Gale Warning 4, NWS Lake Charles, LA

054 
WHUS74 KLCH 112106
MWWLCH

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
306 PM CST Fri Mar 11 2022

GMZ450-452-470-120515-
/O.CON.KLCH.GL.W.0004.220312T0000Z-220312T1800Z/
/O.CON.KLCH.SC.Y.0018.220312T1800Z-220312T2100Z/
Coastal waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA out 20 NM-
Waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX from 20 to 60 NM-
306 PM CST Fri Mar 11 2022

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 3 PM CST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...For the Gale Warning, north winds 25 to 35 kt with 
  gusts up to 45 kt and seas 5 to 8 ft expected. For the Small 
  Craft Advisory, north winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt 
  expected.

* WHERE...Waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX from 20 to 60 
  NM, Coastal waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA out 20 
  NM and Coastal waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX out 20 
  NM.

* WHEN...For the Gale Warning, until noon CST Saturday. For the 
  Small Craft Advisory, from noon to 3 PM CST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

GMZ455-472-475-120515-
/O.CON.KLCH.GL.W.0004.220312T0000Z-220312T2100Z/
/O.EXT.KLCH.SC.Y.0018.220312T2100Z-220313T0300Z/
Coastal waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City
LA out 20 NM-
Waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA from
20 to 60 NM-
306 PM CST Fri Mar 11 2022

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM CST SATURDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM TO 9 PM CST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...For the Gale Warning, north winds 25 to 35 kt with 
  gusts up to 50 kt and seas 7 to 10 ft expected. For the Small 
  Craft Advisory, north winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt 
  and seas 4 to 7 ft expected.

* WHERE...Waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal 
  City LA from 20 to 60 NM, Waters from Intracoastal City to 
  Cameron LA from 20 to 60 NM and Coastal waters from Lower 
  Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA out 20 NM.

* WHEN...For the Gale Warning, until 3 PM CST Saturday. For the 
  Small Craft Advisory, from 3 PM to 9 PM CST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

GMZ430-432-435-120515-
/O.CON.KLCH.SC.Y.0018.220312T0000Z-220312T2100Z/
/O.CON.KLCH.LO.Y.0006.220312T0600Z-220312T2100Z/
Sabine Lake-Calcasieu Lake-Vermilion Bay-
306 PM CST Fri Mar 11 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM CST
SATURDAY...
...LOW WATER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
3 PM CST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, north winds 20 to 30 kt 
  with gusts up to 45 kt expected. For the Low Water Advisory, 
  abnormally low water levels expected.

* WHERE...Sabine Lake, Calcasieu Lake and Vermilion Bay.

* WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, until 3 PM CST Saturday. 
  For the Low Water Advisory, from midnight tonight to 3 PM CST 
  Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft. Below 
  normal water levels will result in hazardous navigating 
  conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

Mariners should navigate shallow waters with extreme caution due
to below normal water levels.

&&

$$

965 
WHUS74 KLCH 120237
MWWLCH

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
837 PM CST Fri Mar 11 2022

GMZ450-452-470-121200-
/O.CON.KLCH.GL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-220312T1800Z/
/O.CON.KLCH.SC.Y.0018.220312T1800Z-220312T2100Z/
Coastal waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA out 20 NM-
Waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX from 20 to 60 NM-
837 PM CST Fri Mar 11 2022

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 3 PM CST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...For the Gale Warning, north winds 25 to 35 kt with 
  gusts up to 50 kt and seas 6 to 9 ft. For the Small Craft 
  Advisory, north winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and 
  seas 4 to 6 ft expected.

* WHERE...Waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX from 20 to 60 
  NM, Coastal waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA out 20 
  NM and Coastal waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX out 20 
  NM.

