moist air advection occurring over the forecast area this
early morning with temperatures and dew points rising during the
night. This also can be noticed with the usual low clouds and
patchy fog, along with streamer showers off the Gulf. This is in
response to a robust upper level trough moving out of the Rockies
and a surface low forming over the Southern Plains.

The upper level trough and surface low will move eastward today
into tonight. Southerly low level jet will continue to increase
ahead of this system to 40+ knots by late morning. This will allow
highly anomalous moisture seen on the GOES over the middle Gulf to
advance quickly into the forecast area. Precipitable water values
are expected to increase to over 1.5 inches (which is above the
90th percentile of SPC daily climo) by afternoon.

We also will see an increase in low level instability as the warm
humid air moves inland. MUCAPES by afternoon will be in the
2000-3000 j/kg range, especially north of I-10 away from the
marine layer. Therefore, scattered showers and thunderstorms will
be on the increase.

With the region becoming under the favorable right entrance
region of an upper level jet moving around the trough, the
environment will become highly sheared allowing for some rotating
storms, along with favorable mid level lapse rates to produce
hail.

Thus, some of the convection that becomes surface rooted, best
chance of this will be north of I-10, will have the potential to
become severe, and cells that become discrete will have supercell
characteristics. Therefore, thunderstorms that develop will have
the potential to produce all modes of severe weather, including
damaging wind gusts, large hail, a few tornadoes, intense rainfall
rates, and frequent cloud to ground lightning. During this round,
large hail will probably have the highest probability.

A cold front from the storm system will approach the forecast area
this evening and move across overnight. As this occurs, the
scattered showers and storms are expected to form into line
segments that will probably congeal into a squall line feature
from late this evening into the overnight. These storms will again
have the potential for severe weather, with mainly damaging wind
gusts and large hail, although embedded spin ups within the line
can not be ruled out. Also, training of heavy rain cores within
the line could also bring about a quick flood ha12 kzard.

Severe Potential: This afternoon through tonight.

Enhanced Risk Potential (level 3 out of 5) for areas northeast of
roughly a Newton Texas to Opelousas Louisiana line. Large Hail at
least 30 percent within 25 miles, damaging winds at least 15
percent, tornado at 5 percent.

Slight Risk Potential (level 2 out of 5) for the
remainder of the of forecast area. Damaging winds/large hail at
least 15 percent withing 25 miles, tornado 5 percent.

Excessive Rainfall Potential: This afternoon through tonight.

Marginal Risk Potential (level 1 out of 4 or at least 5 percent)
for areas east of roughly a Jasper to Beaumont Texas line. There
is a small area in eastern Avoyelles and eastern St. Landry
parishes that have a Slight Risk Potential (level 2 out of 4 or at
least 15 percent.) This will mainly be for intense rainfall rates
of 1 to 2 inches per hour. Any HP-Supercells or training along
the squall line will bring quick heavy rainfall that may overwhelm
urban drainage areas or low areas that still have saturated
grounds from recent rains.

The rain chances will end quickly behind the front with brisk
northerly winds bringing in cooler and drier air. The coldest
night in this episode looks to be Wednesday night/Thursday morning
with lows in the mid to upper 30s.

Rua

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 430 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2022

Surface high pressure centered over the mid Atlantic coast Friday
will turn increasing winds southeasterly, advecting a shallow, but
warm and humid airmass back across the region through the day.
Dewpoints are progged to climb from the mid 40s Friday morning into
the mid 60s by Friday evening. The tropical airmass will allow
temperatures to climb well above normal through the weekend with
afternoon highs in the upper 70s (lower 80s across central
Louisiana) and overnight lows in the lower 60s.  Aloft, a sprawling
upper level ridge centered over the central Gulf of Mexico will
maintain comparably dry, zonal flow in the mid and upper levels
resulting in only scattered cloud cover.

