Flash Flood Warning 30, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
933 AM CDT Wed Aug 24 2022

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 918 AM CDT Wed Aug 24 2022

The wet pattern continues this morning with widespread light
showers with embedded heavier rainfall spread across much of
central, south central and southwest Louisiana. The general trend
from the latest high res guidance is for this activity to persist
over the next few hours with additional development across
southeast Texas through the early afternoon. This should be
followed by a gradual lowering of coverage through the evening. The
precip and cloud cover will once again hold afternoon highs in
the low to mid 80s.

Will evaluate the need to extend the flood watch further with the
afternoon package, but trends so far this morning make that a
likely proposition.

Jones

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 215 AM CDT Wed Aug 24 2022

Scattered thunderstorms are redeveloping already this morning.
Radar estimates over the past 4 days from at some locations are 5
to 10", however most locations are 1 to 5" with lesser amounts
near the coast. The ground is generally saturated across a large
portion of the area, especially the northern zones.

A cold front remains stalled to the north with a very moist air
mass in place south of the boundary. PWATs are above the 90th
percentile. With the weak convergence and upper divergence in
place and the high moisture content, high rain chances are
anticipated. While guidance has seemed to somewhat overestimate
coverage, widespread convection is expected. Hi-res guidance is
indicating fairly high rainfall totals over locations that
have received significant amounts over the past few days, plus
they are slightly more focused from Jefferson Co through Rapides.
Opted to expand the FFA farther south for today.

A lull in convection may occur this evening, however another round
of wet weather is expected Thursday as the same pattern remains in
place.

For Friday the weak surface convergence begins to lift northwest,
but the overall pattern will remain in place. More rain.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 215 AM CDT Wed Aug 24 2022

Forecast for this weekend into early next week look to remain on the
wet side with above seasonal pops each day. The reason will be a
relative weakness overhead in the sub-tropical ridge, while
southerly flow continues to bring in abundant Gulf moisture. Even
though there will be no low level surface boundary around to focus
storm development, daytime heating and an active sea breeze should
be enough for a good deal of showers and storms from late morning
into the afternoon.

With the expected extra cloud cover and convection, high
temperatures each day are expected to be a little below climo norms.

07/Rua

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 AM CDT Wed Aug 24 2022

Showers and storms will continue to produce lower vis and ceilings
through the afternoon. A lull may occur late today, however
additional convection may redevelop late tonight along the coast
and move inland. SW winds will gradually back to SE during the
period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  87  74  88  73 / 100  60  80  40
LCH  86  73  86  73 / 100  70  90  60
LFT  85  75  86  75 / 100  70 100  60
BPT  87  74  88  74 /  90  70  80  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ027>033-041>043.

TX...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...66
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...05

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
356 AM CDT Wed Aug 24 2022

LAZ027>030-TXZ180-201-259>262-250900-
Vernon-Rapides-Avoyelles-Beauregard-Tyler-Hardin-Northern Jasper-
Northern Newton-Southern Jasper-Southern Newton-
356 AM CDT Wed Aug 24 2022

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Louisiana, southwest
Louisiana, west central Louisiana and southeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

Heavy rain may occur today on already saturated soils. Widespread
thunderstorms are expected and some may produce frequent lightning
with gusty winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected each day.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LAZ031>033-041>043-TXZ215-216-250900-
Allen-Evangeline-St. Landry-Calcasieu-Jefferson Davis-Acadia-
Jefferson-Orange-
356 AM CDT Wed Aug 24 2022

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Louisiana, southwest
Louisiana and southeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

Heavy rain may occur today on already saturated soils. Widespread
thunderstorms are expected and some may produce frequent lightning
with gusty winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected each day.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LAZ044-045-052>055-073-074-250900-
Lafayette-Upper St. Martin-Vermilion-Iberia-St. Mary-
Lower St. Martin-West Cameron-East Cameron-
356 AM CDT Wed Aug 24 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Louisiana and
southwest Louisiana.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Widespread thunderstorms are expected and some may produce frequent
lightning with gusty winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected each day.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-250900-
Sabine Lake-Calcasieu Lake-Vermilion Bay-
Coastal waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA
out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX from 20 to 60 NM-
Coastal waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA from 20 to 60 NM-
Coastal waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA
from 20 to 60 NM-
356 AM CDT Wed Aug 24 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Gulf of Mexico and the
coastal lakes and bays of the Gulf of Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon and tonight. Stronger storms could produce locally higher
winds and seas, along with occasional cloud to water lightning and
heavy rainfall reducing visibility to less than one mile at times.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected each day through
the week. Locally higher winds and seas along with occasional to
frequent cloud to water lightning and heavy rainfall can be expected
with the storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
942 AM CDT WED AUG 24 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0941 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 SSE ALEXANDRIA        31.26N 92.45W
08/24/2022                   RAPIDES            LA   911 CALL CENTER

            WATER COMING INTO HOME.

&&

KGK