* WHEN...For the Gale Warning, until noon CST Saturday. For the 
  Small Craft Advisory, from noon to 3 PM CST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

GMZ455-472-475-121200-
/O.CON.KLCH.GL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-220312T2100Z/
/O.CON.KLCH.SC.Y.0018.220312T2100Z-220313T0300Z/
Coastal waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City
LA out 20 NM-
Waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA from
20 to 60 NM-
837 PM CST Fri Mar 11 2022

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM CST SATURDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM TO 9 PM CST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...For the Gale Warning, north winds 25 to 35 kt with 
  gusts up to 50 kt and seas 6 to 11 ft. For the Small Craft 
  Advisory, north winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and 
  seas 4 to 7 ft expected.

* WHERE...Waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal 
  City LA from 20 to 60 NM, Waters from Intracoastal City to 
  Cameron LA from 20 to 60 NM and Coastal waters from Lower 
  Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA out 20 NM.

* WHEN...For the Gale Warning, until 3 PM CST Saturday. For the 
  Small Craft Advisory, from 3 PM to 9 PM CST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

GMZ430-432-435-121200-
/O.CON.KLCH.SC.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-220312T2100Z/
/O.CON.KLCH.LO.Y.0006.220312T0600Z-220312T2100Z/
Sabine Lake-Calcasieu Lake-Vermilion Bay-
837 PM CST Fri Mar 11 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM CST
SATURDAY...
...LOW WATER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
3 PM CST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, north winds 20 to 30 kt 
  with gusts up to 45 kt. For the Low Water Advisory, abnormally 
  low water levels expected.

* WHERE...Sabine Lake, Calcasieu Lake and Vermilion Bay.

* WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, until 3 PM CST Saturday. 
  For the Low Water Advisory, from midnight tonight to 3 PM CST 
  Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft. Below 
  normal water levels will result in hazardous navigating 
  conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

Mariners should navigate shallow waters with extreme caution due
to below normal water levels.

&&

$$

006 
WHUS74 KLCH 120835
MWWLCH

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
235 AM CST Sat Mar 12 2022

GMZ450-452-470-122100-
/O.CON.KLCH.GL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-220312T1800Z/
/O.CON.KLCH.SC.Y.0018.220312T1800Z-220312T2100Z/
Coastal waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA out 20 NM-
Waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX from 20 to 60 NM-
235 AM CST Sat Mar 12 2022

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TODAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 3 PM
CST THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...For the Gale Warning, north winds 25 to 35 kt with gusts
  up to 50 kt and seas 6 to 9 ft. For the Small Craft Advisory, 
  north winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt and seas 4 to 6 
  ft expected.

* WHERE...Waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX from 20 to 60 
  NM, Coastal waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA out 20 
  NM and Coastal waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX out 20 
  NM.

* WHEN...For the Gale Warning, until noon CST today. For the 
  Small Craft Advisory, from noon today to 3 PM CST this 
  afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

GMZ455-472-475-122200-
/O.CON.KLCH.GL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-220312T2100Z/
/O.CON.KLCH.SC.Y.0018.220312T2100Z-220313T0300Z/
Coastal waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City
LA out 20 NM-
Waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA from
20 to 60 NM-
235 AM CST Sat Mar 12 2022

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 9 PM CST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...For the Gale Warning, north winds 30 to 40 kt with 
  gusts up to 50 kt and seas 6 to 12 ft. For the Small Craft 
  Advisory, north winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and 
  seas 5 to 8 ft expected.

* WHERE...Waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal 
  City LA from 20 to 60 NM, Waters from Intracoastal City to 
  Cameron LA from 20 to 60 NM and Coastal waters from Lower 
  Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA out 20 NM.

* WHEN...For the Gale Warning, until 3 PM CST this afternoon. 
  For the Small Craft Advisory, from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM 
  CST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

GMZ430-432-435-122100-
/O.CON.KLCH.LO.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-220312T2100Z/
/O.CON.KLCH.SC.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-220312T2100Z/
Sabine Lake-Calcasieu Lake-Vermilion Bay-
235 AM CST Sat Mar 12 2022

...LOW WATER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...For the Low Water Advisory, abnormally low water levels
  of -2.0 to -3.0 MLLW. For the Small Craft Advisory, north winds
  20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt.

