Flash Flood Warning 11, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
542 PM CDT Sat May 14 2022

.DISCUSSION...

For the 05/15/2022 0000 UTC TAF package.

&&

.AVIATION...
South southwest winds ~10-12 kts expected to diminish to 5 kts or
less after 01z. Radar much quieter today, with only a couple of
showers across ARA. Left the inherited VCTS for LFT/ARA through
01z, but with the earlier cloud cover holding high temperatures
down a bit this afternoon, not expecting organized convection for
tempo groups or prevailing TSRA at this time. May see some
intermittent patchy fog, but guidance not showing significant
reductions in visibilities at the terminals. After 15z Sunday,
southwest winds around 6-8 kts expected to become south-southwest
8-10 kts by the afternoon, with few/sct cloud layer ~3500-4000ft.
VFR expected to prevail through the period.

08

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 359 PM CDT Sat May 14 2022/

SHORT TERM [Tonight through Monday]...

Relatively quiet day across the forecast area thus far, with only
a few stray showers noted periodically on radar imagery and
temperatures generally in the mid 80s to around 90. Still some
opportunity for convective initiation over the next few hours as
subtle impulses translate through the NW flow aloft between a
ridge centered south of the Baja and an upper trof over the SE
CONUS/ERN Gulf, but it is worth noting that the bulk of short
range guidance continues to be rather muted. There are a few
solutions which depict whatever remains of the TSTMS currently
underway near the AR/MO border reaching northern parts of the
area during the overnight period, but for now will continue with a
dry forecast with lows in the upper 60s to around 70..

For tomorrow, the ridge to the west is progged to flex EWD, which
will further cut down on afternoon/evening rain chances, and along
with a decrease in overall cloud cover, temperatures will respond
by warming into the lower 90s. Overall synoptic pattern will
change little from SUN into MON, with a frontal boundary driven
southward by a shortwave trof traversing the Northern Plains/Upper
Midwest/Great Lakes expected to stall well north of the area by
MON night. Temperatures MON will be a couple of degrees or so
warmer than SUN.

13

LONG TERM [Tuesday through Saturday]...

The long term period continues to look hot and dry, with our next
best chance of rain likely holding out until day 8. Aloft, we start
the long term period beneath a rather large ridge that will remain
in control through the end of the work week. At the surface, weak
high pressure will meander across the Gulf through the week,
providing a persistent light to moderate onshore flow. Onshore flow
will gradually allow low level moisture to creep up through the
week, resulting in more humid days and nights. Even as moisture
pools overhead in the lower levels, rain chances remain near zero
due to dry air/ridging aloft. Lack of showers and plentiful sunshine
will allow temperatures to continue to climb, with highs topping out
in the low to mid-90s each afternoon through the week. Temps will
likely be warmer further inland, due to the lack of a seabreeze.

By the weekend, the upper level ridge finally begins to break down
as a trof dives out of the Pacific NW and across the Plains. With
less of a cap overhead and plenty of moisture to work with, rain
chances look to return over the weekend. Granted, this is several
days out and this trof could end up being less impressive and not
totally breaking down the ridge, like some model runs suggest.
Regardless of how that plays out, don't expect a big rain event,
with the more likely scenario being a return of afternoon scattered
daytime heating type showers. Apart from this next chance of rain,
the weekend looks to continue the trend of above average temps with
more afternoon highs in the 90s/overnight lows in the 70s on tap.

17

MARINE...

West to southwest winds this weekend will become more southerly
during the week and more modest by midweek. Isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms are possible across the coastal waters
east of Intracoastal City during the afternoon and evening hours
today through Sunday.

13

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
401 PM CDT Sat May 14 2022

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-152115-
Vernon-Rapides-Avoyelles-Beauregard-Allen-Evangeline-St. Landry-
Calcasieu-Jefferson Davis-Acadia-Lafayette-Upper St. Martin-
Vermilion-Iberia-St. Mary-Lower St. Martin-West Cameron-East Cameron-
Tyler-Hardin-Jefferson-Orange-Northern Jasper-Northern Newton-
Southern Jasper-Southern Newton-
401 PM CDT Sat May 14 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Louisiana, south
central Louisiana, southwest Louisiana, west central Louisiana and
southeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a chance for showers and thunderstorms to develop later this
afternoon into this evening, mainly east of a Leesville to Lake
Charles line. There is a Marginal Risk (Level 1 out of 5) for severe
weather, with damaging winds and marginally severe hail the potential
hazards. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

A few showers or storms will be possible on Sunday, mainly across
the Acadiana region. Gusty winds and brief heavy rainfall will be
possible in some of the storms.

Rain chances will diminish through the week, with hot temperatures
returning areawide. Daytime highs will be from around 5 to around 10
degrees above normal. Corresponding heat index values will be in the
upper 90s to around 100 degrees each day.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-152115-
Sabine Lake-Calcasieu Lake-Vermilion Bay-
Coastal waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA
out 20 NM-Waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA from
20 to 60 NM-
401 PM CDT Sat May 14 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Gulf of Mexico and the
coastal lakes and bays of the Gulf of Mexico.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

13

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
612 PM CDT Sat May 14 2022

LAZ045-053-142345-
Iberia LA-Upper St. Martin LA-
612 PM CDT Sat May 14 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of north central Iberia
and west central St. Martin Parishes through 645 PM CDT...

At 612 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Loreauville, or near St. Martinville, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
New Iberia, St. Martinville, Jeanerette, Loreauville and Lake Fausse
Pointe.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2991 9166 2990 9166 3003 9188 3019 9184
      3015 9148
TIME...MOT...LOC 2312Z 288DEG 13KT 3007 9180

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

Calhoun

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
636 PM CDT Sat May 14 2022

LAZ045-053-150015-
Iberia LA-Upper St. Martin LA-
636 PM CDT Sat May 14 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of north central Iberia
and west central St. Martin Parishes through 715 PM CDT...

At 636 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
St. Martinville, moving north at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
New Iberia, Catahoula, Breaux Bridge, St. Martinville, Loreauville,
Cade and Parks.

This includes Interstate 10 in Louisiana near mile marker 112.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2995 9170 3005 9191 3031 9189 3023 9155
TIME...MOT...LOC 2336Z 183DEG 10KT 3013 9181

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Calhoun