Flash Flood Warning 24, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
350 PM CDT Wed Aug 3 2022

.SHORT TERM [Tonight through Friday]...

Wx map shows seasonal Bermuda high pressure ridge across the Northern
Gulf of Mexico. Radar showing large area of showers and thunderstorms
across East Central Louisiana, and is finally winding down across
South Central Louisiana. Couple of flash flood warnings continue
for parts of these areas. Expect the showers and thunderstorms to
gradually diminish by sunset this evening. A Marginal Risk (level
1 out of 4) Potential for Excessive Rainfall continues for this
region.

The combination of the weak upper level trough providing sufficient
instability couple with the abundance of Gulf moisture (Precip
H2O 2.25-2.50" range) will keep shower and thunderstorm chances
high for Thursday over most of Central and South Central Louisiana,
and areawide on Friday. Expect the area of showers and thunderstorms
to start during the predawn hours across the eastern and central
coastal waters before daybreak, with the focus shifting inland
during the late morning and afternoon hours. Like today, some of
these storms may produce locally heavy rainfall, and if stationary
for any length of time, flash flood warnings may be required. The
Marginal Risk Potential for Excessive Rainfall will continue for
southwest and south central Louisiana on Thursday and for
southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana on Friday.

Afternoon highs Thursday expected to be in the upper 80s to near
90 across Central and Southern Louisiana with the higher PoPs.
Further west, across West Central Louisiana and Southeast Texas,
lower to mid 90s, except upper 90s/near 100 across northwestern
Tyler County. Heat index values of 102-106 expected during
maximum heating. Lows in the lower to mid 70s, with upper 70s to
near 80 along the coast. Friday's highs expected in the upper 80s
to lower 90s.

08/DML

.LONG TERM [Saturday through Wednesday]...

The typical summertime pattern of daily convective activity will
return and prevail throughout the longterm period starting Saturday.
A trof sliding across the upper 48 will break down upper ridging
over the Midwest, subsequently creating a weakness over the
southeastern US. Thru midweek, the deeply moist and humid tropical
airmass already in place over LA and southeast TX will take
advantage of this weakness aloft to drive scattered to numerous
showers and storms well inland during the late mornings and
afternoons. Thursday and beyond, guidance suggests the ridge will
attempt to reestablish itself over the Plains states before building
east, which would likely result in lowered afternoon PoPs.

Cloud debris from frequent showers and thunderstorms will keep
daytime high temperatures in check with most areas remaining in the
low 90s throughout the longterm period.

&&

.MARINE...

Surface high pressure ridging across the northern Gulf of Mexico
will maintain a light to occasionally moderate onshore flow
through the next several days. An upper level disturbance moving
across the northwest Gulf will help provide numerous showers and
thunderstorms through the end of the week.

08

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  72  93  72  90 /  10  50  20  60
LCH  76  90  74  87 /  10  60  40  80
LFT  74  88  73  87 /  20  80  30  80
BPT  78  94  77  89 /  10  40  40  80

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
325 PM CDT Wed Aug 3 2022

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-042030-
Vernon-Rapides-Avoyelles-Beauregard-Allen-Evangeline-St. Landry-
Calcasieu-Jefferson Davis-Acadia-Lafayette-Upper St. Martin-
Vermilion-Iberia-St. Mary-Lower St. Martin-West Cameron-East Cameron-
Tyler-Hardin-Jefferson-Orange-Northern Jasper-Northern Newton-
Southern Jasper-Southern Newton-
325 PM CDT Wed Aug 3 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Louisiana, south
central Louisiana, southwest Louisiana, west central Louisiana and
southeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Numerous showers and thunderstorms to continue across Central and
South Central Louisiana. Some locally heavy rainfall may occur due
to high rainfall rates between 1 and 3 inches per hour with the
stronger storms. A Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 4) Potential for
Excessive Rainfall has been outlined for that area. Occasional to
frequent cloud to ground lightning will also be possible.

More isolated activity can be expected for southeast Texas with
hotter conditions with afternoon heat index readings around 105
degrees.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The Marginal Risk Potential for Excessive Rainfall will continue for
southwest and south central Louisiana on Thursday and for southeast
Texas and southwest Louisiana on Friday.

There will be a daily chance for thunderstorms during the period.
Besides some locally torrential downpours, occasional cloud to
ground lightning can be expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-042030-
Sabine Lake-Calcasieu Lake-Vermilion Bay-
Coastal waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA
out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX from 20 to 60 NM-
Coastal waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA from 20 to 60 NM-
Coastal waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA
from 20 to 60 NM-
325 PM CDT Wed Aug 3 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Gulf of Mexico and the
coastal lakes and bays of the Gulf of Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms expected to form east of
Cameron overnight towards daybreak. Occasional cloud to water
lightning will be the main hazard.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will continue through the end of
the week, with scattered thunderstorms for the weekend into early
next week. Locally higher winds and seas, torrential rainfall
greatly reducing visibility, and occasional cloud to water lightning
will be the main hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1208 PM CDT WED AUG 3 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1154 AM     FLASH FLOOD      SAINT MARTINVILLE       30.12N 91.83W
08/03/2022                   ST. MARTIN         LA   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: STREET/ROAD FLOODING;
            STREET/ROAD CLOSED; VEHICLES STRANDED.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1229 PM CDT WED AUG 3 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 E CADE                30.09N 91.87W
08/03/2022  M5.14 INCH       ST. MARTIN         LA   MESONET

            MESONET STATION CADL1 ULL CADE FARM
            LAFAYETTE13 SE LA US.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
238 PM CDT WED AUG 3 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0820 AM     LIGHTNING        IOTA                    30.33N 92.50W
08/03/2022                   ACADIA             LA   PUBLIC

            LIGHTNING STRUCK A TREE CAUSING THE TREE TO
            EXPLODE AND LIMB WENT THROUGH A ROOF.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
259 PM CDT Wed Aug 3 2022

LAZ028-032100-
Rapides LA-
259 PM CDT Wed Aug 3 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Rapides Parish
through 400 PM CDT...

At 258 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Boyce. This storm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Alexandria, Pineville, Boyce, Hineston, Lena, Alexandria
International Airport, Ball, Lecompte, Libuse, Tioga, Timber Trails,
Esler Regional Airport, Flatwoods, Otis, Elmer, Kingsville, Sieper,
Poland, Kolin and Gardner.

This includes Interstate 49 between mile markers 68 and 108.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3149 9270 3150 9268 3147 9269 3147 9271
      3145 9271 3145 9268 3142 9269 3141 9268
      3140 9269 3140 9267 3139 9266 3147 9221
      3109 9228 3106 9277 3140 9288 3142 9285
      3143 9284 3144 9281 3152 9272
TIME...MOT...LOC 1958Z 304DEG 4KT 3144 9267

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

Calhoun

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
355 PM CDT Wed Aug 3 2022

LAZ030-031-042-032130-
Jefferson Davis LA-Allen LA-Beauregard LA-
355 PM CDT Wed Aug 3 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northwestern
Jefferson Davis, southeastern Beauregard and southwestern Allen
Parishes through 430 PM CDT...

At 355 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Reeves to near Leblanc. Movement was east
at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Kinder, Reeves, Leblanc and Harmony.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3073 9295 3042 9276 3041 9310 3053 9322
TIME...MOT...LOC 2055Z 260DEG 12KT 3059 9301 3047 9295

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Calhoun