* WHERE...Sabine Lake, Calcasieu Lake and Vermilion Bay.

* WHEN...Until 3 PM CST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft. Below 
  normal water levels will result in hazardous navigating 
  conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

Mariners should navigate shallow waters with extreme caution due
to below normal water levels.

&&

$$

414 
WHUS74 KLCH 121806
MWWLCH

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1206 PM CST Sat Mar 12 2022

GMZ450-452-470-122100-
/O.EXP.KLCH.GL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-220312T1800Z/
/O.CON.KLCH.SC.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-220312T2100Z/
Coastal waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA out 20 NM-
Waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX from 20 to 60 NM-
1206 PM CST Sat Mar 12 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON...
...GALE WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

* WHAT...North winds around 20 kt with gusts near 30 kt.

* WHERE...Waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX from 20 to 60 
  NM, Coastal waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA out 20 
  NM and Coastal waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX out 20 
  NM.

* WHEN...Until 3 PM CST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

GMZ455-472-475-130300-
/O.CON.KLCH.GL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-220312T2100Z/
/O.CON.KLCH.SC.Y.0018.220312T2100Z-220313T0300Z/
Coastal waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City
LA out 20 NM-
Waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA from
20 to 60 NM-
1206 PM CST Sat Mar 12 2022

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...For the Gale Warning, north winds 20 to 25 kt with 
  gusts up to 35 kt and seas 5 to 8 ft. For the Small Craft 
  Advisory, north winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and 
  seas 4 to 7 ft expected.

* WHERE...Waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal 
  City LA from 20 to 60 NM, Waters from Intracoastal City to 
  Cameron LA from 20 to 60 NM and Coastal waters from Lower 
  Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA out 20 NM.

* WHEN...For the Gale Warning, until 3 PM CST this afternoon. 
  For the Small Craft Advisory, until 9 PM CST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

GMZ430-432-435-122100-
/O.CON.KLCH.LO.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-220312T2100Z/
/O.CON.KLCH.SC.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-220312T2100Z/
Sabine Lake-Calcasieu Lake-Vermilion Bay-
1206 PM CST Sat Mar 12 2022

...LOW WATER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...For the Low Water Advisory, abnormally low water levels.
  For the Small Craft Advisory, north winds around 20 kt with 
  gusts up to 30 kt.

* WHERE...Sabine Lake, Calcasieu Lake and Vermilion Bay.

* WHEN...Until 3 PM CST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft. Below 
  normal water levels will result in hazardous navigating 
  conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

Mariners should navigate shallow waters with extreme caution due
to below normal water levels.

&&

$$

066 
WHUS74 KLCH 122106
MWWLCH

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
306 PM CST Sat Mar 12 2022

GMZ455-472-475-130300-
/O.EXP.KLCH.GL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-220312T2100Z/
/O.CON.KLCH.SC.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-220313T0300Z/
Coastal waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City
LA out 20 NM-
Waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA from
20 to 60 NM-
306 PM CST Sat Mar 12 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS
EVENING...
...GALE WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

* WHAT...North winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and seas 
  4 to 7 ft.

* WHERE...Waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal 
  City LA from 20 to 60 NM, Waters from Intracoastal City to 
  Cameron LA from 20 to 60 NM and Coastal waters from Lower 
  Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA out 20 NM.