A shortwave is progged to move quickly out of the Pacific northwest
across the northern plains and into the Great Lakes region Friday
into Saturday. A trailing frontal boundary will dig south across the
central U.S. but will meet strong resistance from the ridge over the
gulf causing it to stall. A majority of guidance stalls the boundary
further north across central and southern Arkansas compared to north
Louisiana as was being depicted yesterday. Should this scenario
verify, the result would be only isolated convection across the
region which would be more diurnally driven in response to the
tropical airmass rather than frontal lifting. Should the front stall
further south, more widespread convection would be expected Saturday.

The gulf ridge will expand north across the northern gulf coast
Sunday into Monday pushing the stalled boundary back to the north
and lifting some drier mid level air across the area as it does so.
Steady southerly flow at the surface will maintain temperatures 10
to 15 degrees above climatological norms into the first half of next
week.

Jones

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
IFR ceilings expected to improve to MVFR across all terminals this
afternoon. Expecting intermittent SHRA across southern terminals,
kept VCTS for AEX and intermittent TSRA for this afternoon within
the area of higher risk for TSRA. As chances of SHRA/TSRA increase
later this evening through early Wednesday morning, VCTS for all
sites for 08-09z. Behind the line of TSRA and before the front,
expecting a brief period of LIFR ceilings/IFR visibilities for
LCH/BPT between 09-12z likely the marine layer influence and
possible fog. By 12-13z, the significant wind shift with the
front expected, with skies clearing, and winds increasing 15-18
kts with gusts over 25 kts by 15z.

08/DML

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 430 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2022

Southeast flow is increasing over the coastal waters this early
morning and with that warm and moist Gulf air is being push back
over relatively cooler near shore water temperatures with mid 60
dewpoints moving over lower 60s water temperatures. The result has
been sea fog especially over the southeast Texas and lower
southwest Louisiana near shore waters according to satellite.
However, not receiving any widespread reports of below 1 nm
visibilities in that area, so no marine dense fog advisory as of
now but will monitor closely. This flow will continue through the
day, so at least patchy sea fog is likely to persist over the
near shore waters through the day. Wind speeds will be in the 15
to 20 knot range so will continue the exercise caution wording.

A cold front will move through the coastal waters late tonight and
early Wednesday morning. Thunderstorms will develop ahead of the
front, some could be strong with gusty winds and frequent cloud to
water lightning. The chance for storms and any lingering sea fog
will end with the frontal passage.

In wake of the front, high pressure will build down from the
Plains bringing northerly winds and cold air advection. This will
allow for strong and gusty offshore winds. There will be the
potential for frequent wind gusts over gale force by Wednesday
afternoon beyond 20 nm. Therefore a Gale Watch has been issued for
the coastal waters between High Island and Cameron and this maybe
extended for all the outer waters later today.

Rua

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  78  53  64  35 /  90  70   0   0
LCH  78  59  67  39 /  80  70   0   0
LFT  78  61  69  40 /  80  90  10   0
BPT  78  58  68  41 /  60  50   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ430-432-450-452.

     Gale Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening for
     GMZ450-452-470-472.

&&

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....66
AVIATION...08

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
553 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2022

LAZ027>033-TXZ260-301200-
Vernon-Rapides-Avoyelles-Beauregard-Allen-Evangeline-St. Landry-
Northern Newton-
553 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Louisiana, southwest
Louisiana, west central Louisiana and southeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Severe Weather possible from this afternoon through tonight.
Enhanced Risk Potential (level 3 out of 5) for areas northeast of
roughly a Newton Texas to Opelousas Louisiana line. Large Hail at
least 30 percent within 25 miles, damaging winds at least 15 percent,
tornado at 5 percent.

Excessive Rainfall Possible from this afternoon through tonight.
Marginal Risk Potential (level 1 out of 4 or at least 5 percent.)
There is a small area in eastern Avoyelles and eastern St. Landry
parishes that have a Slight Risk Potential (level 2 out of 4 or at
least 15 percent.) This will mainly be for intense rainfall rates of
1 to 2 inches per hour. Any HP- Supercells or training along the
squall line will bring quick heavy rainfall that may overwhelm urban
drainage areas or low areas that still have saturated grounds from
recent rains.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

GMZ432-LAZ041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259-261-262-
301200-
Calcasieu Lake-Calcasieu-Jefferson Davis-Acadia-Lafayette-
Upper St. Martin-Vermilion-Iberia-St. Mary-Lower St. Martin-
West Cameron-East Cameron-Tyler-Hardin-Jefferson-Orange-
Northern Jasper-Southern Jasper-Southern Newton-
553 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Louisiana,
southwest Louisiana, southeast Texas and the coastal lakes and bays
of the Gulf of Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Severe Weather possible from this afternoon through tonight.
Slight Risk Potential (level 2 out of 5.) Damaging winds/large hail
at least 15 percent withing 25 miles, tornado 5 percent.

