Flash Flood Warning 42, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
541 PM CST Sat Dec 10 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 330 PM CST Sat Dec 10 2022

Another wash, rinse, repeat type day in this ongoing abnormally
warm and humid pattern. Morning dense fog has given way to partly
to mostly cloudy skies amid south to southwest winds, with
temperatures in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees (close to 15
degrees above normal in many places). Similar to yesterday, a few
spotty showers have developed beneath capping around 5-7K FT.

Aloft, ridging persists over the Gulf of Mexico, although the
ridge is beginning to weaken some over the NW Gulf as a weak
disturbance in the southern stream approaches the area.

24

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 330 PM CST Sat Dec 10 2022

The disturbance aloft will continue to progress east into the area
tonight, ushering in a weak cold front (currently poised NW of
the area). Increasing ascent associated with the disturbance and
its attendant cold front should help to mitigate fog development
some tonight, so do not expect the widespread "pea soup" dense fog
that has been occurring with some persistence each night. That
said, patchy to areas of fog will still be possible, mainly across
the southern half of the area, and visibilities could lower to
less than 1 mile at times, especially near bodies of water and
near the coast. Advisories are not anticipated at this time, but
future shifts may need to monitor and reassess potential. Temperatures
will again be well above normal with lows in the lower to middle
60s.

PWATs will steadily increase ahead of the system, peaking near 1.6
inches in advance of the frontal boundary (exceeding the 90th
percentile per SPC Climatology). This along with surface
convergence near the front and upper support provided by the
shortwave will allow showers and thunderstorms to increase during
the evening and especially overnight as the front slips into the
region. Wind fields are not progged to strengthen significantly,
but sharply veering profiles in the lower levels could yield 0-3
KM SRH around 100 M2/S2. CAPE values remain rather modest, maxing
around 1000 J/KG, but should be sufficient in conjunction with the
low level shear to produce a few strong to marginally severe
storms from late this evening through the overnight. SPC continues
to advertise a MRGL risk for severe weather across SE TX/SW LA
north of I-10 through 12Z Sunday, with a MRGL risk for the Day 2
time period (after 12Z Sunday) extending eastward across LA north
of I-10 to account for ongoing strong convection as it moves east
early Sunday. The primary risks with these storms will be isolated
damaging wind gusts. In addition, a few isolated weak tornadoes
could be possible across SE TX into SW LA tonight, but the overall
threat for tornadoes should diminish further east.

Convection will shift east on Sunday, with chances decreasing from
west to east through the afternoon. Slightly drier air will filter
into the region behind the front, but temperatures are expected to
remain above normal. Highs on Sunday will again climb into the
70s, but not quite to the near record levels of recent days.
Overnight temperatures Sunday night will be slightly cooler, with
lows in the upper 50s north to around 60 south.

By Monday, weak ridging will translate over the region aloft,
between the exiting shortwave to the east and a more potent and
larger system taking shape over the western US. Winds will begin
to shift southeasterly as surface high pressure moves east of the
region. Ridging aloft should suppress rain chances on Monday, with
high temperatures climbing into the 70s. Lows Monday night will be
slightly warmer, in the lower to middle 60s, prior to stronger
warm advection pattern that is expected to develop by the start of
the long term period.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Friday)
Issued at 330 PM CST Sat Dec 10 2022

The long term forecast period starts on Tuesday with our region in
the warm sector of an approaching cold front. SPC has the entire
forecast area under a slight 15% risk for severe storms. It is too
early to know specifics on timing and most likely type of severe
weather, so stay tuned as we get closer to this potential severe
weather event.

By Wednesday morning, the cold front should be moving out of our
forecast area, so the high rain chances of Tuesday and Tuesday night
will be dropping west to east during the day on Wednesday.

Temperatures will also be dropping behind the front, with lows going
from the 40s on Thursday morning into the 30s for next weekend, and
highs going from the 60s on Thursday down into the 50s next weekend.

No precipitation is expected behind the front until possibly next
weekend, but those chances are still less than 20 percent.

15

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 528 PM CST Sat Dec 10 2022

Fairly complex TAF package this issuance. An area of thunderstorms
has begun to develop over eastern Texas along a boundary that will
slowly sag southeastward. This boundary will be the focus for
showers and thunderstorms later tonight after 06Z. In the
meantime, however, areas of ground fog may develop tonight along
and ahead of this boundary. At worst, visibilities are set to drop
to 3 to 5 SM, although a few patches of slightly lower VIS isn't
out of the picture through the morning. Ceilings are set to drop
with the boundary, falling below 500 feet at times after 06Z,
until storms wash through and ceilings can lift again tomorrow
afternoon.