* WHEN...Until 9 PM CST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

GMZ430-432-435-122215-
/O.EXP.KLCH.LO.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-220312T2100Z/
/O.EXP.KLCH.SC.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-220312T2100Z/
Sabine Lake-Calcasieu Lake-Vermilion Bay-
306 PM CST Sat Mar 12 2022

...LOW WATER ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

Winds will continue to diminish through the late afternoon and
evening. Water levels are also recovering, and are expected to
continue to rise back to near predicted levels tonight into
Sunday.

$$

GMZ470-130300-
/O.EXP.KLCH.SC.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-220312T2100Z/
/O.NEW.KLCH.SC.Y.0019.220312T2106Z-220313T0300Z/
Waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX from 20 to 60 NM-
306 PM CST Sat Mar 12 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...North winds around 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. 
  Seas from 4 to 7 feet.

* WHERE...Waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX from 20 to 60 
  NM.

* WHEN...Until 9 PM CST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

GMZ450-452-122215-
/O.EXP.KLCH.SC.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-220312T2100Z/
Coastal waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA out 20 NM-
306 PM CST Sat Mar 12 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

Winds will continue to diminish through the late afternoon into
the evening.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1148 PM CST Thu Mar 10 2022

.AVIATION... 06Z 11MAR22 TAFs
Little change from the 00Z forecast. The only changes worth
noting are tempos for reduced VIS as a result of fog and gusty
winds at the tail end of the forecast period. Conditions are
starting to deteriorate, with mid to upper level decks moving into
the area of the southern sites as well as some fog development.
Showers are still expected Friday morning, with showers and
thunderstorms later in the day ahead and along of the cold front.
Friday night, winds will pick up, becoming gusty at times with
gust of around 15 to 25kts. Gusty winds will prevail from Friday
night to past the end of this TAF cycle.
Stigger/87

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 922 PM CST Thu Mar 10 2022/

DISCUSSION...

The upper air sounding from KLCH this evening still shows a rather
dry air mass in place over the majority of the forecast area.
However, with the approach of a southern stream disturbance,
southerly winds above the surface will increase and help bring
back clouds from south to north by morning, along with a few
showers and thunderstorms, mainly over the coastal waters and
lower Acadiana.

Showers and thunderstorms will greatly increase later on Friday
as a rather strong cold front moves through the region. Also,
winds will become quite brisk and gusty behind the front on Friday
evening into Friday night. There is the potential for a wind
advisory during that time frame. A Gale Watch is currently in
effect for the coastal waters, and there is a high probability
that it will be replaced by a Gale Warning.

Current forecast is on track and made only minor adjustments to
the pops and clouds for the overnight period.

Rua

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 601 PM CST Thu Mar 10 2022/

AVIATION... 00Z 11MAR22 TAFs
VFR conditions to prevail momentarily before conditions start to
quickly deteriorate late tonight into early tomorrow due to a warm
front. This boundary will bring in isolated showers and lower
CIGS for the southern terminals. Lingering shower activity will be
ongoing into tomorrow afternoon to evening as a cold front begins
to work its way into the area. Showers will spread across the area
along with scattered thunderstorm activity.
Stigger/87

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 355 PM CST Thu Mar 10 2022/

SHORT TERM [Tonight through Saturday]...

Late afternoon sfc analysis shows high pressure centered over the
ern Seaboard ridging swwd across the cntl/wrn Gulf Coasts. Water
vapor imagery shows longwave troffing in place from the wrn Great
Lakes through the cntl/nrn Plains to the Desert SW with a wnwrly
mid/upper-level flow in place across the srn tier of the CONUS...a
series of weak disturbances noted embedded within it. Sfc obs and
satellite imagery show clear skies lingering over the forecast area
this afternoon although cloud cover on increasing low-level moisture
creeping nwd from the cntl Gulf toward the region. Unlike the past
couple of days, regional 88Ds are PPINE.

