Special Weather Statement, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
637 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022

The upper level low across swrn WY featuring -20C h700mb air will
lift northeast through MT tonight. The Recd jet will send a cold
front through wrn and ncntl Nebraska.

The POP forecast tonight leans on the short term model blend for
chance POPs, mainly across nrn Nebraska. Storm development farther
south will compete with a 14C h700mb cap.

As for severe weather potential, winds aloft are strong and
unidirectional favoring storm splitting. The upper level low will
cause modest cooling aloft across nwrn Nebraska with h700mb temps
falling to around -10C. Little or no cooling aloft is expected
elsewhere. Lapse rates throughout wrn and ncntl Nebraska are
marginal and the culprit is a subtropical plume of moisture
causing a moist adiabatic profiles from h500-300mb. This is
limiting instability. The RAP model suggests the shear may be too
strong relative to the CAPE for severe weather.

The best guess for severe weather would be a wind/hail capable storm
or two across the northwest late this afternoon as suggested by the
CAMS. Some are suggesting an outflow dominant cluster of
strong storms across ncntl Nebraska later this evening.

The upper low lifts into Canada during the day Tuesday and this
should shunt the subtropical moisture plume south into KS. There is
a slight chance the plume cold lift back north Tuesday night and
slight chance POPs are in place across swrn Nebraska. This forecast
is supported mostly by the SREF and less so by the HREF and NAMnest.
The GFS and ECM don't support a rain chance at all.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022

The main forecast interest in the extended is the 2-day heatwave
Thursday and Friday followed by a cold front and thunderstorm
chance Friday night. The models are in very good agreement
building the subtropical ridge across the Matzoth west into Texas
while an upper low drops south along the CA coast. H700mb
temperatures across wrn and ncntl Nebraska warm to 12C-14C
supporting highs in the 90s to near 100F both days.

Humidity remains low with dew points in the 50s to lower 60s which
is surprising since the SREF suggests precipitable water between
1.25 and 1.5 inches.  An upper level disturbance will swing through
the nrn Plains Friday night and interact with a plume of subtropical
moisture. POPs for this event are just 30 to 40 percent which is
modest considering the ECM and GFS suggest the moisture plume is
rich.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 637 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022

A cold front has moved past KVTN and is forecast to pass KLBF near
05Z. Northwest winds behind the front will gust to near 25KT
tonight. Isolated thunderstorms across north central Nebraska will
be VCTS at KLBF through 03Z. Other isolated storms possible at
KLBF vicinity 03Z-05Z. Stronger storms may cause gusty, erratic
winds, lower ceilings, and brief drops in visibility, but outside
of the storms conditions should remain VFR.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for NEZ007-010-027>029-
038.

&&

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...Roberg

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
204 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-211915-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
204 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022 /104 PM MDT Mon Jun 20 2022/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening
across much of the forecast area, especially the Panhandle,
Sandhills, and north central Nebraska. Some storms may become
strong or severe with large hail, damaging winds, locally heavy
rainfall, and frequent lightning the main hazards.

A Heat Advisory remains in effect until early this evening for
portions of north central Nebraska. Heat index values of up to
100 degrees are expected within these areas.

Hot and dry conditions along with gusty winds across southwest
Nebraska will lead to elevated to near-critical fire weather
conditions.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

Daily thunderstorm chances will exist Wednesday through Sunday.
At this time, the threat for severe weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the
NWS.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte

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