Flash Flood Warning 10, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
403 PM CDT Fri May 13 2022

.SHORT TERM [Tonight through Sunday]...

Scattered convection has blossomed along the Atchafalaya Basin in
a region of enhanced MSTR convergence and divergence aloft between
an eroding mid/upper ridge over TX and an upper trof over the SE
CONUS. This activity is in an environment characterized by weak
wind shear but more than adequate buoyancy, so the severe weather
risk is limited, but not zero. Pulse-type events appear most
likely as cells move/propagate slowly southward, posing
a risk of downburst winds and perhaps borderline severe hail along
with locally heavy rainfall, though clusters progressing more
quickly along outflows are also possible. Driven largely by
diurnal instability, this activity may linger into early evening
prior to dissipating. Once the convection dies off, a quiet night
is expected with some patchy fog possible overnight into early SAT
morning.

Convective evolution SAT is a bit nebulous and will likely depend
at least in part on residual outflows left over from today. CAM
guidance varies quite a bit, but generally depict the same overall
idea of scattered convection and/or TSTM clusters initiating in
the afternoon and subsequently tracking southward across mainly
east and south central LA, though a few are as far west as the
Sabine River. With perhaps a little more areal involvement to the
clouds/convection, highs may not be quite as warm as today, but
upper 80s to lower 90s are still expected.

The mid/upper level ridge out west will flex a bit eastward on
SUN, which will knock PoPs back down to just a small chance across
the lower Atchafalaya. Assuming any decline tomorrow, highs will
certainly rebound on SUN, with lower to mid 90s expected. As for
low temperatures, little day to day variation is expected, with
readings in the upper 60s to around 70.

13

.LONG TERM [Monday through Friday]...

The long term period will be characterized by several more days of
hot and dry weather, with a repetitive forecast of above average
temperatures and no rainfall expected. At the surface, weak high
pressure will meander over the NWern Gulf at the start of the week,
slowly shifting eastward through the second half of the week as low
pressure amplifies across the Plains. Aloft, ridging will be
situated over the Rockies and Texas, while a shortwave trof will be
located over the eastern Gulf to start the week. With the forecast
area located between these two features, a fairly dry NWerly flow
aloft will be overhead to start the week, helping to suppress any
rain chances.

Moving into the Tue-Wed time frame, shortwave troffing begins to
side east and become absorbed by a larger trof over New England,
while ridging slides eastward as well and begins to flatten
overhead. The broad flat ridge will then remain overhead through the
end of the week resulting in, you guessed it, more dry and hot
weather. With more of a zonal flow aloft, moisture begins to return
to the mid levels, allowing for a bit more cloud cover and some
increase in humidity through the second half of the week, especially
by Friday. However, lack of any good forcing mechanisms both at the
surface and aloft will keep rain at bay. With ridging overhead, no
rain, and plenty of sunshine, temperatures continue to warm up well
above seasonal norms, with highs topping out in the low to mid 90s
each day next week.

17

&&

.MARINE...

Onshore flow will persist through the weekend with isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms possible across the coastal
waters east of Intracoastal City during the afternoon and evening
hours today through Sunday.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  69  90  68  92 /  20  30  10   0
LCH  68  89  69  91 /  10  10  10  10
LFT  70  89  69  90 /  50  30  10  20
BPT  68  90  69  92 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
407 PM CDT Fri May 13 2022

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-142115-
Vernon-Rapides-Avoyelles-Beauregard-Allen-Evangeline-St. Landry-
Calcasieu-Jefferson Davis-Acadia-Lafayette-Upper St. Martin-
Vermilion-Iberia-St. Mary-Lower St. Martin-West Cameron-East Cameron-
Tyler-Hardin-Jefferson-Orange-Northern Jasper-Northern Newton-
Southern Jasper-Southern Newton-
407 PM CDT Fri May 13 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Louisiana, south
central Louisiana, southwest Louisiana, west central Louisiana and
southeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue into this evening
across parts of east and south central Louisiana. There is a
Marginal Risk (Level 1 out of 5) for severe weather, with damaging
winds and marginally severe hail the potential hazards. Locally heavy
rainfall is also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms are possible again Saturday,
mainly across parts of central and south central Louisiana. There is
a Marginal Risk (Level 1 out of 5) for severe weather, with damaging
winds and large hail the potential hazards.

Otherwise, no hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-142115-
Sabine Lake-Calcasieu Lake-Vermilion Bay-
Coastal waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA
out 20 NM-Waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA from
20 to 60 NM-
407 PM CDT Fri May 13 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Gulf of Mexico and the
coastal lakes and bays of the Gulf of Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

13

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
414 PM CDT Fri May 13 2022

LAZ029-132145-
Avoyelles LA-
414 PM CDT Fri May 13 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern
Avoyelles Parish through 445 PM CDT...

At 414 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Lake Ophelia National Wildlife Refuge, or near Bordelonville, moving
south at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Moreauville, Bordelonville, Big Bend, Lake Ophelia National Wildlife
Refuge and Hamburg.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3129 9189 3126 9185 3127 9184 3124 9181
      3122 9178 3122 9176 3120 9174 3120 9172
      3106 9171 3101 9176 3103 9198 3124 9195
      3122 9194 3123 9192 3124 9194 3127 9195
      3130 9193
TIME...MOT...LOC 2114Z 005DEG 7KT 3118 9186

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

Donato

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
454 PM CDT Fri May 13 2022

LAZ045-053-132230-
Iberia LA-Upper St. Martin LA-
454 PM CDT Fri May 13 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of north central Iberia
and central St. Martin Parishes through 530 PM CDT...

At 453 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Butte La Rose, or near Catahoula, moving south at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Catahoula, Loreauville and Butte La Rose.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3007 9139 3005 9179 3033 9177 3034 9163
      3031 9162 3028 9159 3026 9159 3025 9158
      3023 9148 3020 9149 3019 9147 3014 9147
      3013 9146 3011 9147 3010 9147 3010 9140
TIME...MOT...LOC 2153Z 351DEG 18KT 3025 9165

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

Donato