The early part of the short-term period looks pretty interesting.
Initially, skies will remain generally clear with dry weather
continuing under the influence of the ern CONUS high. The cloud
cover over the Gulf, associated with the remains of the old frontal
boundary which has been lingering out there for a couple of days
now, will make its way onto the coast during the overnight hours.
Meanwhile the initial weak disturbance passing aloft will interact
with the increasing moisture to allow for widely scattered shower
development prior to sunrise mainly near the coast. In addition,
with the flow just off the sfc turning more srly tonight, some light
fog cannot be ruled, especially across the sern zones where an erly
sfc flow off the Atchafalaya Basin will help further moisten up the
boundary layer. Lows tonight will continue their warming trend with
wake up temps in the upper 40s/lower 50s expected for most of the
area.

The next significant shortwave ejecting out of the Desert SW is
progged to approach tomorrow, increasing lift across the region.
Meanwhile, a sfc low is progged to develop over the wrn Gulf and
push newd toward the coast...leading initially to the development of
scattered showers and a few storms tomorrow morning, primarily over
the sern zones in closer proximity to the track of the low.

Later in the day, more widespread showers and scattered storms are
expected to start moving into the area from the west with the
approach of a strong cold front...with the activity peaking in the
late afternoon and evening hours with the passage of the front.
Forecast soundings are showing a little better instability during
the afternoon hours than previously advertised, thus the chance for
thunder is now looking better as well...however SPC has placed only
the far sern zones (where shear/lapse rates are best) in a marginal
risk for severe weather for now.

The front will move into the far wrn zones during the late afternoon
hours, quickly moving ewd across the remainder of the forecast area
through the evening. It will be accompanied by strong nrly winds and
a significant drop in temperatures. The end of the precip will lag
behind the frontal passage by a few hours, more in line with the h8
frontal passage and trof axis. Some of the model data is hinting at
some light precip lingering into the overnight hours...even if this
were to occur, it is expected that it will be all out of the
forecast area prior to the arrival of the coldest air prior to
sunrise. Wake up temps Saturday morning are progged to be running
around freezing for the nrn 1/2 of the area, with mid/upper 30s srn
1/2. With strong nrly winds expected on the development of good
CAA...in fact, a wind advisory will likely be needed starting
tomorrow evening...wind chills will drop to a range from the mid 20s
extreme nrn zones to lower 30s closer to the coast by sunrise
Saturday.

Saturday looks dry, continued breezy and cold for mid-March
standards with highs generally in the lower/mid 50s...almost 20
degrees below the climatological norms. Winds will begin to abate by
late in the day as CAA shuts off and high pressure approaches.
However with the high settling nearly overhead Saturday night, good
radiational cooling means a good portion of the area will see
freezing conditions by Sunday morning.

25

LONG TERM [Sunday through Thursday]...

The longterm period begins quiet with high pressure making its way
over the southeastern US. Winds will turn to the south with the
shifting high Sunday afternoon, ushering in the first day of warming
temperatures that will carry through the longterm forecast period.

Active weather will return in earnest with with clouds building in
from the southwest Monday morning ahead of a low pressure center
slowing making its way over the southeast Monday afternoon/evening
into Tuesday. While latest guidance does agree on a more-amplified
pattern aloft, there remains uncertainty on progression and track of
the low pressure center - GFS carries it further to the north across
central AR, while ECMWf is choosing a southern route across north
LA. The overall placement/track of the system will govern the
moisture and heat content return to the southeastern US, and overall
rain chance/amount expected Monday and Tuesday. The strong cold
front from early in the weekend will scour out much of the Gulf
airmass to the south, limiting how much energy and moisture can be
pulled north into TX/LA. A southern-tracking low would have better
forcing to pull north the moist airmass than a northern-tracking
system - driving up rain chances and precip totals. To account for
this uncertainty, rainfall totals and PoPs across Monday night and
early Tuesday morning were bumped up slightly. As models come closer
to the event and hopefully into better alignment, we can better
refine this time frame's forecast.

Conditions will dry out quickly as a narrow high pressure ridge
builds into the region early Wednesday. Even with this feature
developing aloft, surface low pressure will be the dominant feature
to the east, keeping surface winds turned to the south Wednesday and
Thursday. This will drive temperatures up by a few degrees each day -
 on par with the aforementioned warming trend. Rain chances return
again Thursday afternoon with the next upper level longwave trough
takes shape in the Midwest.

