Gale Warning 1, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
322 PM CST Sat Jan 1 2022

.SHORT TERM [Tonight through Monday night]...

Warm conditions are wrapping up, with a cold front poised to
overtake us late tonight. Not expecting any severe storms, in fact
coverage of precip is really quite spotty.

After the front passes through, winds will increase region-wide
out of the north. In addition, high temperatures on Sunday will
occur early, in the 7-9 am range, and cool thereafter. Wind chills
Sunday afternoon will be in the 30s!

There could be some lingering precip Sunday morning. Based on
forecast soundings, there could be a little sleet, but not
expecting any accumulation, and with the ground so warm, no icy
conditions are expected.

Monday morning will see the coldest temperatures in quite some
time, with most everyone below freezing. Will need to upgrade the
freeze watch to a freeze warning. Will also need to monitor to see
if temperatures can drop to 25 F or below in central Louisiana to
warrant a hard freeze warning. So far, not expecting this
scenario, but it bears watching.

&&

.MARINE...
Small craft advisories will transition to gale warnings on Sunday
behind the cold front. In addition, low water advisories are
needed due to the strong north winds on Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM [Tuesday through Saturday]...

Long term period begins with broad surface high pressure now
centered over the Mid-Atlantic continuing to trek eastward. As a
result, light easterly winds turn progressively more southerly on
Tuesday, and begin to usher in warmer and slightly moister air.
Aloft, a weak shortwave will quickly traverse the area. Given the
airmass will have just begun to moderate, lift/forcing should remain
insufficient for precipitation, and if anything may just see a few
extra clouds linger on through the morning hours. Provided the
aforementioned occurs as anticipated, afternoon highs look to span
the upper 50s to mid 60s, which is right around seasonal levels for
early January. By Wednesday, airmass continues to warm, and
temperatures will once again push above seasonal normal with highs
in the 70s.

Continuing on through mid-week, more robust shortwave energy starts
digging through the broad longwave pattern set up over much of the E
CONUS. This in turn yields fairly weak surface troughing and an
attendant cold front which is then driven through the forecast
region on Thursday. PWATS look to remain at or below around an inch,
and with little to no instability and somewhat meager forcing, only
currently looking at isolated to scattered shower chances. That
said, modest surface high building into the plains thereafter will
help tighten the pressure gradient and yield breezy post-frontal CAA
for the remainder of Thursday into Friday.

Moving into the weekend, surface high pressure once again moves east
allowing moderating return flow to develop. Aloft, noisy southwest
flow sets in along with the potential for some subtle embedded
shortwaves, which will lead to at least some low end PoPs.

50

.CLIMATE...

...A RIDICULOUSLY WARM END TO 2021...

For the first time in recent memory, a single month saw all five
climate locations within the forecast area easily exceed their
previous record warmest such month. Meanwhile, it was also a very
warm second half of the year (the period running from July through
December). Let's dive into the numbers.

Alexandria (records date to 1892)
-December: 63.5 degrees (previous record: 61.6/1933)
-2nd Half: 72.7 degrees was 5th warmest (rec: 73.2/3 times)
-Plus: 31st high of 84 tied for 4th warmest December day

New Iberia (records date to 1948)
-December: 64.5 degrees (previous record: 63.4/1984)
-2nd Half: 73.5 degrees was 4th warmest (rec: 75.0/2015)
-Plus: December rainfall of 2.23 inches was 10th driest

Beaumont/Port Arthur (records date to 1901)
-December: 66.5 degrees (previous record: 64.2/1933)
-2nd Half: just missed the top ten
-Plus: December rainfall of 1.42 inches was 5th driest

Lake Charles (records date to 1895)
-December: 64.4 degrees (previous record: 63.8/1933)
-2nd Half: 73.7 degrees tied for 6th warmest (rec: 74.7/1933)

Lafayette (records date to 1893)
-December: 65.1 degrees (previous record: 64.5/1971)
-2nd Half: 74.1 degrees was 4th warmest (rec: 74.9/twice)

Now let's move on to 2021 as a whole. All five climate sites were
abnormally warm, however none saw a top ten warmest year. Rainfall
ranged from very near normal to very wet, depending on location.

Alexandria
-Avg temp: 67.9 degrees (1.2 degrees above normal)
-Total rain: 54.56 inches (0.28 inches above normal)

New Iberia
-Avg temp: 69.4 degrees (0.3 degrees above normal)
-Total rain: 67.37 inches (7.06 inches above normal)

Beaumont/Port Arthur
-Avg temp: 69.9 degrees (0.2 degrees above normal)
-Total rain: 65.69 inches (3.94 inches above normal)

Lake Charles
-Avg temp: 69.8 degrees (0.6 degrees above normal)
-Total rain: 72.26 inches (14.09 inches above normal)

Lafayette
-Avg temp: 69.6 degrees (0.4 degrees above normal)
-Total rain: 79.44 inches (17.41 inches above normal)
-2021 was 6th wettest year on record (rec: 98.72/1940)

Here's to a more normal 2022!

25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  39  47  27  50 /  40  30   0   0
LCH  42  53  29  52 /  10  20   0   0
LFT  48  60  30  52 /  30  30   0   0
BPT  40  50  30  54 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Freeze Watch from Sunday evening through Monday morning for
     LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074.

     Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 9 PM CST Sunday for LAZ041>045-
     052>055-073-074.

TX...Freeze Watch from Sunday evening through Monday morning for
     TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262.

     Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 9 PM CST Sunday for TXZ201-215-216-
     261-262.

     Freeze Warning from 4 AM to 9 AM CST Sunday for TXZ180-259-260.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Sunday for GMZ435-450-452-
     455-470-472-475.

     Gale Warning from 6 AM Sunday to midnight CST Sunday night for
     GMZ435-450-452-455-470-472-475.

     Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST Sunday night for GMZ430-
     432.

&&