Excessive Rainfall Possible from this afternoon through tonight.
Marginal Risk Potential (level 1 out of 4 or at least 5 percent)
for areas east of roughly a Jasper to Beaumont Texas line. This will
mainly be for intense rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour. Any
HP-Supercells or training along the squall line will bring quick
heavy rainfall that may overwhelm urban drainage areas or low areas
that still have saturated grounds from recent rains.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

GMZ430-435-452-455-472-475-301200-
Sabine Lake-Vermilion Bay-
Coastal waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA
out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA from 20 to 60 NM-
Coastal waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA
from 20 to 60 NM-
553 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Gulf of Mexico and the
coastal lakes and bays of the Gulf of Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Patchy dense sea fog near the coast.
Strong thunderstorms with a squall line tonight that may produce
gusty winds and frequent cloud to water lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Strong and gusty north winds from Wednesday into Thursday with the
potential fog gale force gusts beyond 20 nm.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

GMZ450-470-301200-
Coastal waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX from 20 to 60 NM-
553 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2022

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Gulf of Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Patchy dense sea fog near the coast.
Strong thunderstorms with a squall line tonight that may produce
gusty winds and frequent cloud to water lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1135 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2022

LAZ031-032-291815-
Evangeline LA-Allen LA-
1135 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern
Evangeline and southeastern Allen Parishes through 1215 PM CST...

At 1135 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Elton, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Mamou, Oberlin, Beaver, Reddell and Bond.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3084 9255 3069 9233 3049 9269 3049 9277
      3047 9278 3054 9283
TIME...MOT...LOC 1735Z 224DEG 30KT 3053 9273

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

Calhoun

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1240 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2022

LAZ029-032-291915-
Avoyelles LA-Evangeline LA-
1240 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern
Evangeline and southwestern Avoyelles Parishes through 115 PM CST...

At 1240 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Indian Lake, or 8 miles southwest of Bunkie, moving northeast at 30
mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Bunkie, Cottonport, Hessmer, Evergreen, Plaucheville, Goudeau,
Dupont, Chicot State Park and St. Landry.

This includes Interstate 49 between mile markers 43 and 54.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CST for central
Louisiana.

&&

LAT...LON 3089 9190 3085 9205 3085 9221 3080 9221
      3078 9230 3088 9238 3097 9227 3096 9221
      3098 9221 3101 9222 3109 9212
TIME...MOT...LOC 1840Z 228DEG 26KT 3085 9226

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

Calhoun

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
138 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2022

LAZ029-292015-
Avoyelles LA-
138 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern
Avoyelles Parish through 215 PM CST...

At 138 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Black Hawk, or 11 miles east of Bordelonville, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Bordelonville and Big Bend.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CST for central
Louisiana.

&&

LAT...LON 3123 9179 3122 9176 3120 9173 3121 9170
      3119 9168 3117 9168 3116 9170 3114 9172
      3112 9172 3111 9170 3109 9172 3107 9171
      3104 9173 3102 9175 3101 9190 3112 9199
      3126 9183
TIME...MOT...LOC 1938Z 249DEG 33KT 3114 9171

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Calhoun

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
220 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2022

TXZ201-292045-
Hardin TX-
220 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Hardin
County through 245 PM CST...

At 220 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Votaw, or near Thicket, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Thicket and Votaw.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3049 9470 3049 9454 3053 9454 3053 9448
      3043 9439 3033 9468 3047 9473
TIME...MOT...LOC 2020Z 225DEG 24KT 3040 9470

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Calhoun