11

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 330 PM CST Sat Dec 10 2022

A light to moderate onshore flow can be expected tonight, with
winds becoming more variable Sunday as a weak front slowly drifts
south and stalls near the coast. Patchy fog will be possible,
mainly over the nearshore waters off the upper Texas and southwest
Louisiana coast this evening through late morning. Pockets of
dense fog will be possible but should not be as widespread as it
has in recent days. Will hold off on issuance of a Dense Fog
Advisory at this time, but future shifts will likely need to
revisit the possibility.

Otherwise, scattered to numerous showers and storms will
accompany the front tonight into Sunday, with modest offshore
winds developing briefly before returning to the southeast during
the day Monday. A strong disturbance will approach the area by
Tuesday into Wednesday, and this could be accompanied by stronger
winds and higher seas both ahead of and behind the attendant cold
front.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  63  72  57  70 /  80  90  10  10
LCH  63  74  59  72 /  60  80  10  10
LFT  66  77  62  75 /  40  80  20  10
BPT  64  76  61  74 /  70  60  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....15
AVIATION...11

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
407 PM CST Sat Dec 10 2022

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-112215-
Vernon-Rapides-Avoyelles-Beauregard-Allen-Evangeline-St. Landry-
Calcasieu-Jefferson Davis-Acadia-Lafayette-Upper St. Martin-
Vermilion-Iberia-St. Mary-Lower St. Martin-West Cameron-East Cameron-
Tyler-Hardin-Jefferson-Orange-Northern Jasper-Northern Newton-
Southern Jasper-Southern Newton-
407 PM CST Sat Dec 10 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Louisiana, south
central Louisiana, southwest Louisiana, west central Louisiana and
southeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Patchy to areas of fog will be possible tonight but a weak cold
frontal passage late tonight into Sunday should limit dense fog.

Scattered to numerous showers and storms will develop late this
evening and increase through the overnight hours. There is a
marginal risk of severe storms across southeast Texas and southwest
Louisiana north of I-10, with isolated damaging wind gusts and weak
tornadoes the primary threats. In addition, there is a Marginal Risk
for excessive rainfall that could produce minor flooding of urban and
low lying areas across southeast Texas north of I-10.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Showers and storms will be ongoing Sunday morning as a weak front
moves east through the area. A Marginal Risk for severe weather,
primarily isolated damaging wind gusts, will be possible across
portions of southern and central Louisiana north of I-10.

A strong storm system aloft with an associated surface cold front
will lead to widespread showers and thunderstorms from Tuesday into
Wednesday. At this time, there is a chance that a few of the storms
could be severe with all modes of severe weather possible. Heavy
rains leading to localized flooding will also be possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-112215-
Sabine Lake-Calcasieu Lake-Vermilion Bay-
Coastal waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA
out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX from 20 to 60 NM-
Coastal waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA from 20 to 60 NM-
Coastal waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA
from 20 to 60 NM-
407 PM CST Sat Dec 10 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Gulf of Mexico and the
coastal lakes and bays of the Gulf of Mexico.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Patchy to areas of fog can be expected. A few pockets of dense fog
will be possible but dense fog not expected to be widespread.

Scattered showers and storms are expected to increase late this
evening and overnight as a weak front moves into the area. Stronger
storms will be capable of producing gusty winds and heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Periods of fog will be possible through early next week, mainly from
evening to late morning. By Tuesday into Wednesday, an approaching
strong storm system aloft with an associated surface cold front will
lead to widespread showers and thunderstorms. At this time, there is
a chance that a few of the storms could be severe with all modes of
severe weather possible. Heavy rains will also be possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
830 PM CST Sat Dec 10 2022

TXZ180-110300-
Tyler TX-
830 PM CST Sat Dec 10 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Tyler
County through 900 PM CST...

At 830 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Alabama-Coushatta Reservation, or 10 miles west of Woodville, moving
northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Woodville, Colmesneil and Ivanhoe.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3097 9442 3073 9429 3065 9457 3086 9462
TIME...MOT...LOC 0230Z 246DEG 19KT 3075 9461

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

Calhoun