11

MARINE...

Easterly winds will shift to the northeast and increase late
tonight or Friday morning in response to an area of low pressure
developing over the western Gulf of Mexico which will push toward
the central Gulf Coast. Winds will then turn more northerly and
strengthen significantly with the passage of a strong cold front
Friday evening. A period of gale force winds appears likely post-
frontal passage, lingering into Saturday before relaxing. Showers
and a few thunderstorms will also be possible with this system.
High pressure building over the region will lead to lighter
winds, gradually shifting to a southerly direction by late Sunday
as the high moves east. Onshore flow will then increase during
the early part of the new week as lower pressures develop over
the Plains. Finally, cold front is forecast to slip through the
coastal waters Monday night into Tuesday, with another round of
elevated offshore flow expected in its wake.

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LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Gale Watch from Friday evening through Saturday morning for
     GMZ435-450-452-455-470-472-475.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  46  69  34  50 /   0  60  70   0
LCH  50  69  37  54 /  10  70  50   0
LFT  54  74  38  52 /  10  70  70   0
BPT  52  70  35  57 /  10  70  30   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Gale Watch from Friday evening through Saturday morning for
     GMZ435-450-452-455-470-472-475.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
250 PM CST Thu Mar 10 2022

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-112100-
Vernon-Rapides-Avoyelles-Beauregard-Allen-Evangeline-St. Landry-
Calcasieu-Jefferson Davis-Acadia-Lafayette-Upper St. Martin-
Vermilion-Iberia-St. Mary-Lower St. Martin-West Cameron-East Cameron-
Tyler-Hardin-Jefferson-Orange-Northern Jasper-Northern Newton-
Southern Jasper-Southern Newton-
250 PM CST Thu Mar 10 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Louisiana, south
central Louisiana, southwest Louisiana, west central Louisiana and
southeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not anticipated at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Another cold front is expected to cross the area on Friday with
showers and thunderstorms accompanying it. Widespread severe weather
is not anticipated, but a few strong storms will be possible,
primarily in portions of south-central Louisiana.

Freezing temperatures are possible for interior southeast Texas into
central Louisiana on Saturday morning, and likely on Sunday morning.
Freezing temperatures will be possible as far south as the
Interstate 10 corridor on Sunday morning.

Additionally, winds will increase considerably following the cold
frontal passage late Friday into Saturday. Sustained winds of 15 to
25 mph are expected, with gusts 30 to 40 mph possible. With the
cooling temperatures, the associated wind chills Friday night into
Saturday morning will fall into the 20s in many locations around the
region.

More isolated to scattered showers are expected during the early
part of next week with the approach and passage of another storm
system aloft and attendant surface cold front.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

GMZ435-450-452-455-470-472-475-112100-
Vermilion Bay-
Coastal waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA
out 20 NM-Waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA from
20 to 60 NM-
250 PM CST Thu Mar 10 2022

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Gulf of Mexico and the
coastal lakes and bays of the Gulf of Mexico.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not anticipated at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Watch.

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible from late Thursday
through early Saturday as an area of surface low pressure and
associated cold front move through. Following the cold frontal
passage late Friday, strong northerly winds will set in. A period of
gale force winds/gusts appear likely during this time period, and a
Gale Watch has been issued accordingly.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

GMZ430-432-112100-
Sabine Lake-Calcasieu Lake-
250 PM CST Thu Mar 10 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the coastal lakes and bays of
the Gulf of Mexico.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not anticipated at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible from late Thursday
through early Saturday as an area of surface low pressure and
associated cold front move through. Following the cold frontal
passage late Friday, strong northerly winds will set in. Small Craft
Advisory criteria is likely to be met or exceeded, and linger well
into the day on Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

25